The Liberal Democrats will win more seats than the Conservatives because of the electoral system if polling stays the same, elections expert Sir John Curtice has said.
He told a fringe panel at the Conservative Party conference in Manchester that the party needs to make it to “base camp” before they can think about climbing the electoral “Himalayas” of getting back into government.
Recent YouGov polling showed the Liberal Democrats on 15 points, one behind Kemi Badenoch’s party on 16. Reform led on 29%.
Addressing Tory members at the event run by think tank Demos, Sir John said: “The Liberal Democrat vote is now much more geographically concentrated than your vote, and the electoral system is now treating you like it treated the Liberal Democrats.
“And so the Liberal Democrats are just behind you in the polls, they are going to almost undoubtedly win more seats than you.”
He told the event that the coalition of voters Boris Johnson assembled in 2019 had all but broken up, with Reform UK taking the vast majority of its voters. He indicated that many lost Conservative voters from last year’s election had gone to Nigel Farage’s party.
He showed the event polling that indicated the Tories are no more popular among Brexit voters than Remain voters from the 2016 election.
He said: “The Johnsonian coalition of 2019 has been ripped from underneath you by Reform. And so that realignment of British politics that occurred in 2019, it’s still there, don’t think that Brexit doesn’t matter in our politics. It’s fundamental.
“But your problem now is that basically you do not now occupy either the pro-EU or the anti-EU space.”
In response to a question where he was asked what the current risk was to the Tories, Sir John said: “The Conservative Party potentially loses its role as a significant governing party in the UK. I mean, I think it is that serious.”
He added: “You’ve got to get yourself back to base camp. At the moment, you frankly can’t even see the Himalayas.”
Instead of tackling Reform head-on on immigration, he said Mrs Badenoch’s party should focus on the economy or the health service rather than try to “out-Reform Reform”.
“In going for the front line of your opponents, you’re going to be going where they are best reinforced,” Sir John said.
“An alternative tactical battle, depending on the geography, may be to think about going around the flanks at the side. Which are perhaps not quite so well defended.
“And given that you are losing ground, not just on immigration but on the economy… but at least on the economy, there is still a modicum of trust in you amongst 2024 Conservative voters. This is the issue, as it were, they look as though they might be more likely to be won back.”
