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Radio France Internationale
Radio France Internationale
World
Jan van der Made

Divided Romania faces uncertain future despite rejecting the far right

A rainbow over Bucharest, where a new government will soon be facing economic and diplomatic obstacles. © RFI/Jan van der Made

Romania’s new president Nicusor Dan is stepping into office amid deep political and social divisions, as fallout from Sunday’s run-off election exposes the scale of public frustration and mistrust. Economic pressures are mounting, and the far right is already regrouping.

Dan, a pro-European centrist, defeated far-right leader George Simion in Sunday’s run-off vote. The result was clear-cut – but the campaign exposed how fractured Romania has become.

"We're relieved, because we dodged the bullet," says Claudiu Nasui, an MP for the Save Romania Union party. "A Simion presidency would have been potentially disastrous for Romania."

But, he warns, now is the time to look ahead.

"Romania has a huge deficit problem, huge economic problems – we need to solve those problems [before] the next elections, if we don't want to just be dodging bullet after bullet."

The state of Romania's economy could require the new government to take unpopular measures, such as increasing taxes and cutting spending – while the far-right opposition will be eager for the chance to garner more popular support if such measures are seen as too harsh.

Reflecting on the outcome, Nasui said: "People are tired of being ignored by the political class,” speaking to RFI in the cavernous central hall of the parliament building in Bucharest, designed by communist dictator Nicolae Ceausescu.

Claudiu Nasui, an MP for Save Romania Union, speaks to RFI in the Romanian parliament on 19 May. © RFI/Jan van der Made

Sorin Ionita, political scientist and director of the public policy think tank Expert Forum in Bucharest, described the scale of Dan’s victory as unexpected.

“It was surprising in terms of magnitude, we didn't expect a seven points difference after the first round, when the winner ended up 20 percent behind. But still this happened and it shows how volatile the situation was."

During the first round, the turnout was 53.2 percent, but the second round saw a historic 64.7 percent, the highest in 25 years. "The turnout made all the difference," says Ionita.

Romania at a crossroads: confronting communist nostalgia on election day

That the pro-EU candidate won by a comfortable margin means that "when the stakes are very high [Romanians] felt it is about something more than just one party or the other, or one coalition versus the other," says Ionita. "It was an existential issue: security and identity. What is the geostrategic direction of Romania? So it's not just about left or right with more taxes or less taxes."

The Romanian parliament buidling, designed by communist dictator Nicolae Ceausescu as his personal palace. © RFI/Jan van der Made

'Simion became ridiculous in the eyes of voters'

Aside from domestic economic challenges, Dan also faces hurdles in foreign policy.

His rival, Simion – leader of the far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians and a self-proclaimed Trumpist who wanted to "make Romania great again" – may have been better placed to deal with the United States president, but Dan will continue to try and strengthen Romania's crucial NATO connection and its growing integration within the European Union.

Why are Romanians abroad voting for far-right candidate Simion?

"Trump doesn't care very much for 'small leaders' no matter how sycophantic they are. They don't give you an exception on tariffs, so you don't benefit much by copying the MAGA discourse. By doing that, Simion became ridiculous in the eyes of the Romanian people and the voters," said Ionita.

Soren Ionita of the Expert Forum think tank in Bucharest, 19 May. © RFI/Jan van der Made

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Europe has sought to beef up its eastern flank, and France leads NATO's multinational battle group in Romania of 1,200 troops.

But Simion, speaking two days ahead of the second round 18 May vote, accused French President Emmanuel Macron of interference in the Romanian election.

The AUR leader spent the last day of his election campaign in Paris. During a joint press conference with French far-right MEP Marion Maréchal, broadcast live on his Facebook page, he denounced what he called Macron's "dictatorial tendencies", shouting: "Hands off!"

Romanian far-right candidate accuses Macron of election interference

On Sunday, 18 May, Pavel Durov, the Russian-born founder of the Telegram messaging service, also published bombastic claims accusing the head of the French secret service of seeking to meddle in the Romanian election.

"This spring at the Salon des Batailles in the Hotel de Crillon, Nicolas Lerner, head of French intelligence, asked me to ban conservative voices in Romania ahead of elections. I refused," Durov, 40, said on X (formerly Twitter). "We didn't block protesters in Russia, Belarus, or Iran. We won't start doing it in Europe."

The French intelligence service on Monday rejected Durov's claims.

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