It’s that time of year again, where you consider all that you have and have not watched in the vast world of television. The Emmys are back, more or less kicking off the Hollywood award season with a healthy mix of Emmy stalwarts and beloved newbies. Will voters choose between the head (Severance, with a leading 27 noms) or the heart (The Pitt) for best drama? Will The Studio sweep the comedy awards? Here are our picks for the night:
Drama series
Nominees: Andor, The Diplomat, The Last of Us, Paradise, The Pitt, Severance, Slow Horses, The White Lotus
This is one of the most interesting races for best drama in years, and not just because the absence of the most recent juggernauts – HBO’s Succession and FX’s Shōgun – leaves the field open. Rather, its two frontrunners, Apple TV’s workplace hell Severance and HBO Max’s medical drama The Pitt, distill the current state of the television business. One is the model of 2020s prestige TV – an extremely high-budget ($20m an episode!), cerebral mystery box that paid for top-tier talent and took its sweet time (3 years!) between seasons. The other is old network television finally adapted to a streaming service – fast-paced, single-location, straightforward, making stars rather than hiring them. The Pitt is the feel-good choice here, as an actually enjoyable proof of concept against TV bloat. But it’s likely that Emmy voters will be more impressed by the vague black boxes of Severance’s second season. Still, neither are the best show of the year – that would be Disney+’s Andor, a bafflingly under-discussed comet that somehow slipped through the contraction of the TV business. It is unlikely we will see something like it – politically radical with Disney budget carte blanche – ever again.
Will win: Severance
Should win: Andor
Best comedy series
Nominees: Abbott Elementary, The Bear, Hacks, Nobody Wants This, Only Murders in the Building, Shrinking, The Studio, What We Do in the Shadows
Another interesting race, with beloved veterans (Abbott Elementary, The Bear, Hacks) competing with popular new series (The Studio, Nobody Wants This). Though it’s still nominated as a comedy, most of Hollywood has finally dispensed with the pretense that The Bear – nominated for the season that came out in June 2024 – deserves to win as one. To be fair, last year’s winner, Hacks, was only questionably a comedy this season, as well. Netflix’s Nobody Wants This, created by Hollywood insider Erin Foster, could sneak in the low-key popular favorite everyone enjoyed binging. But never, ever underestimate Hollywood’s navel-gazing self-interest. Apple TV’s The Studio, starring Seth Rogen as a bumbling movie executive failing upwards, is Hollywood’s preferred flavor of self-roast, and there’s almost no way it won’t win.
Will win: The Studio
Should win: Hacks
Best limited or anthology series
Nominees: Adolescence, Black Mirror, Dying for Sex, Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story, The Penguin
Of all the major series awards, this is most predictable; though The Penguin proved that the world of Batman can still be insightful and surprising (if still relentlessly dark), and Michelle Williams gloriously shatters taboos in the lovely Dying for Sex, Netflix’s Adolescence has this on lock. The four-part British series about a 13-year-old boy who murders a female classmate, motivated by online misogyny and toxic masculinity the adults don’t understand, was a genuine watershed cultural moment. It’s now the second-most viewed English-language program in Netflix history, and a fixture in secondary school programs across Europe. A technical achievement – each episode was filmed, impressively, as a continuous take – and thematic lightning rod, Adolescence deserves what it will almost certainly get.
Will win: Adolescence
Should win: Adolescence
Lead actor in a drama series
Nominees: Sterling K Brown (Paradise), Gary Oldman (Slow Horses), Pedro Pascal (The Last of Us), Adam Scott (Severance), Noah Wyle (The Pitt)
It is a crime that Diego Luna is not on this list for his occasionally sublime work anchoring the vast masterpiece that is Andor. Short of that, this is once again a race between Severance and The Pitt, though I wouldn’t discount affection for Gary Oldman as the sour washed-up spy boss in the cult-beloved UK series Slow Horses. Severance may have the edge in the drama category, but Adam Scott is more of a capable ensemble player in its labyrinthine plot than anchoring star. The Pitt, meanwhile, could not work without the flinty empathy and gravitas of Noah Wyle. Add to that the feel-good narrative of the ER veteran returning to a medical drama, and you have yourself a likely win.
Will win: Noah Wyle
Should win: Noah Wyle
Lead actress in a drama series
Nominees: Kathy Bates (Matlock), Sharon Horgan (Bad Sisters), Britt Lower (Severance), Bella Ramsey (The Last of Us), Keri Russell (The Diplomat)
Likewise, the lead actress race is all about narrative. At 77, Kathy Bates is the oldest person to be nominated for a lead actress Emmy for Matlock; she put off retirement to star as a late-in-life lawyer motivated by the opioid death of her daughter. I, too, am caught in swell of goodwill for the Oscar-winning actor – star of Misery, Primary Colors, Titanic and many others – and for a network drama making Emmy inroads. Britt Lower may pull some votes for her subtle work in Severance, and Bella Ramsey deserves attention for the heavy burden that was The Last of Us season two, but Bates is the easy favorite.
