We know you are still likely wallowing in sorrow after the most Ohio State football defeat at the hands of Michigan. After dominating the rivalry for almost two decades, the tide appears to be turning — for now.
Despite the loss though, there is still a decent chance the Buckeyes can get into the College Football Playoff, In fact, according to the ESPN playoff predictor, which we’ve followed from time to time here at Buckeyes Wire, Ohio State has a better chance of making the playoff than the USC Trojans.
Even more surprising — and I’m not sure I believe this — the model suggests Ohio State has a better chance even if USC beats Utah in Friday night’s Pac-12 Championship game.
Aside from that, there are still some permutations that would get OSU into the final four teams if things break right. Here’s how it all breaks down, with a start of the percentage chances of the top five teams making the playoff with all the favorites winning their conference championship games.
No. 5 - USC Trojans (11-1)
ESPN Chances of Making the College Football Playoff
43%
No. 4 - Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1)
ESPN Chances of Making the College Football Playoff
51%
No. 3 - TCU Horned Frogs (12-0)
ESPN Chances of Making the College Football Playoff
>99%
Michigan Wolverines (12-0)
ESPN Chances of Making the College Football Playoff
>99%
Georgia Bulldogs (12-0)
ESPN Chances of Making the College Football Playoff
>99%
Now, this isn’t the only scenario that is in play, the other one that could be interesting is if TCU loses in the Big 12 Championship game, or if both TCU and USC lose. Since you have to believe both Michigan and Georgia are locked in no matter what happens on Saturday, we’ll focus on these two scenarios.
NEXT … The TCU scenario
Each of the five contenders chances if only TCU loses in the Big 12 Championship game
Each team’s CFP chances according to the ESPN playoff predictor
Georgia | >99%
Michigan | >99%
TCU | 72%
Ohio State | 62%
USC | 56%
Now, what if both TCU and USC lose their conference title games? Here’s how the numbers shake out according to ESPN if that presents itself.
NEXT … If TCU and USC bite the bullet
If both USC and TCU lose their conference championship games
Each team’s CFP chances according to the ESPN playoff predictor
Georgia | >99%
Michigan | >99%
TCU | 87%
Ohio State | 82%
Alabama | 23%
Interestingly enough, USC completely disappears out of the top five here and Ohio State is now given an almost lock of a chance to get into the College Football Playoff. Again, I’m not sure I would subscribe to this, and I don’t see any path for Alabama to get in, but this model says Ohio State is in good shape almost no matter what.
We say the game you really have to look at is Friday night’s Pac-12 Championship game. If USC loses, there’s a good chance Ohio State is in, if not — well, we’re probably looking at a New Year’s Six game either in Miami or Pasadena.
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