The conclusion of the seventh week of the NFL schedule brings about an influx of data-driven analysis about the sport. The season is 1/3rd of the way over, and trends are becoming more pronounced as the sample size grows. As trends are further exposed, the predictive performance of models becomes more and more accurate. Teams are revealing how good they are, and the tiers across the league are beginning to solidify. With the trade deadline a week away, it’s not too late for a team to make drastic improvements.
Last season the San Francisco 49ers made their blockbuster move for Christian McCaffrey at the deadline, who elevated a good offense to an elite one. The Browns should also take a big swing on offense, as we’ll see, the numbers are not kind to them. The Browns have proven that their defense can win them games, but that is not a winning strategy long-term.
The Browns need to do anything to help the defensive unit out. The team cannot rely on Myles Garrett to net them 20 points in a game. If they think they can, they should try him at tight end. I’m not sure there’s anything that man can’t succeed at.
Game Recap
Looking at the EPA, the Browns’ offense could not get anywhere against the Colts’ defense. The Browns were 14.9 percent under their expected pass rate. For good reason, the Browns were putrid when passing. The subpar rushing attack was a significant upgrade. P.J. Walker played as expected for a backup inexperienced with the team and system to play. Walker is a fine backup quarterback, but the unfamiliarity between the quarterback and staff is arresting the offense. The Browns need to look for other replacements.The Browns’ defense allowed a lot of big plays. In the run game, Jonathan Taylor proved he’s healthy as he broke multiple tackles during big runs. The Browns’ passing defense had multiple miscommunications leading to the Colts having a big day through the air. The Browns’ defensive backs and linebackers could not handle seeing motion. It made them confused in zone defense as many of their problems from last season reappeared. The defense will start seeing more presnap shifts and motions until they can stop it.
Myles Garrett and the defensive line absolutely destroyed Gardner Minshew as the defense held the Colts to a 33rd-percentile EPA in spite of the explosive play rate.
NFL Week 7 – Advanced Stats Review
Cleveland Browns 39 – Indianapolis Colts 38 pic.twitter.com/XQCxBRZmFC
— SumerSports (@SumerSports) October 23, 2023
Defensive Explosive Play Rate
The defense has done a successful job of preventing explosive plays. The Browns play a lot of single safety looks that are more vulnerable to explosive plays compared to two safety looks. The Browns really need to fix their communication issues in zone defense, before the Colts’ game becomes a trend.
Explosive plays allowed by defenses through 7 weeks of the season pic.twitter.com/vUAe5HxTOK
— Arjun Menon (@arjunmenon100) October 24, 2023
Browns are in Tier 5 of the NFL
The Browns have moved up a tier in the EPA-based model. The Browns’ defense continues to keep the team afloat in these rankings. If the offense begins to improve the Browns will slingshot into the upper echelon of teams.
~~ 7 weeks of the NFL season in the books~~
Here come the Ravens
The Bills and Seahawks have to two hardest remaining schedules per @inpredict (both have played top-5 easiest schedules to date) pic.twitter.com/PcrvRNE2yF
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) October 24, 2023
QB Efficiency
The main culprits to the Browns’ offensive failures are really highlighted here. It’s unfortunate that P.J. Walker has been thrust into so much playtime that he can qualify for the charts examining the league. Walker’s unfamiliarity with the offense is obvious as he is the least successful quarterback on first and second down. Those are the downs that are the easiest for a quarterback.
Deshaun Watson needs to get healthy. He’s impossible to properly evaluate until he does. His results have been horrible. As we saw in the Colts’ game, the injury can make him play even worse. His health needs to be the priority of this team.
Quarterback efficiency on early downs and late downs
In obvious passing situations you need a creator like Brock Purdy, Andy Dalton, or Baker Mayfield pic.twitter.com/o96vjDKKAo
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) October 24, 2023
Offensive Series Results
Passing and rushing efficiency on early downs.
The Bills have been very efficient on pass plays (they do have Josh Allen) and not so much on run playshttps://t.co/mdxcxMRY9N pic.twitter.com/Bsuvt3pFL8
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) October 24, 2023
The Browns’ offensive failings don’t lie solely at the quarterbacks’ feet. The running game has been better with the return of Kareem Hunt, but it still struggles. As a result, the Browns have one of the worst series results for offenses. The Browns are in the bottom five in the league when it comes to getting a first down.
Watching the Bills and Eagles, it doesn't feel like they're 2 of the 5 most consistent offenses in moving the chains, and yet… pic.twitter.com/jLgUAjNSnI
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) October 24, 2023
Browns are the hardest team to get a first down against
On the flip side of the coin, the Browns’ defense is shutting down opponents. The defense gets off the field quickly and they could get better if the offense can give the defense a time to rest.
