Leeds United made a big statement in the relegation battle with an important victory for the second time in as many Premier League games.
On the back of the win against Burnley a couple of weeks ago, the Whites picked up a huge 3-2 win at West Ham on Sunday afternoon.
Jack Harrison was the star of the show and it was his hat-trick that helped his side extend their gap to the relegation zone to nine points.
Three of the five teams below 15th-placed Leeds have at least one game in hand but, with each of them in poor form, they will struggle to close that gap in the next few weeks.
Marcelo Bielsa’s side cannot allow themselves to become complacent though as the squad at Elland Road is still an injury-depleted one, with Adam Forshaw and Junior Firpo limping off at the London Stadium.
The visit of the Magpies is the first in an important three-game run for Leeds as they travel to face Aston Villa and Everton afterwards.
According to FiveThirtyEight, with the form they’re in and their upcoming opponents, the Whites have increased their chances of staying up to 93 per cent.
In the next 18 matches, the sports forecasting website expect Leeds to pick up another 21 points which would take them to 43 points at the end of the season.
Alongside their predictions for each of the other Premier League clubs, such a total would lead the Whites to a 14th-place finish with 10 points between them and the bottom three.
FiveThirtyEight are predicting that Watford (18th), Newcastle (19th) and Norwich (20th ) will be the teams who drop into the Championship in May with Burnley just managing to retain their top-flight status in 17thh .
The algorithm that the site uses is based purely on statistics so does not consider injured players or potential January signings. Both of those factors are likely to ultimately affect the battle at the bottom with Newcastle, in particular, looking to spend big in the next fortnight.
The Soccer Power Index (SPI) used by FiveThirtyEight is the calculation that leads to their predictions and it is explained on their website as follows:
“In our system, every team has an offensive rating that represents the number of goals it would be expected to score against an average team on a neutral field, and a defensive rating that represents the number of goals it would be expected to concede.
“These ratings, in turn, produce an overall SPI rating, which represents the percentage of available points — a win is worth 3 points, a tie worth 1 point, and a loss worth 0 points — the team would be expected to take if that match were played over and over again.”