Will win: Kathy Bates
Should win: Kathy Bates
Lead actor in a comedy series
Nominees: Adam Brody (Nobody Wants This), Seth Rogen (The Studio), Jason Segel (Shrinking), Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building), Jeremy Allen White (The Bear)
If The Studio hadn’t rocketed into the Emmys with 23 nominations, tying The Bear’s record for a first-time series, this may have been Martin Short’s year to deliver an excellent first-time Emmys speech for the consistently chuckle-worthy Only Murders in the Building. (Former winner Jeremy Allen White has simply grown wearisome as the overburdened, maximally stressed Chef Carmy in The Bear.) But the Studio is on a coke-fueled awards bender, and though the always charming Adam Brody may be the dark horse for Nobody Wants This, Emmys enthusiasm skews heavily to Rogen, whose inherent stoner-guy appeal makes his idiot-in-charge character bearable.
Will win: Seth Rogen
Should win: Adam Brody
Lead actress in a comedy series
Nominees: Uzo Aduba (The Residence), Kristen Bell (Nobody Wants This), Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary), Ayo Edebiri (The Bear), Jean Smart (Hacks)
Jean Smart, a six-time Emmy winner, is in the same position as Julia Louis-Dreyfus in her Veep era: as long as she’s on the show, she will win. Smart has won thrice previously for her late career-defining role as the brittle, brassy comedian Deborah Vance. There’s no reason why she shouldn’t continue her streak for Hacks’ fourth season, for her portrait of just how awful it can be – how vengeful, vicious and wounded one can become – when they get everything they wanted.
Will win: Jean Smart
Should win: Jean Smart
Lead actor in a limited or anthology series
Nominees: Colin Farrell (The Penguin), Stephen Graham (Adolescence), Jake Gyllenhaal (Presumed Innocent), Brian Tyree Henry (Dope Thief), Cooper Koch (Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story)
This one is a toss-up, with strong performances across the board, and it’s nice to see the always excellent Brian Tyree Henry get a nod for Dope Thief, one of many Apple TV series that, like Gyllenhaal’s Presumed Innocent, disappear into the streaming ether soon after release. Given the Emmys preference for awarding shows in bulk, there’s a world in which Adolescence sweeps all of the limited series awards in which its nominated; Stephen Graham certainly deserves for the aching portrait of an aloof father faced with the worse-case scenario. But Colin Farrell, who won the Golden Globe and SAG awards earlier this year for his full vanity disappearance in The Penguin, may have the edge here.
Will win: Colin Farrell
Should win: Stephen Graham
Lead actress in a limited or anthology series
Nominees: Cate Blanchett (Disclaimer), Meghann Fahy (Sirens), Rashida Jones (Black Mirror), Cristin Milioti (The Penguin), Michelle Williams (Dying for Sex)
Look, Cate Blanchett is, indisputably, one of the best actors of her generation, but the muddled Apple TV show Disclaimer is not a worthy showcase of her talents. In a similar vein, I want awards for Meghann Fahy, who was the deceptively nuanced true star of the White Lotus’s second season, but Netflix’s Sirens was outright bad, and her performance in it iffy. Cristin Milioti is delivering career-best work in the Penguin, but voter preference will skew toward the perennially nominated Michelle Williams, whose performance in Dying for Sex is up to her very high standards – spiky, layered, vulnerable and totally convincing.
Will win: Michelle Williams
Should win: Michelle Williams
Scripted variety series
Nominees: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver, Saturday Night Live
I maintain that it is not fair to pit the thoroughly researched, impeccably delivered deep dives of Last Week Tonight against the deliberately loose sketch comedy of Saturday Night Live. I also maintain that Last Week Tonight is a singular television program whose constant drive to be better, to cut through bullshit, to be more empathetic and reasonable, deserves a 10th consecutive Emmy.
Will win: Last Week Tonight
Should win: Last Week Tonight
Talk series
Nominees: The Daily Show, Jimmy Kimmel Live!, The Late Show With Stephen Colbert
As someone who watches every late-night monologue every morning for work, I personally think the Daily Show – Jon Stewart plus a rotating cast of five correspondent-hosts (Jordan Klepper, Desi Lydic, Michael Kosta, Ronny Chieng and Josh Johnson) – is doing the best work at processing the day’s headlines in a way that is both informative and funny, with the appropriate amount of seriousness and cynicism. But this award will almost certainly be the first and only talk series win for the Late Show with Stephen Colbert, after CBS cancelled the flagship program during the middle of an $8bn merger seeking Trump administration approval. This will be one of the speeches to look out for, as I doubt Colbert will pull many punches.
