Derrick Brown is one of the primary potential targets for the Detroit Lions with the 3rd pick in next week’s NFL Draft. Nothing against the Auburn defensive tackle, but history says taking anyone at his position at that spot is a poor decision.
The No. 3 overall pick has been used four times on a defensive tackle since 2000. Two of the players selected even earned All-Pro berths on their rookie contracts, but it ultimately did not help their respective teams enough.
Quinnen Williams, 2019
Too early to evaluate the returns on Williams, the 3rd pick in 2019. The Jets tabbed Williams third overall and he was an instant starter. Williams bagged 2.5 sacks as a rookie after notching eight in his final season with the Crimson Tide.
Williams looks like a solid player after one season. But his impact on the Jets’ success was negligible. New York was 29th in 2018 in both scoring defense and yards allowed. In 2019 with Williams, they improved to 25th and 27th, respectively. The Jets improved from 4-12 to 7-9 but it came from the offense, which rocketed from 29th in scoring to 7th from 2018 to 2019.
Marcell Dareus, 2011
Dareus, like Williams an Alabama product, headed to Buffalo as the third pick in the 2011 NFL Draft. He’s also the most apples-to-apples comparison with Brown of the four players here.
Dareus was a 6-foot-3, 319-pound tackle with just modest collegiate production. In his final season with the Crimson Tide, Dareus picked up four sacks and 11 TFLs while playing on a talented line. Brown’s stats from 2019 for Auburn: four sacks, 12.5 TFLs. Both of them broke up four passes, too.
Now look at the scouting report blurbs from NFL.com for each. Dareus is up first,
“Possesses the athleticism and explosiveness to be consistently disruptive against the run and pass. Hands that don’t stop, sheds blockers quickly, and frequently uses the swim move to get to the quarterback. Also has great power to push the pocket and stand his ground adequately when run at. Blessed with great feet and outstanding lateral quickness.”
Here’s Brown,
“Defensive tackle with rare combination of size and disruptive traits who frequently bludgeoned inferior competition across from him. Brown’s snap quickness allows him to take muddy running lanes by re-setting the line of scrimmage. He has the ability to power into gaps, but he really shines when he drops his anchor to stall double-teams or punch, press and prey on runners as a two-gapper. Brown’s upright rush style means he might be more of a pressure rusher than a sack-man, but he should keep improving as a rusher with more dedication to the craft.”
Not identical by any means, but there are definite stylistic similarities and size (Brown weighs 326).
Dareus wound up being a very good player for the Bills. He bagged 5.5 sacks in each of his first two seasons then stepped up even farther. In 2013 Dareus earned a Pro Bowl berth with 71 total tackles and 7.5 sacks. That’s incredible production for an interior lineman. The 2014 season saw Dareus earn his only All-Pro nod and double-digit sack season.
Despite his strong play, the impact on the overall defense was underwhelming. Buffalo’s defense ranked 22nd, 25th and 22nd in those first three seasons and the team finished 6-10 all three years. That All-Pro season in 2014 helped spike the defense to 12th, but it was the radical upshot from the offense that carried the Bills to a 9-7 record. The Bills offense shot up from ranking 30th, 26th and 20th in those first three seasons to 4th overall.
It went downhill quickly for Dareus thereafter. He signed a $100 million contract on the first week of the 2015 season. For that investment, the Bills got six more sacks over 2.5 more seasons, one of them interrupted by a 4-game suspension. They dumped him on the Jaguars for a 6th round pick at the 2017 trade deadline. In Jacksonville, Dareus did see his first — and only, to date — postseason action that year. The Jaguars managed to get three sacks and 45 total tackles in three seasons before letting him walk this past offseason.
Gerald McCoy, 2010
McCoy headed to Tampa Bay one spot after the Lions grabbed Ndamukong Suh. The Bucs landed a very good player right away.
McCoy fired out with 28 tackles and three sacks as a rookie before an injury robbed him of nearly a full season. He came back with a vengeance. In 2012, McCoy earned the first of six straight Pro Bowl nods. He was an All-Pro in 2013 with a career-high 9.5 sacks. No doubt McCoy has been a very good player.
But it didn’t really help the Buccaneers.
McCoy never tasted the postseason in his nine seasons in Tampa Bay. The Bucs defense improved from 27th to 15th in his rookie year and they won 10 games, but the offensive improvement centered around QB Josh Freeman’s one competent NFL season (the Bucs improved from 27th to 9th) was the primary reason for the win total.
The Bucs’ ranks on defense thereafter:
2011 – 31st
2012 – 17th
2013 – 28th
2014 – 28th. Remember, this was McCoy’s All-Pro season.
2015 – 25th
2016 – 22nd
2017 – 18th
2018 – 23rd
Despite having McCoy, one of the NFL’s best DTs for the better part of a decade, the Buccaneers never once finished with a defense that ranked in the upper half of the league. They lost 10 or more games six times in eight years.
Gerard Warren, 2001
Warren joined the Browns as the third pick in 2001 and made a nice splash as a rookie (notice a theme?), bagging five sacks and 61 total tackles. The Browns did manage a playoff berth in 2002 with Warren chipping in 40 tackles and two sacks.
Warren was a solid starter for nearly a decade, bouncing around four NFL teams. He never made a Pro Bowl and never touched his rookie productivity again. His career never quite met expectations for a No. 3 pick even though he was a good, reliable player for a long time. Ironically, Warren had the most postseason success of any player here, including nearly winning Super Bowl XLVI with the Patriots after the 2011 season and also getting a nice run with the Broncos after the 2005 campaign in his first year in Denver.
The long and the short of it all: even very good defensive tackles have a difficult time impacting the overall defensive success, and even less success impacting the win column. The history tells us it’s simply not worthy of bypassing an equivalent talent at a more integral position (EDGE, QB, CB, WR, OT) to use the No. 3 pick on an interior defensive lineman.
