Who doesn’t love a good upset?
In 2023, MMA saw its fair share of underdogs who defied the odds in the UFC, Bellator, PFL, and beyond. While everyone has an opinion of who should win and who should lose, the oddsmakers (and how the betting public responds) largely get the final say on what history reflects.
This year, with the help of MMA database Tapology, MMA Junkie has compiled the top 10 betting upsets of 2023. Fights that were eligible were those that multiple major online sportsbooks recognized, and that Tapology recorded before the close of the betting line.
Promotions eligible include UFC, Bellator, PFL, KSW, DWCS, Road to UFC, and ONE Championship.
Check out the top 10 MMA betting upsets of 2023 below. Only major MMA promotions were included in the tally.
10
Brendson Ribeiro (+380) def. Bruno Lopes (-600) | DWCS 61
Result: Brendson Ribeiro def. Bruno Lopes via TKO (punches) – Round 1, 3:47
Brendson Ribeiro punched his ticket to the UFC in style and ruined plenty of parlays in the process. Going up against the reigning LFA light heavyweight champion Bruno Lopes, and a fighter believed to be a UFC shoo-in, Ribeiro quickly gave the story an alternate ending. He pummeled Lopes en route to a Round 1 stoppage.
9
Jeka Saragih (+390) def. Lucas Alexander (-530) | UFC Fight Night 232
Result: Jeka Saragih def. Lucas Alexander via knockout (punches) – Round 1, 1:31
It took Jeka Saragih a total of 91 seconds to defy the odds Nov. 18 at the UFC Apex when he brutally knocked out Lucas Alexander. The victory was Saragih’s first in the promotion.
8
Henry Corrales (+400) def. Akhmed Magomedov (-550) | Bellator 290
Result: Henry Corrales def. Akhmed Magomedov via unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
A staple of Bellator MMA since 2015, Henry Corrales is consistently a tough outing for any opposition. At Bellator 290 in February, Corrales extended a winning streak to three when he swept the scorecards vs. Akhmed Magomedov.
7
Cody Brundage (+450) def. Jacob Malkoun (-600) | UFC Fight Night 228
The solo disqualification win that registered on this list begins to Cody Brundage, who was hit in the back of the head with an elbow during a Sept. 23 bout vs. Jacob Malkoun. Referee Mark Smith called timeout as a result of the foul and it was later determined Brundage was unable to continue.
6
Nicolas Dalby (+455) def. Gabriel Bonfim (-650) | UFC Fight Night 231
Result: Nicolas Dalby def. Gabriel Bonfim via TKO (strikes) – Round 2, 4:33
One of the most emphatic rallies was a big upset, too. In a Nov. 4 co-main event spot in Sao Paulo, Nicolas Dalby turned things around and poured on an onslaught of attack against Gabriel Bonfim. The barrage of strikes materialized in a TKO late in Round 2.
5
Sean Strickland (+470) def. Israel Adesanya (-650) | UFC 293
Result: Sean Strickland def. Israel Adesanya via unanimous decision (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
Perhaps one of the most high-profile upsets in UFC history, Sean Strickland, the unlikely next title challenger, flew across the world and put on a clinic against reigning middleweight champion Israel Adesanya. In enemy territory, Strickland won four rounds on all three judges’ scorecards – and was cheered upon the decision announcement.
4
Elves Brener (+470) def. Zubaira Tukhugov (-625) | UFC 284
Result: Elves Brener def. Zubaira Tukhugov via split decision (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
Though controversial, Elves Brener notched an upset decision victory over former Khabib Nurmagomedov training partner Zubaira Tukhugov. The bout was his promotional debut and one he took on short notice.
3
Elves Brener (+475) def. Guram Kutateladze (-670) | UFC on ESPN 47
Result: Elves Brener def. Guram Kutateladze via TKO (punches) – Round 3, 3:17
What a year it was for Elves Brener. A newcomer to the promotion in 2023, Brener went 3-0 with two massive betting upsets in back-to-back fights. Perhaps the most shocking was his sophomore appearance when he took out highly touted Guram Kutateladze, a fighter who struggled to find willing opponents.
2
Alexa Grasso (+575) def. Valentina Shevchenko (-900) | UFC 285
Result: Alexa Grasso def. Valentina Shevchenko via submission (rear-naked choke) – Round 4, 4:34
There are big betting upsets. There are big, history-changing moments. Alexa Grasso’s win over Valentina Shevchenko at UFC 285 was both. In a series of events improbable to most, Grasso tapped Shevchenko with a jaw-contorting rear-naked choke in the championship rounds. The two fighters rematched in September and the bout ended in a draw.
1
Jeff Creighton (+850) def. Joey Davis (-1600) | Bellator 293
Result: Jeff Creighton def. Joey Davis via split decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
A massive betting upset flew somewhat under the radar at Bellator 293 in March, when relative unknown Jeff Creighton established himself in MMA history when he defeated massive favorite Joey Davis. The fight played out mostly along the fence as Division II NCAA wrestling champion Davis shot for takedown after takedown. What he lacked in positional control, Creighton seemed to make up for in damage, at least in the eyes of the judges. It was close, but Creighton got the nod – and one of the biggest oddsmaker upsets ever.
