The distribution of Greggs vs Pret A Manger stores is the true sign of the North-South divide, a new study suggests.
Researchers from Sheffield Hallam University set out to test the anecdotal perception that the ratio of Pret to Greggs stores indicates whether a town can be considered northern or southern.
Popular bakery brand Greggs’ commercial competitor Pret A Manger is often associated with the south, with London alone hosting over half of the chain’s UK store locations.
In December 2022, Pret A Manger had 434 shops – 273 of which were in the capital. Its first UK outlet arrived in Hampstead, north London in 1986.
By contrast, Greggs has its roots in the north, with the first store opened in 1939 in Tyneside.
The research model compared the geographical distribution of Greggs and Pret locations with Gross Domestic Household Income (GDHI) – mapped along two lines – and found that they matched “remarkably” well.
The “tongue-in-cheek” analysis concluded that the majority of England’s wealth is concentrated in London, as are most of Pret A Manger’s locations.
Titled “The greggs-pret index: a machine learning analysis of consumer habits as a metric for the socio-economic north- south divide in England”, the paper also “aims to highlight more serious factors highlighting the North-South divide, such as life expectancy, education, and poverty.”
“The food we eat is a very good indicator of whether someone is northern or southern. Greggs is very popular in the north, where people do seem to prefer a steak bake,” said Dr Robin Smith, the physicist at Sheffield Hallam University who led on the new study.
“We are fascinated by the north-south divide, so it is good to have a way of working out where it starts.”
However, “Since Greggs produced the vegan sausage roll … it has become more popular in the south, so this might not be a marker of northernness for that much longer”, Dr Smith added.
The study also assessed the locations of supermarkets Morrisons and Waitrose, finding that the geographical distribution of these two brands could also be placed close to the Watford Gap.
South of Birmingham, Watford Gap is an area near the village of Watford, Northamptonshire which has historically been used to divide the North from the South.
