The Cleveland Browns defeated one of the best teams in the NFL and one of their most hated rivals the Baltimore Ravens. In this week’s “Data Dump,” the numbers point upward after the thrilling victory.
The Browns didn’t have a meteoric rise across most metrics as they did last week. Despite beating one of the best teams in the NFL, the Browns’ first-half offense hurt the team’s EPA.
There were two special team screw-ups that further dragged down the total EPA. The muffed punt inside the red zone gave the Ravens perfect field position to score a touchdown. The Browns cannot gift teams points like that. The second mistake was the missed point after attempt to close the game. Hopkins fixed his mistake when he sunk the game-winning field goal. The defense continued to be exceptional.
For those who believe that wins and losses are the only numbers worth caring about, the Browns are riding high at 6-3. The team will battle the Steelers on Sunday and the winner will gain the inside track on the AFC North division title. There’s a chance they could play for the number one spot in the division if the Baltimore Ravens slip to the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday night.
Game Recap
The Browns had an exceptional game running the ball. The offense found its footing as the unit fought for every yard they got. The Browns’ defense did a good job of containing the Ravens’ passing attack.
The group continues to give up too many explosive plays. The two major ways teams are generating explosives are by taking advantage of the Browns’ aggressiveness and running screenplays or by using motion to confuse the defensive backfield. The Browns will need to show more awareness going into the back half of the season.
NFL Week 10 – Advanced Stats Review
Cleveland Browns 33 – Baltimore Ravens 31 pic.twitter.com/H4lOAZMufr
— SumerSports (@SumerSports) November 13, 2023
Browns remain in Tier 4
The Browns maintained their position in Tier 4 of the NFL. The offense had a disastrous first half against the Ravens that tanked their EPA. A strong second half helped the Browns elevate their offense ever so slightly on the season. If the Browns want to be seen as serious Super Bowl contenders, the offense needs to stop turning the ball over in their own territory.
~~ Week 10 NFL thread~~
The 49ers and Cowboys are good and the Bills still do not make sense pic.twitter.com/0KKEZyiP9c
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) November 14, 2023
QB Efficiency by Down
Deshaun Watson is steadily improving in the rankings after every week as he is refamiliarized with the NFL. Watson started the season near the bottom of the league in most quarterback metrics. At the midseason point, Watson has improved to lay closer to the league average.
Quarterback efficiency on early and late downs
For all the hand-wringing about 3rd downs when Russell Wilson was in Seattle, he's done pretty well this year and the Seahawks have…not pic.twitter.com/FlxB63tc3B
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) November 14, 2023
QB Production versus QB Grades
Quarterback grade and efficiency through week 10.
Speaking of the Lions, after Josh Allen's performance last night, we have a new top-graded QB for the season pic.twitter.com/VaFk6VFYn4
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) November 14, 2023
Here is another example of a chart that Watson is quickly climbing. Watson was near the bottom of the league during his injury.
Browns series conversion rates
Series conversion rates on offense and defense
Kind of surprising seeing the Eagles defense where it is this year. The Chargers are not a surprise. pic.twitter.com/ox6TqcrCAL
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) November 14, 2023
The Browns’ defense pops off the chart that measures how often teams are making first downs. It shows how well the defense is suffocating opponents. The Browns’ defense is dominant enough to keep games competitive no matter who the opponent is or how bad the Browns’ offense plays.
PFF and ESPN trench measurement
The trench measure tool is my favorite graph of the week. The metric combines the subjective grading of PFF with the GPS tracking data from ESPN which develops a more accurate picture of line play.
All trench measures from ESPN and PFF.
It might be hard to quantify run defense well… pic.twitter.com/R3W1MIrtGj
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) November 14, 2023
Browns increase playoff odds by 13% after Ravens win
The Browns increased their chances of making the playoffs by 13% according to Sumer Sports. The Browns have another chance to greatly improve their odds when they play the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday.
the texans are america's team™️ and it would be great for the greater good if they were in the playoffs https://t.co/J3EQ3O1dSH pic.twitter.com/6dWyx9gspj
— Tej Seth (@tejfbanalytics) November 13, 2023
