- In today’s CEO Daily: Diane Brady on the reputation of the Fed.
- The big story: Trump administration moves against political opponents.
- The markets: Global markets are mixed; U.S. futures are down.
- Plus: All the news and watercooler chat from Fortune.
Good morning. I remember the days when a raised eyebrow from Ben Bernanke would spark hours of debate over the then Fed chair’s mindset about the state of the economy. His predecessor, Alan Greenspan, bragged about learning to “mumble with great incoherence.” The model of the inscrutable U.S. central banker illustrated the power and prestige of the Fed, evoking a need to be flexible and deflect any market reaction to anticipated interest rate shifts that might not come to pass.
Fast forward to today and, as one Fortune 500 CEO told me this week, “it’s a circus over there.” Later today, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to announce the central bank’s first interest rate cut since December. In discussions this week, I casually asked some leaders about what they thought the Fed might do. Their reaction was quite different from the days of yore. There was concern about the Fed’s ability to manage inflation and maintain a stable financial system. “They didn’t act fast enough on inflation under Biden and they’re not acting fast enough on a shift in the labor market under Trump,” observed one.
This moment feels particularly fraught. There is, of course, the hope that a 0.25 percentage point cut might boost consumer confidence, corporate spending, homebuying, investing, hiring, and all the other good things that lower interest rates are meant to do. The challenge for leaders there, is that there are so many other variables creating volatility in those areas, from tariffs to technology.
But recent drama at the Fed has made some leaders worry about the health and reputation of the institution itself. President Trump has threatened to fire Powell, unsuccessfully tried to oust Governor Lisa Cook on unproven allegations of fraud, and appointed White House advisor Stephen Miran (who Fortune profiled back in May) as a governor earlier this week while continuing to push the Fed to cut rates. If there is a rate cut, the President could claim victory, making “the credibility of the Fed further erode.”
Most of the leaders I spoke to thought the best time to assess the impact of all this may not be today, but rather in the days and weeks ahead. One common belief that I certainly share in this climate: Bond yields, stock prices, hiring, borrowing, buying or any other metric may not move in a predictable pattern, no matter what the Fed decides to do.
Contact CEO Daily via Diane Brady at diane.brady@fortune.com
