United Natural Foods, Inc. (NYSE:UNFI) closed a turbulent chapter with a stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter performance, signaling resilience following a disruptive cybersecurity incident.
BTIG analyst Peter Saleh noted that sales were modestly ahead of expectations, with earnings slightly better than forecast, supported by high single-digit growth in the Natural segment.
He added that the disruption from the cyber event was effectively contained within the quarter, limiting its operational impact.
Also Read: United Natural Foods CEO Says Company Effectively Navigated Cyber Incident, Eyes Growth Ahead
Shares rallied following management's updated fiscal 2026 and multi-year outlook, which projects low single-digit sales growth, low-teens adjusted EBITDA growth, and higher free cash flow over the next two years.
While Saleh acknowledged the targets and recent progress as encouraging, he cautioned that structural challenges, modest profitability, and the company's checkered history in achieving long-term goals remain concerns.
Ahead of United Natural Foods' Investor Day in December, Saleh reiterated a Neutral rating on the shares.
United Natural Foods reported slightly better-than-expected results in the fourth quarter of 2025, with revenue of $7.70 billion modestly ahead of BTIG's in-line estimate of $7.61 billion. The performance reflected a 3.0% volume decline, 2.0% inflation, and some positive mix.
The cybersecurity incident had an estimated $400 million impact on sales and $50 million on adjusted EBITDA, stemming from sales deleverage and incremental overtime costs. However, management noted that the disruption was resolved mainly by late July, with limited carryover into fiscal 2026.
For fiscal 2026, United Natural Foods is projecting roughly flat sales compared to fiscal year 2025, even after eliminating nearly $1 billion in revenue from Key Foods, supported by continued growth in the Natural segment and improved customer retention.
The company's adjusted EBITDA is forecast at $630 million to $700 million, representing about 20% growth at the midpoint compared to fiscal year 2025, or 10% to 11% growth when excluding the cybersecurity impact.
BTIG's revised forecasts for United Natural Foods point to a modestly stronger outlook over the next two years. Revenue is expected to be $31.9 billion in fiscal year 2026, slightly above the prior estimate of $31.5 billion, and to rise further to $32.5 billion in fiscal year 2027.
Adjusted EBITDA is projected to increase from $552 million in fiscal year 2025 to $648 million in fiscal year 2026, comfortably ahead of BTIG's earlier $596 million forecast and in line with management's $630-$700 million guidance range, before reaching $702 million in fiscal year 2027.
BTIG values United Natural Foods on an EV/EBITDA basis, applying a multiple of 5.9x to its fiscal year 2027 adjusted EBITDA estimate of $702.5 million.
United Natural Foods will host an Investor Day in New York on December 10, where management is expected to provide additional details on its long-term objectives.
Price Action: UNFI shares were trading higher by 4.69% to $39.39 at last check Wednesday.
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