Whatever the final result of the elections in the Netherlands, there is one thing you can be sure of – a lengthy round of negotiations.
The fragmented nature of the Dutch politics scene has been well-documented. With 28 parties competing in the election and places in lower house of the Dutch parliament decided proportionally from the national vote – with 0.67 per cent need to secure a seat – there is little prospect of one party having secured a clear enough majority to rule on their own.
Around 15 parties expect to pass the threshold to get into the 150-seat parliament, with not much to choose between a number of parties in the polls. According to the final data from the Peilingwijzer – which assembles data from a range of pollsters – Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s centre-right VVD were expected to win the most seats at between 24 and 28. No party appears likely to claim any more than 17 per cent of the vote.
Geert Wilders and his far-right Freedom Party (PVV) were settled in second place in the polls, with the Christian Democrats (CDA) and the progressive liberals of Democrats 66 (D66) polling at similar levels. Therein lies the problem for Wilders – almost all of the leading parties, including those mentioned above and the liberal Green Left and the Socialist Party, have ruled out working with Wilders or his party.
Experts predict a coalition-building process that could potentially take months, with at least four parties seemingly required to pull together a 76-seat majority. And while informal discussions can begin as soon as the election is over, the process will not formally begin until 21 March when the Electoral Commission posts the official final results online.
Mr Rutte's last government – after his party finished top in elections in 2012 – was a two-party coalition with the Labour Party after the VVD took 40 seats. However, in a sign that the landscape has become even more fragmented, the Labour Party looks likely to take as few as 10 seats this time around.
Once negotiations have finished, there is expected to be the first such multi-party alliance since three in the 1970s. Two of those fell apart within 12 months.
Wilders has form when it comes to coalitions, dating back to elections in 2010 that produced a minority government led by Mr Rutte and including the Christian Democratic Appeal party. Wilders and his party were not part of the coalition, but supported it, until he walked away over the implementation of austerity measures and caused the government’s collapse.
With a high voter turnout on the cards, lending further unpredictability to proceedings, Wilders is sure to make noise about being shut out if he ends up as head of the party with the most votes. Having Wilders in such a strong position would be a crisis for the other parties, and could potentially lead to stalemate if all stick to their pledge to keep his party out of any coalition. For Wilders, being the opposition would likely suit him and his worldview – he revels in his outsider status. Either way, there will likely be weeks of uncertainty.
