Open season?
The view at last week’s Six Nations launch was that this would be the most unpredictable tournament for years. It’s a prediction that will be tested on the opening weekend when last year’s top three meet the bottom three.
Scotland welcome Ireland having beaten them just three times in the 17 years of the Six Nations. France travel to Twickenham where they have not won in the championship since 2005 and, on Sunday, Italy face Wales 10 years from their last victory over them.
The Six Nations has been two divisions for too long. France won the title in 2010, but since then it has been shared by England, Wales and Ireland. The tournament needs to be shaken up. Scotland have the potential, as they showed last year, but they will need belief against Ireland.
France are coming from further back. They have tightened up defensively under Guy Novès, but in attack they remain mired in the ordure of the Top 14, a league that is a slog with few matches raising pulse rates.
England won the Six Nations last year despite barely getting out of second gear. They should have been carrying the worst of the World Cup hangovers after an early elimination from their own tournament but the restorative powers of Eddie Jones had an immediate effect.
Jones is England’s best selector since the era of Clive Woodward, and placed his faith in George Ford at outside-half despite the player’s mediocre club form a year ago as he struggled to get over being dropped for England’s World Cup match against Wales. Ford was a different player for England, attacking the line and releasing runners with Jones opting to play more through his No10 than No9, the southern hemisphere way.
Scotland are doing that through Finn Russell and Italy are pushing Carlo Canna, a dangerous runner who needs to show he can command a game. Ireland’s Jonathan Sexton operates in tandem with his half-back Conor Murray and will be missed at Murrayfield while Wales until recently have used their 10 to kick or bring in big runners on the crash.
Wales spent the summer and autumn talking about being bold but the players did appear to believe it. Before the 1988 Five Nations, the then Wales coach Tony Gray was frustrated at a lack of response after telling his players he wanted a back division containing Robert Jones, Jonathan Davies, Bleddyn Bowen, Mark Ring, Adrian Hadley and Ieuan Evans to play with freedom and width.
He provided a lightbulb moment before the opening match against England at Twickenham when he dropped the full-back Paul Thorburn and replaced him with an outside-half, Tony Clement, whose experience as the last line of defence could be counted in minutes. By removing the crutch of one of the best goal-kickers in the world, Gray’s message finally got through.
It was tough on Thorburn, who was dropped to encourage the rest. He returned the next game and kicked the points that clinched the triple crown in Dublin, but Howley needs to be bold in deed as well as word. Dan Biggar was one of Wales’s standout players in the World Cup, but he prefers to stand back rather than attack the line, unlike his rival for the No10 jersey, Sam Davies.
If Wales are to maximise the awareness of Scott Williams at inside-centre and bring George North into the game frequently rather than when the ball is kicked to him, they need an outside-half in the mould of Ford, Beauden Barrett and Bernard Foley. It would be horribly hard on Biggar, but Davies looks Wales’s catalyst-in-waiting: if he has half the rugby brain of his father, the former Wales centre Nigel, he will be well equipped.
Wales’s attack coach this tournament is Alex King who was released by Northampton earlier this season where, after a promising start, he failed to ignite a predictable attack. He had a deep-lying outside-half at Franklin’s Gardens in Stephen Myler, but as a player King attacked the line from No10.
It is the prospect of scheming outside-halves that makes the Six Nations tempting, not bonus points or the fear of red cards after the high tackle directive. With world rankings counting in May’s World Cup draw, there is everything to play for. And play is the word.
This is an extract taken from the Breakdown, the Guardian’s weekly rugby union email. To subscribe just visit this page and follow the instructions.
