Republicans are racing to avoid an upset in Tennessee, where Democrats hope President Trump's opposition to releasing the "Epstein files" will help them splinter the conservative vote in a special election on Dec. 2.
Why it matters: Trump won Tennessee's 7th congressional district by 22 percentage points in 2024. Losing the seat — vacated by former Rep. Mark Green — to Democrats would fuel expectations that the party is heading for a tough midterm election.
- A liberal group called Your Community PAC began a $300,000-plus ad blitz on Friday attacking GOP nominee Matt Van Epps for opposing the release of documents related to the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.
- "The Epstein files are locked away. Matt Van Epps will keep them that way," the ad says.
The intrigue: Voters have also begun receiving mailers from an outside group that appear to be aimed at splintering the conservative vote.
- The mailer boosts long-shot independent candidate Jon Thorp, noting his support for releasing the Epstein files. And it targets Van Epps for his opposition to it.
Zoom in: Republicans tracking the race say Van Epps is ahead, but not by as much as they would like.
- Trump on Thursday hosted a tele-rally in which he boosted Van Epps and labeled Democratic nominee Aftyn Behn a "Marxist" and tied her to New York City mayor-elect and democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani.
- Behn, a state representative, denied the "Marxist" charge to the Nashville Banner. "I've spent my entire career focused on making healthcare more affordable, and I don't think that's 'radical,'" she told the outlet.
The big picture: Republicans have struggled in this year's elections, including a tighter-than-expected special election for a Florida House seat, a loss in a Wisconsin Supreme Court election and last week's drubbings in the Virginia and New Jersey governor races.
What's next: Two GOP groups, the Club for Growth Action and Conservatives for American Excellence PAC (CAE PAC), are planning to launch six-figure ad campaigns next week, Axios has learned.
- CAE PAC will spend more than $600,000 in the weeks leading up to the election. Its first ad will begin running Nov. 18.
- Club for Growth Action's commercials will also start next week.
The bottom line: Republicans are confident of Van Epps will come out ahead, but aren't taking any chances.
