So it is England against Asia for the Champions trophy. Against expectation Pakistan and Bangladesh are semi-finalists – there is no surprise India have qualified. This should ensure all sides have vociferous support in Cardiff on Wednesday and at Edgbaston on Thursday. Even better, they say the sun is going to make an appearance as well. A fitting climax to the tournament is in prospect.
Pakistan may not have taken on the role of cornered tigers, a description Imran Khan as captain coined so effectively in the 1992 World Cup in Australasia but Sarfraz Ahmed’s motley side are putting up a good fight. Back then a Pakistan team far more intrinsically gifted than this one were on the brink of being knocked out of the tournament but everything clicked just in time and they went on to beat New Zealand and England in the semi-final and final respectively.
When Pakistan were thrashed by India in their first game there was little prospect of them making the semi-finals but two victories, albeit scrappy ones, against an out-of-sorts South Africa and a butter-fingered Sri Lanka, means Pakistan are two games away from lifting the trophy. That would be quite a heist.
After the defeat of Sri Lanka, Sarfraz, a resourceful captain and batsman (and probably the slowest runner between the wickets in the tournament), quickly remembered beating England in Cardiff in September last year, which was Pakistan’s solitary victory in a five-match series. It was not so difficult for him to recall that game since he scored 90 and was the man of the match. Thanks to Sarfraz, Pakistan chased down England’s 302.
In this tournament Cardiff has tended to produce lower scores than the other two venues and that might well suit Pakistan. Not so long ago England were the team better suited to low-scoring ODIs. Their strength was reckoned to be in the consistency of their pace bowling and their solid rather than swashbuckling batting. In this country they are adept at knocking off totals like the 237 required by Pakistan on Monday.
Now their approach has changed. England have become a good-wicket team. They possess batsmen who can devastate on the benign batting surfaces they now prefer rather than Test style technicians. With all those players capable of delivering pyrotechnics they are well-equipped for high-scoring matches on flat pitches.
Pakistan prefer to play like old England. They do not possess a string of batsmen who can clear the ropes regularly. Most of them, with the exception of Fakhar Zaman, like to take their time but they also possess quality pace bowlers such as Mohammad Amir, Hasan Ali and Junaid Khan, who is looking a far more effective operator than the man he replaced, Wahab Riaz. This trio can exploit the little bit of uneven bounce and seam movement that has been more evident in Cardiff than at Edgbaston and The Oval.
Now the sun is coming out, Pakistan may consider recalling their young leg-spinner, Shadab Khan, for the semi-final in place of Fahim Ashraf, who made a useful debut against Sri Lanka. There is a certain paranoia about playing two spinners in Cardiff because of the short boundary at the Taff end but this may be balanced by England’s traditional hesitancy against wrist-spinners (not that they have been that tentative in their recent dealings with Adam Zampa and Imran Tahir). Expect England to keep the bowling personnel used in their past two games, which means selecting both spinners.
England will start as the favourites after avoiding the rain and romping to three straightforward victories in the group games. The advantage of playing at home in the middle of the domestic season means they have more batsmen down the order capable of contributing. Many of the other sides have struggled badly once four or five wickets have fallen. The lower middle orders have been as rusty as abandoned old bikes.
India are even stronger favourites to win their semi-final at Edgbaston on Thursday. They have lost to Bangladesh only five times in the 33 ODIs between the two and this record has been achieved without home advantage. India have not had a match on home soil against Bangladesh since 1998. These games have not been regarded as great TV revenue creators, which may explain India’s reluctance to issue an invitation on more than three occasions.
In the last series between the sides – in Dhaka in 2015 – Bangladesh won 2-1. Their team have long shed any inferiority complex and are brimful of gnarled old pros two of whom, Shakib Al Hasan and Mahmudullah, shepherded them to victory against New Zealand at Cardiff last week quite brilliantly. Nonetheless it would be astonishing if they could do that at Edgbaston.
