The separatist region of Transnistria has long been the thorn in the side of Moldova's pursuit of European Union membership – a fact thrown into sharp relief as parliamentary elections loom.
At the 28 September elections in Moldova, most people in the breakaway region of Transnistria won’t vote.
"There are no polling stations. They consider themselves independent,” says Nico Lamminparras, an expert in the politics of Transnistria based in Helsinki.
Transnistrians who want to vote can do so, if they cross the artificial border formed by the Dniester river into Moldova proper, where the government will open several polling stations.
The inhabitants of Transnistria are predominantly pro-Russian and "local authorities continue to promote an Eastern [pro-Russian] orientation," Lamminparras told RFI.
The region held its own referendum in 2006, opting to “go back home, to Russia,” he added – a move that underlined the enclave's metaphorical, if not geographical, distance from Moldova and the European Union.
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It is unclear how many Transnistrians will turn out to vote later this month.
According to Chisinau-based Regional Trend Analytics, a socio-economic watchdog, during last year's presidential elections and referendum some 30 polling stations were opened but only a few people turned up because of false reports of mines and blocking of bridges.
Soviet era
Transnistria has historically been multi-ethnic, its population shaped by waves of migration during the Soviet era, with substantial Russian and Ukrainian communities.
Joseph Stalin’s annexation of Bessarabia from Romania in 1940 merged it with Russian-speaking Transnistria to form the Moldovan Soviet Socialist Republic.
Following the Soviet collapse, as Moldova drifted towards nationalism and a potential union with Romania, people in Transnistria, wary of losing Russian cultural ties, declared independence in 1990.
Armed conflict, resulting in some 1,000 dead, broke out in 1992, with the 14th Guards Combined Arms Army branch of the Russian Army intervening to support the separatists.
The resulting ceasefire cemented Transnistria’s de facto independence, although this is not recognised internationally and a “frozen conflict” persists to this day.
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Different model
Transnistria is not the only Moldovan region that wants to chart its own course.
Still under Moldovan control, southern Gagauzia offers a different model. The enclave is home to the Gagauz, a Turkic Orthodox Christian people.
It also declared independence in the early 1990s. But rather than secede, Gagauzia accepted autonomy within Moldova in 1995, obtaining constitutional guarantees and substantial cultural self-determination.
Russian remains the dominant language, and Gagauzia continues to harbour pro-Russian sentiments, occasionally threatening to secede if Moldova were to change its status of autonomy.
Yet unlike Transnistria, Gagauzia participates in Moldovan elections and retains economic links to the central government, making its autonomy more functional and less destabilising.
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EU accession
The Transnistrian question casts a long shadow over Moldova’s EU accession process.
“The pro-Europeans will have a clear majority,” predicts Laminparras – albeit a declining one, meaning that "Moldovan policy will keep on as it is".
For Transnistria, he says, a possible Moldovan accession could prove disastrous.
"The EU process implies tariffs for the Transnistrian products passing the boundary,” which he added would deepen the economic gulf between the two banks of the Dniester.
Others, however, are more optimistic.
"It's clear that it's much better to join the European Union without a separatist conflict,” Nicu Popescu, Moldova's former deputy prime minister and foreign minister, who is running in the parliamentary elections on the list of the pro-European Action and Solidarity Party, told RFI. “The EU itself was founded on a divided state – West Germany."
According to Popescu, in the case of Moldova "the hope is that by joining the EU, reintegration of the country will in fact be made easier and more sustainable".
