There is no reason why Ukraine should entertain a Russian-American proposal that will not bring peace to the country, largely because it is far from clear how the US could enforce such a plan.
Indeed, now is the time to ditch the White House altogether and for Europe – dismissed by the US president as “weak” – to take the lead.
Much is being made of how Ukraine is refusing to give up the land in the Donbas, eastern Ukraine, which remains under its control.
Steve Witkoff, Trump’s envoy sent to talks with the Kremlin – dubbed “Dim Philby” by the British intelligence community for his witless pro-Russian bent – may not understand that doing so would mean Ukraine hands over its most potent line of defence.
He would not comprehend why else it might be a terrible idea. Donald Trump would neither grasp the implications of the concept nor, if he did, would he disapprove.
Put simply, handing over Ukrainian territory is forbidden under the nation’s constitution. Any attempt to do so would cause political meltdown, deep divisions, and threaten to collapse the Kyiv administration.
That is exactly what Russia wants while it uses any peace plan or ceasefire period to rearm and reset for further invasion of Ukraine, or picks another target in the east of Europe.
Witkoff and Trump see Ukraine as a business opportunity. The US administration is now so infected with this nonsense that its own staff, including the president, posts on social media that it also sees Europe as a problem – not Russia.
Meanwhile, Sir Keir Starmer, French president Emanuel Macron and Friedrich Merz, the German chancellor, met in London in an effort to show solidarity with Kyiv before new proposals are carried to Washington.
Merz said he was “sceptical” about the Russian-American peace plans, which endorse Russia’s land grab, enfeeble Ukraine’s military, scupper its plans to join the Nato, and demand unconstitutional presidential elections.
The other leaders have been more circumspect and diplomatic in their language; Starmer is seen as Europe’s Trump Whisperer.
By now, it would be clear that Trump, who believes Europe is soon to be overrun by non-Europeans and is failing to protect democracy, has stripped every branch of US democracy of its leaves and is as fatal to it as Agent Orange.
As Russian expert and former White House adviser Fiona Hill recently told the World of Trouble podcast, Trump so craves the approval of autocrats and the power they wield that he will do anything to achieve it.
This is not only un-European, it is a threat to the fabric that has bound the liberal democracies of the continent for 80 years.
Trump and Russia are trying to cut bonds.
By allowing the US to play honest broker in a mendacious process in which Washington is wholly representing the Russian invaders of a European democracy, Europe is guilty by association and omission.
The Trump administration gives nothing to Ukraine but an intelligence feed. Trump has very little leverage over Ukraine. He has much more over Russia. If the US were to give Ukraine the weapons that it needs, it could win its war and break the Kremlin’s spine.
But the US will not do this.
All the American pressure is on Ukraine to capitulate. If it did so, the rest of Europe would be in grave danger and signal to Vladimir Putin that it isn’t actually prepared to defend the principles upon which it has been built.
Europe could – and should – shoulder the US aside and take over talks that focus on making a real threat against Russia.
One is to use the €300bn of Russian money frozen in Europe to fund Ukraine’s defence.
Another is not to get bogged down in futile commitments of too few troops to defend Ukraine in a future peace deal, but rather sign an all-in multilateral defence treaty with Ukraine, outside of Nato.
Russia does not have the capacity to take on Europe’s forces, woefully small and underfunded though they are at the moment. Ukraine has been single-handedly holding out against Moscow for four years.
Russia is not holding a load of troops in reserve and its best weapons for later use. Putin is fully committed to Ukraine.
If he wants a peace deal, it should, and could, be negotiated from the position of weakness that is Russia’s reality, not the fake power the Trump administration has assigned it.
A defence pact would underwrite Ukraine’s future without the need for lots of troops on the ground. It is in the air where Moscow is outgunned.
A ceasefire has to be on the terms that frighten Moscow with the prospect of a mass attack against its forces inside Ukraine, from Europe’s air forces and long-range missiles that would shatter Putin’s forces.
And the only way to get Putin to agree to a ceasefire that might hold is to threaten him with just that.
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