Dow Jones futures rose slightly Sunday night, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. Tesla deliveries, the September jobs report and a possible government shutdown headline the coming week.
The stock market rally retreated from record highs during the week, but the major indexes rebounded from key levels, finishing only modestly lower. Growth stocks, especially highly extended speculative plays, saw sharper losses.
Palantir Technologies, Snowflake, Roblox, Zscaler and DoorDash are setting up near buy points.
Palantir is on IBD Leaderboard, with Tesla stock on the Leaderboard watchlist. Palantir stock is on the IBD 50, IBD Big Cap 20 and IBD Sector Leaders.
DoorDash was Friday's IBD Stock Of The Day. Roblox stock was Tuesday's pick.
Dow Jones Futures Today
Dow Jones futures rose 0.2%. S&P 500 futures advanced 0.3%. Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.3%.
Crude oil futures fell slightly. OPEC+ is expected to hike output yet again next month to regain market share from U.S. shale operators and more, according to multiple reports Sunday, citing sources.
Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn't necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.
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Stock Market Rally
The stock market rally lost ground but the major indexes rallied off Thursday's intraday lows near their 21-day moving averages to finish above their 10-day lines.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.15% in last week's stock market trading. The S&P 500 index gave up 0.3%. The Nasdaq composite lost 0.65%. The small-cap Russell 2000 shed 0.6%.
Leading stocks suffered bigger losses. Some found support while others, such as Astera Labs, did not.
The overall picture still suggests the market is in a normal, modest, healthy pullback. Arguably a bigger pullback could be constructive as well, removing some hyper-bullishness among aggressive traders.
Some highfliers have taken some knocks but others could be setting up. Whether those setups flash buy signals that work will depend on the broader market.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose five basis points to 4.185%. Economic data continues to come in stronger than expected, though Friday's PCE inflation data was steady. Friday's jobs report will be important as investors look ahead to the late October Fed meeting.
A partial government shutdown could start after Tuesday, which could suspend the release of the jobs report and other economic data. Usually markets aren't that affected by a shutdown initially, but could weigh on stocks and bonds if it persists.
U.S. crude oil futures jumped 5.3% to $65.72 a barrel last week.
Stocks In A Bubble? Here's What The Data Says.
ETFs
Among growth ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF tumbled 4% last week. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF declined 1.9%. Palantir is the No. 1 holding in IGV, with Zscaler stock also in the ETF. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF gained 1.9%.
ARK Innovation ETF declined 2.1% last week and ARK Genomics ETF shed 2.1%. Tesla stock is the No. 1 holding across ARK Invest's ETFs, with Palantir a big component as well.
SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF popped 2.2% last week. SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF sank 2.3%. The Energy Select SPDR ETF rallied 3.9% and the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund declined 1.3%. The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund slipped 0.3%.
The Financial Select SPDR ETF lost 0.7%.
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Tesla Deliveries, FSD Update Due
Tesla should report third-quarter EV deliveries and production on Thursday, Oct. 2, before the stock market open. More-recent estimates have Tesla deliveries at 475,000-500,000, above a year earlier and potentially a record high.
Q3 deliveries are getting a boost from the $7,500 U.S. tax credit, which expires Sept. 30. After that, U.S. sales are expected to tumble and remain weak for at least some time. European and China sales are on track to fall vs. Q3 2024.
But Tesla stock enthusiasm has focused on self-driving hopes, with analyst price target hikes fanning the flames. So deliveries may not be the biggest Tesla news of the week.
Elon Musk on Thursday said that Full Self-Driving V14 will have an "early wide" release this coming week, with further updates over the coming week. Musk has said Tesla "robotaxis" likely will not need safety monitors or drivers by year-end, though there have been no indications that FSD is ready to make the leap.
Tesla stock rose 3.4% to 440.40 last week, bringing the four-week rally to 31.9%. Shares are closing in on the late December record high of 488.54.
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Stocks Near Buy Points
Palantir stock fell 2.6% for the week to 177.57, but only to the 10-day line. On a weekly chart, PLTR stock has a cup-with-handle base with a 185.75 buy point. On a daily chart, the AI software play has a cup base with a 190 entry, but 185.75 is an early entry that could soon also be a handle.
Snowflake stock fell 2.5% to 224.64, continuing to find 21-day line support. The short-term high of 231.94 could offer an entry of an emerging base that started with the Aug. 28 earnings gap-up.
Zscaler stock edged up 0.1% to 294.65, rebounding solidly from Thursday's lows to finish the week right on a 294.65 early entry. The traditional buy point is 318.46.
Roblox stock has a 139.97 cup-with-handle buy point, according to MarketSurge. RBLX stock inched down 0.1% to 135.06 for the week, but found 21-day and 10-week line support, climbing 2.8% on Friday. The relative strength line is at a 52-week high on a weekly chart.
DoorDash stock retreated 1.1% to 262.47 for the week, giving it a cup-with-handle buy point of 269.06. DASH stock has been finding 21-day line support recently.
What To Do Now
The stock market rally seems to have had a normal pullback.
Investors may have wanted to scale back in the past week, whether to take partial profits on extended winners, cut losers, or simply to rein in exposure. Still, it's a time to be heavily invested.
Work on those watchlists. If the market makes a clear move higher, a number of stocks are going to flash buy signals. Which ones, if any, would you buy? Meanwhile, the indexes breaking decisively below their 21-day lines would trigger more sell signals.
So be prepared and stay engaged, remaining flexible about your next moves.
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