How hard it is to earn a new first down against each defense.
Seattle's offense will go from playing the 2nd-worst defense (ARI) last week to the best (CLE) and 3rd best (BAL) over the next 2 games. Should be a good test pic.twitter.com/JllrOYUmRL
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) October 24, 2023
PFF true pass blocking grades
This table is great at evaluating how good linemen are at pass blocking. Using stricter criteria to focus on how well a unit does in obvious passing downs helps clean up messier data that includes play-action passes and RPOs. The Browns’ offensive line is pass-blocking well. Dawand Jones is doing an exceptional job at right tackle, while Jedrick Wills Jr. is having a career year. The injured guard unit is lagging a little behind but the veteran duo will eventually play better. It’s also worth noting the murders row of defensive tackles they have played against.
Another way to look at pass protection (finally found this code from last year):
Here is the average pass block grade among offensive linemen in "true pass sets" (excludes plays with less than 4 rushers, play action, screens, short dropbacks and time-to-throws under 2 seconds) pic.twitter.com/E9laeKYoth
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) October 24, 2023
Trench Grades
This graph is a combination of ESPN’s tracking data with PFF’s grading system. It’s interesting to see where the two services agree and disagree. The Browns’ defensive line grades from PFF on run plays do not line up at all with the objective tracking data.
All trench measures from PFF & ESPN pic.twitter.com/eHCvqlvAn7
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) October 24, 2023
Browns outside the top 10 pass rush groups
The Browns’ pass rush group of Myles Garrett, Za’Darius Smith, Ogbo Okoronkwo, and Dalvin Tomlinson are just outside the top 10 of the most effective pass-rushing groups. Hopefully, the unit gets more familiar with where each rusher is going, so they can herd the quarterback to those spots.
Best 4 man pass rushing combo for every team in the league this season on plays with only 4 rushers, sorted by pressure rate along with where that ranks in the league. MIN & ARI don't have a combo with enough snaps together to be a part of the table pic.twitter.com/0f3uyTtQP8
— Arjun Menon (@arjunmenon100) October 24, 2023
Browns playoff probabilities increases
The Browns increased their chances of making the playoffs by 7% with their victory over the Colts according to the models at Sumer Sports. The Browns will be facing another serious playoff contender in the Seahawks on Sunday.
Updated NFL Playoff Probabilities – Week 7, Before MNF pic.twitter.com/2XVSLWUJ3V
— SumerSports (@SumerSports) October 23, 2023
Browns drop in DVOA rankings
The Cleveland Browns dropped two spots in the DVOA rankings due to their offensive woes. The ranking has been the golden standard of analytics for over a decade. DVOA stands for “Defense-adjusted Value Over Expectation”. DVOA is published by FTNFantasy.
| TEAM | W-L | TOTAL DVOA RANK | TOTAL DVOA | LAST WEEK | NON-ADJ TOTAL VOA | OFFENSE DVOA | OFFENSE RANK | DEFENSE DVOA | DEFENSE RANK | SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA | SPECIAL TEAMS RANK |
| BAL | 5-2 | 1 | 40.10% | 6 | 32.30% | 17.60% | 5 | -22.80% | 2 | -0.20% | 18 |
| SF | 5-2 | 2 | 35.90% | 1 | 36.70% | 27.30% | 2 | -9.20% | 6 | -0.50% | 20 |
| KC | 6-1 | 3 | 35.00% | 5 | 36.70% | 20.30% | 4 | -10.40% | 5 | 4.20% | 2 |
| BUF | 4-3 | 4 | 27.20% | 3 | 31.60% | 25.70% | 3 | -3.40% | 13 | -1.90% | 24 |
| DET | 5-2 | 5 | 24.10% | 2 | 21.30% | 14.50% | 6 | -7.60% | 9 | 1.90% | 9 |
| MIA | 5-2 | 6 | 23.30% | 4 | 29.90% | 32.30% | 1 | 5.90% | 24 | -3.20% | 29 |
| PHI | 6-1 | 7 | 19.30% | 7 | 16.90% | 11.50% | 9 | -5.10% | 10 | 2.80% | 4 |
| JAC | 5-2 | 8 | 19.10% | 8 | 10.30% | 3.50% | 13 | -13.00% | 4 | 2.50% | 7 |
| SEA | 4-2 | 9 | 11.20% | 10 | 17.10% | 7.00% | 10 | -2.60% | 16 | 1.60% | 11 |
| DAL | 4-2 | 10 | 9.50% | 11 | 19.90% | -6.40% | 18 | -15.50% | 3 | 0.40% | 15 |
| CLE | 4-2 | 11 | 8.90% | 9 | 4.50% | -16.80% | 29 | -23.20% | 1 | 2.50% | 8 |
