You’re going to hear a lot of talk about the decline of Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry going into 2023, but don’t buy it.
Yes, Henry is approaching the dreaded age of 30 (he’ll be 30 in January), but the star running back has yet to show signs of decline — and anyone pointing to his 2022 campaign as a sign of decline is just wrong, plain and simple.
Despite running behind arguably the worst offensive line in the sport last season, Henry still racked up 1,538 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns. In addition, he tallied a career-high 398 receiving yards, finishing as RB4.
As if the blocking upfront wasn’t enough to overcome, Henry faced a career-high percentage of stacked boxes (38.11 percent), mostly due to the fact that Tennessee had no semblance of a passing game to take pressure off, with the group ranking 30th in the NFL.
To further stack the deck against Henry, he worked under the worst play-caller (yes, there was someone worse than Nathaniel Hackett) in former offensive coordinator Todd Downing.
Downing ran what might have been the most predictable offense in the NFL, which in turn led to Henry routinely running into brick walls on early downs and posting awful efficiency numbers.
on 1st downs Tennessee had the #2 highest run rate
despite Ds stacking the box at the #4 highest rate
unsurprisingly the runs ranked #4 worst in efficiency
but nothing stopped them from running into loaded boxes
not even the fact that 1st down passes ranked #3 in efficiency
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) June 21, 2023
You’ll also see people say: “Well Henry didn’t have those breakaway runs we’re accustomed to seeing!”
That’s true, except it’s kind of hard to do that when you’re facing an absurdly high amount of stacked boxes (and even higher than usual for Henry) and bouncing off tacklers every single play.
Even with ALL of the aforementioned issues, Henry still managed the numbers he did — and there’s reason to believe he’s capable of more in 2023.
Derrick Henry’s 2023 outlook
The Titans rightly dropped Downing like a bad habit this offseason, replacing him with Tim Kelly, who has already made it clear Henry’s status as the focal point of the offense will not change, so the ridiculous amount of volume we’ve seen over the years won’t change.
“It would be foolish of me to not play to our strengths.” ~ #Titans OC Tim Kelly when asked how Derrick Henry will work into his offense. pic.twitter.com/gzDPuzB8x7
— Blaine and Mickey (@BlaineandMickey) August 1, 2023
And, Kelly has a lot more to work with in terms of pass-catchers.
Treylon Burks and Chigoziem Okonkwo flashed during their rookie seasons, with Chig looking like he has true star potential (get a share of him in 2023, if you can, and thank me later).
Chig Okonkwo is no secret to the fantasy football community. But his numbers might be even more wild than you remember:
– SECOND IN THE NFL in yards per route run (regardless of position, min 35 targets)
– 5th-highest QBR when targeted
– 17th in YAC/reception
– Higher contested…— Brett Gibbons (@roadtocfb) July 23, 2023
We didn’t see as much of Burks due to injury, but he still managed to show enough to leave me optimistic, and he’s looking like a completely different player this offseason in terms of the shape he’s in and the confidence he’s displaying. I think Burks takes that next step in 2023.
The addition of DeAndre Hopkins is the big one, though. The veteran wide receiver gives Tennessee the No. 1 receiver it needed and slides guys like Burks and Chig into their proper places in the pass-catcher pecking order.
Some out there have oddly labeled Hopkins a player on the decline, but bear in mind the guy is coming off a season in which he tallied 717 yards in nine games (he was suspended for six games), five of which didn’t feature Kyler Murray. If you total that out to 17 games, he finishes with over 1,300 yards.
Reasons DeAndre Hopkins isn’t washed:
🥇 5.71 Average Cushion 1st
🥈 43.4% Air Yard Share – 2nd
🥈 47% Win Rate Vs Man – 2nd
4️⃣ 51.8% Route Win Rate – 4th
4️⃣ 29.4% Target Share – 4thElite Separator. Elite Target Commander. Elite Receiver.#Titanspic.twitter.com/dPWf75LQFd
— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) July 17, 2023
Now, what does all of this have to do with Henry?
Well, having an actual receiving corps. that can get open and make plays — something last year’s group couldn’t do if its life depended on it — will do wonders to take pressure off Henry.
Teams will have to respect the pass more, which will lead to less stacked boxes and more explosive runs.
Here’s a look at the stacked-box percentages Henry has faced the last three years. You’ll notice a huge drop-off in 2020, which was the last year the Titans had a fully healthy and effective group of pass-catchers.
Bear in mind, that 2020 group of pass-catchers included A.J. Brown, Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith. This year’s group with Hopkins, Burks and Chig should, at worst, match that one, but also has the potential to be better.
Now, you’re probably wondering about that terrible offensive line from last year. Well, the Titans made significant changes there, fully replacing three starters upfront, including at left tackle (Andre Dillard), left guard (Peter Skoronski) and right right guard (Daniel Brunskill).
Aaron Brewer is sliding over to center, where he’s much better suited, and Nicholas Petit-Frere returns to his place at right tackle, although he’s suspended for the first six games.
It’s true, all of those guys are unproven to mostly unproven, but the good news is they couldn’t possibly be worse than last year’s group — and we already know what Henry was still able to do with last year’s group.
The ONLY potential downside of losing Downing and having a better wide receiving corps. is Henry might not be as involved through the air, but I think he can make up for that on the ground. Besides, it’s not like fantasy managers ever depended on Henry’s passing-game production, anyway.
The bottom line is this: don’t buy into the fear hype that Henry is going to fall off a cliff in 2023. That’s not to say it’s impossible, but the numbers just don’t show it as any semblance of a certainty.
He’s still an elite RB1 and among the very best and most consistent options at any position, and he should still be one of the first off the board in all re-draft leagues, especially among running backs. I’d have no problem taking him first overall, either.
