When Greek Cypriots head for the polls this Sunday more will be at stake than the make-up of their local parliament.
For the island’s two estranged communities, the ballot is being seen as a critical test for peace talks that could end its ethnic divide and, in turn, resolve Europe’s longest-running diplomatic row.
“It’s crunch time,” said Dr James Ker-Lindsay, a Cyprus specialist at the London School of Economics.
“This is a major test for the government after Cyprus’s economic meltdown. In recent months there has been concern that talks have slowed down. These elections are crucial for the negotiations and the prospect of a breakthrough.”
Fifty-six MPs stand to be elected to the island’s parliament, the house of representatives, on ballots cast by nearly 543,000 voters. A strong result for president Nicos Anastasiades’s centre-right Democratic Rally (DISY) would, say analysts, allow him to make the concessions necessary to reunite the island’s feuding Greek and Turkish communities in a bi-communal, bi-zonal federation.
“If DISY does well, Anastasiades can say: ‘I’ve proved myself on the economy, now let me prove myself on Cyprus,’” Ker-Lindsay said. “He will be in a much stronger position to press ahead with the talks.”
Since 1974, when the island was effectively split between its majority population of Greeks in the south and Turks in the north, there have been repeated attempts to solve the problem but all have floundered.
The division – sealed when Ankara invaded in response to an Athens-inspired coup aimed at uniting Cyprus with Greece – has only hardened with time.
But recent financial turmoil in the internationally recognised south and increased isolation of Turks in the breakaway north have combined to reinvigorate negotiations.
Both Anastasiades and Mustafa Akinci, the Turkish Cypriot leader, are vocal advocates of the benefits of reunification.
In the year since Akinci’s own election last May, they have met regularly, with experts calling the peace talks a once-in-a-generation opportunity to reach a settlement.
To mark a year of intensive negotiations the two men announced earlier this week that their goal was to reach a comprehensive settlement agreement within 2016.
“Although there are still difficulties and differences, we are determined to show the necessary will and courage to overcome the remaining outstanding issues,” they said in a joint statement.
While headway has been made on power-sharing and governance, territorial adjustments and property rights remain contentious issues.
Anastasiades, who has overseen a remarkable economic recovery since the south’s banking crisis three years ago, still faces vehement opposition from hardliners fiercely opposed to reunification.
Polls have shown DISY to be well in the lead but supporters have also warned against complacency.
About 200 Greek Cypriots who have remained in the north will be transported to voting stations after crossing the island’s UN-patrolled ceasefire line on Sunday.
Organisers say every vote will count.