Will win: The Late Show with Stephen Colbert
Should win: The Daily Show
Supporting actor in a drama series
Nominees: Zach Cherry (Severance), Walton Goggins (The White Lotus), Jason Isaacs (The White Lotus), James Marsden (Paradise), Sam Rockwell (The White Lotus), Tramell Tillman (Severance), John Turturro (Severance)
Finally, we have the time-honored Emmy tradition of a White Lotus-off: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs and much-ballyhooed guest star Sam Rockwell compete for the show’s middling third season, while John Turturro, Zach Cherry and Tramell Tillman represent the stacked Severance cast. Tillman deserves for his unnerving and unforgettable performance as a corporate henchman, but I bet voters prefer Goggins’s especially miserable tourist.
Will win: Walton Goggins
Should win: Tramell Tillman
Supporting actress in a drama series
Nominees: Patricia Arquette (Severance), Carrie Coon (The White Lotus), Katherine LaNasa (The Pitt), Julianne Nicholson (Paradise), Parker Posey (The White Lotus), Natasha Rothwell (The White Lotus), Aimee Lou Wood (The White Lotus)
Another, more exciting White Lotus-off! I would’ve liked to see Leslie Bibb nominated as well for her pitch-perfect portrayal of a secret Texas Republican, or for Katherine LaNasa to get more attention for her radiant calm on the Pitt. But this is a heavyweight supporting category between Aimee Lou Wood’s deceptively difficult work, Parker Posey’s North Carolina accent and Carrie Coon’s magnificent portrayal of feral love and jealousy in a friend triangle.
Will win: Carrie Coon
Should win: Aimee Lou Wood
Supporting actor in a comedy series
Nominees: Ike Barinholtz (The Studio), Colman Domingo (The Four Seasons), Harrison Ford (Shrinking), Jeff Hiller (Somebody Somewhere), Ebon Moss-Bachrach (The Bear), Michael Urie (Shrinking), Bowen Yang (Saturday Night Live)
The recognition of Jeff Hiller’s heartfelt and genuinely funny work on the under-sung Somebody Somewhere is a classic case of the nomination is the win. There’s a lot of love for Ike Barinholtz’s physical comedy as a coke-addled exec in The Studio, and residual affection for Ebon Moss-Bachrach’s beloved Cousin Richie on the Bear, but it’s hard to beat the narrative of national treasure Harrison Ford getting his first Emmy nomination at age 83.
Will win: Harrison Ford
Should win: Jeff Hiller
Supporting actress in a comedy series
Nominees: Liza Colón-Zayas (The Bear), Hannah Einbinder (Hacks), Kathryn Hahn (The Studio), Janelle James (Abbott Elementary), Catherine O’Hara (The Studio), Sheryl Lee Ralph (Abbott Elementary), Jessica Williams (Shrinking)
The Bear’s Liza Colón-Zayas won last year, likely because her standout episode in the Bear’s third season, Napkins, aired in June and was fresh in Emmy voters minds. Because of Emmy timing, she’s up for that deserving episode now, but the tide has shifted against the Bear. Hannah Einbinder has yet to win for her yin to Jean Smart’s yang on Hacks, and this is her year.
Will win: Hannah Einbinder
Should win: Liza Colón-Zayas
Supporting actor in a limited or anthology series
Nominees: Javier Bardem (Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story), Bill Camp (Presumed Innocent), Owen Cooper (Adolescence), Rob Delaney (Dying For Sex), Peter Sarsgaard (Presumed Innocent), Ashley Walters (Adolescence)
This is another tight lock – the power of Adolescence as a “wake-up call” on the influence of online misogyny on young boys does not work if the actor playing the boy doesn’t invoke both revulsion and empathy. Owen Cooper will and should win.
Will win: Owen Cooper
Should win: Owen Cooper
Supporting actress in a limited or anthology series
Nominees: Erin Doherty (Adolescence), Ruth Negga (Presumed Innocent), Deirdre O’Connell (The Penguin), Chloë Sevigny (Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story), Jenny Slate (Dying for Sex), Christine Tremarco (Adolescence)
Another likely Adolescence win for Erin Doherty as a child psychologist uncovering horrifying thoughts, though I’d like to see an award for Jenny Slate expertly balancing despair and silliness as the incredibly disorganized but emotionally reliable best friend to a terminal cancer patient.
Will win: Erin Doherty
Should win: Jenny Slate
