Bill Belichick’s plan at quarterback remains a mystery.
The New England Patriots coach watched Tom Brady depart in free agency, much like Belichick has done with so many other aging veterans. He let someone else — in this case, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers — give Brady an enormous contract. Time will tell whether that decision proves wise.
The strangest thing about Belichick’s decision, however, was that he doesn’t seem to have a contingency plan. At least, nothing has materialized — yet. The Patriots coach has acquired just one player since the open of the tampering period: receiver Damiere Byrd. Beyond that, the Patriots have actually lost six starters to free agency or trades.
So here are the breadcrumbs we’re following about the Patriots’ next quarterback.
Analyzing the current roster
Let’s start here, because you know that’s what Belichick will do. Here’s what Belichick thought about Stidham back in October.
“Jarrett is a smart kid,” he said. “He picks things up very quickly. He has a good grasp of the offense given where he is in his career. He’s handled everything we’ve thrown at him. In practice, he does a good job. He gets a lot of passes on our defense and when he has the opportunity to get the offensive snaps, he’s prepared and does a good job of those. But you know, it’s always different in the game. I think he’s doing all he can do.”
And what about Cody Kessler? Here’s what he said about him in October.
“Cody’s done a nice job for us,” Belichick said. “He’s really smart. He’s come in here, he’s learned. He’s out there calling plays, signaling receivers, making adjustments like he’s been here longer than the two weeks or whatever it is. He’s picked things up very quickly and has a good rapport with all of the players and is willing to do whatever we’ve asked him to do.”
Clearly, Belichick likes them both. Because the coach has yet to be aggressive about acquiring a quarterback, we can deduce — for now — that he thinks one of them is starting-caliber. Of course, that deduction could change if the Patriots acquire someone else, whether by trade or free agency.
So what are his options there?
Analyzing the cap space for free agency
Who can the Patriots afford? Well, it’s a tricky question. The Patriots seem to have around $10 million in cap space. They freed up $4.5 million on Wednesday by trading Duron Harmon to the Detroit Lions.
That should make them players for just about every option on the free agency market. But if they were to trade guard Joe Thuney, they could free up another $15 million. And if they were to renegotiate deals with Dont’a Hightower and Stephon Gilmore, then the Patriots might have somewhere near $30 million.
They might even throw a decent deal at Jameis Winston, who could make around $15 million on a one-year contract. He’s probably the best remaining quarterback on the free agency market. What is more likely, however, is that the Patriots target someone like Blake Bortles, who made just $1 million last year with the Rams. They could wipe the dust off an undervalued player, who has a bad reputation from a bad situation.
But the free agency market is hardly their only option.
Analyzing the trade market
If the Patriots renegotiated veteran contracts or traded Thuney, they’d be free to inquire about just about any option on the market. New England could try to trade for Cam Newton ($18.6 million) and Andy Dalton ($17.5 million). They could also go after Brian Hoyer or Jacoby Brissett. And they might even target my favorite option: Dolphins quarterback Josh Rosen.
The Panthers just signed Teddy Bridgewater, the Bengals are likely to draft Joe Burrow and the Chargers just signed Philip Rivers. The quarterbacks on those depth charts should be available.
Analyzing the NFL draft
The Patriots pick at 23rd overall, and they have four picks in the top 100 selections. But it seems that there are just four quarterbacks who can start on Day 1 in this year’s draft class: Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert and Jordan Love. Those players are almost surely going to be off the board at No. 23. So would Belichick package picks to trade up for one of them? Perhaps if Tagovailoa, an Alabama product, slips down the board.
Otherwise, the Patriots might elect to draft a player like Georgia’s Jake Fromm, who may well be ready to start in year one — but he may not be much of an upgrade from Stidham or Kessler.
