College basketball season starts tonight, but you could be forgiven if you did not know it. The sport spends its first few months languishing in the long shadows cast by both the NFL and college football, only to come to the fore during three glorious weeks in March. But these early games count, and many will have major repercussions when Selection Sunday comes around. This year’s Final Four is in Houston, so let’s take a look at five burning questions entering a season that will come to a close deep in the heart of Texas.
So where did we leave off?
Duke rode the contributions of three dynamic freshmen to a 68-63 victory over Wisconsin in last year’s national championship game in Indianapolis. All three of those freshmen – Tyus Jones, Justise Winslow, and Jahlil Okafor – were selected in the first round of NBA draft, but the Blue Devils have brought in what many analysts have called the best recruiting class in the nation. Led by North Carolina native Brandon Ingram, the Blue Devils have a chance to be elite again this year. As for Wisconsin, last year’s squad was a once-in-a-generation-type team for the Badgers. Gone are national player of the year Frank Kaminsky and NCAA tournament hero Sam Dekker (both first-round draft picks as well). And unlike Duke, Wisconsin does not bring in gaggles of the country’s best incoming freshman on an annual basis. A berth in the NCAA tournament is not out of reach for the Badgers, but a return trip to the Final Four is highly unlikely.
Whither Kentucky?
The Wildcats were the story last year, running of 38 consecutive wins to start the season and coming within two games of being the first team to finish the season undefeated since Indiana in 1976. A season-ending loss to Wisconsin in the Final Four brought an end to that dream, and the Wildcats lost six players, all underclassmen, to the NBA draft in June. But a high attrition rate has been the norm for coach John Calipari’s program, and the Wildcats have reloaded with another stellar recruiting class. Freshman forward Skal Labissiere will be one of the best big men in the country this year, and Canadian swingman Jamal Murray looks to be the real deal on the wing. But first-year players can be unpredictable, and this team returns some, but not a lot, of the talent that made them a juggernaut last year. Kentucky will be very dangerous come March, but expect a few pitfalls along the way between now and then.
Who is this Ben Simmons guy?
Long, lean and tremendously athletic, Australian forward Ben Simmons has already drawn comparisons to NBA superstars LeBron James and Kevin Garnett. The 6ft 10in forward shocked some by deciding to spend what will likely be his one year in college in Baton Rouge at Louisiana State. He’s an exceptional ballhandler, a great passer and can score with either hand, making him the clubhouse leader to be the first name called at next year’s NBA draft. And he’s good enough to make LSU a threat to make some noise in March all by himself. Not bad for a guy who grew playing rugby and Aussie rules football.
How will the new rule changes affect the game?
During the offseason, the NCAA tweaked a number of rules in order to speed the pace of play and thus increase scoring in a game that at times more closely resembled wrestling. The most significant change was reducing the shot clock from 35 to 30 seconds per possession. In theory, reducing the shot clock should lead to more possessions and thus more scoring. Sounds good in theory, but we should reserve judgment until we see the effects of the court. A bad shot is a bad shot, no matter when it is taken.
And finally, who wins this thing?
Round up the usual suspects. As mentioned earlier, Duke and Kentucky will both be perilously young this year, but the quality of their recruiting classes combined with the pedigree of their coaches will keep them in the conversation. Traditional power Kansas is still awaiting the NCAA’s decision as to the eligibility of their impact freshman, center Cheick Diallo, but the Jayhawks have enough talent on the roster to be a force in March regardless. Maryland, Virginia, Iowa State, Oklahoma and Gonzaga all return experienced squads, and no one would be surprised to see any of these teams in Houston. But the vote here is for blue-blood powerhouse North Carolina. The Tar Heels are big, deep, athletic and experienced. They will be without lead guard Marcus Paige at the beginning of the season due to a broken bone in his hand, but he should be back in time to lead a squad that features future NBA players Kennedy Meeks, Justin Jackson and Brice Johnson. It’s a wide-open year in college hoops, but the Heels are the best bet to be cutting down the nets on 4 April at NRG Stadium.
