Prediction market traders are now pricing in a clear Democratic advantage in the 2028 US presidential race, with Republicans weighed down by a president whose approval ratings are at second-term lows and a war most Americans say they opposed.
The Polymarket contract on which party wins the 2028 US presidential election showed Democrats trading at 61 cents per share, implying a 61% probability of victory, against 39% for Republicans as of 15 April 2026. The market has generated approximately £1.28 million ($1.66 million) in total trading volume since it opened on 18 July 2025.
With the 2028 election more than two years away, prediction market figures carry significant uncertainty and should be read as a snapshot of current trader sentiment rather than a reliable electoral forecast. But taken alongside a simultaneous set of polling trends, midterm shifts, and a collapsing Republican nominee picture, the number tells a consistent story.
Trump's Approval Collapse and What It Means for the Open-Seat Race
The single biggest driver of the swing in 2028 sentiment is the position of President Donald Trump himself. The RealClearPolling aggregate, which blends surveys from CBS News, Rasmussen, Fox News, CNN, Reuters/Ipsos and nine other pollsters, placed Trump at 41.4% approval against 56.6% disapproval as of 13 April 2026, a net of minus 15.2 points.
That figure followed weeks of worse readings. The Silver Bulletin average, compiled by Nate Silver, noted that Trump's net approval had dropped from minus 13.4 to minus 16.3 since the start of the Iran war, hitting an all-time second-term low of minus 17.5 a few days prior to publication.
A CNN/SSRS poll taken in late March found his overall approval at 35%, with his economic approval at just 31%, a record low for both of his terms in office. The poll showed that among Republicans under the age of 45, his economic approval had fallen 23 points since January.
JUST IN: Democrats soar in the 2028 Presidential Election odds.
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) April 14, 2026
61% chance they win. pic.twitter.com/jZPpOS0KHd
The share of all Republicans who strongly approve of his job performance dropped from 52% in January to 43% by April. Trump is constitutionally barred from seeking a third term under the 22nd Amendment, which means the 2028 contest is an open-seat race for Republicans, a category that historically carries a built-in disadvantage when the outgoing party's standard-bearer is unpopular.
Morning Consult's tracker, which uses weekly rolling surveys of registered US voters, found as of early April that Trump was underwater on 10 of 12 policy issues it tracked. The economy, the issue voters consistently rank as their primary concern, sat at 43% approval against 51% disapproval. The only area where Trump held a clear net-positive reading was national security.
The 2026 Midterm Picture and Its 2028 Implications
Prediction markets focused on 2028 are absorbing the midterm picture as a leading indicator of where the political landscape is heading. On 13 April 2026, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted four Senate race ratings in Democrats' favour, moving North Carolina and Georgia from toss-up to leaning Democrat, and shifting Ohio from leaning Republican to toss-up. Its Senate editor, Jessica Taylor, told NPR: 'He is at nadir in popularity and approval ratings. He's hovering right at 40% or just below 40%. We've seen special elections across the country where Democrats have been more energised.'
The generic congressional ballot reinforces the trend. The RealClearPolling aggregate put Democrats at 47.5% versus Republicans at 41.8% in early April, a six-point advantage. The Brookings Institution analysis published in 2025 noted that if the Democratic generic ballot lead held, history suggested a Republican loss of roughly 12 House seats, enough to flip control.
A separate Polymarket market on Senate control, which has generated £1.47 million ($1.9 million), placed Democrats at 56% probability of winning the chamber after November.
Midterm results feed into 2028 in direct and structural ways. A Democratic House majority gained in 2026 would restore subpoena power and oversight hearings, limiting the executive's room to manoeuvre in its final two years. A competitive Senate environment typically reshapes candidate recruitment and donor calculations for the presidential race that follows. None of this is deterministic, and 2026 results will reflect a range of local factors well beyond national approval polling.
JD Vance's Declining Odds and the Fragile Republican Succession
The Republican picture for 2028 is further complicated by the position of Vice President JD Vance, the presumptive GOP frontrunner. A YouGov survey conducted 8-13 April 2026, with a sample of 2,189 US adults and a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points, found Vance's support among Republican and Republican-leaning voters at 36%, down from 41% in the same poll's January wave. A CNN/SSRS poll from late March put his job approval as vice president at 37%, with 62% disapproving, a marked deterioration from 41% approval in January.
On Polymarket's 2028 presidential winner market, which has generated over £358 million ($521 million) in trading volume, Vance's individual odds stood at roughly 18-19% as of mid-April 2026. California Governor Gavin Newsom was close behind at approximately 16-17%, representing the first time since August 2024 that a Democrat had been favoured over a Republican in the race's bookmaker markets. Star Sports listed Newsom at 7/2 and Vance at 4/1 as of early April, a reversal from Vance's earlier market dominance.
Mark Shanahan, who teaches American politics at the University of Surrey, told Newsweek that the structural problem for Vance runs deeper than any single poll. 'The issue for Vance is that he's so closely tied to this administration,' Shanahan said. 'For the moment, he has to be in lockstep with the president. If he's not, he simply isn't doing the job he has been elected to fulfill. So, while Trump's polling is languishing, Vance suffers.' On the Democratic side, Polymarket's individual candidate market also showed Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at roughly 5-6% and Marco Rubio at 9-10%, reflecting how early and fluid the field remains on both sides.
Two years is a long time in American politics, but the traders pricing Democrats at 61% right now are not betting on the distant future; they are betting on everything that has already happened.
