New Delhi, The Indian FMCG sector, which had a volume growth of 4.5 per cent in 2025-26, is likely to face a moderation in growth this year amid geopolitical tensions impacting energy markets and concerns over a below-normal monsoon, said a report by Worldpanel by Numerator (formerly Kantar).
This momentum would normally lift FMCG volume growth closer to 5 per cent over the year; however, two key macroeconomic headwinds - volatility in energy markets triggered by geopolitical conflict and early signs of below-normal rainfall - could materially influence the trajectory of FMCG demand, it added.
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This will lead to select pricing actions by companies, which could slow down consumption frequency.
"If elevated crude prices persist, FMCG volume growth is likely to remain range-bound at 4-4.5 per cent. Select pricing actions return, frequency recovery slows further, and planned shopping behaviour becomes more entrenched," said the FMCG Pulse report.
However, in an adverse scenario where higher energy costs coincide with food inflation caused by weather-related stress and planned shopping behaviour becomes more entrenched, the growth FMCG volume growth could soften to 3-4 per cent, the report said.
" If higher energy costs coincide with food inflation from weather stress, FMCG volume growth could soften to 3-4 per cent. Importantly, this reflects behavioural discipline which we have noticed even during the economic hardships of the past," it said.
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In the base-case scenario, where energy prices stabilise closer to baseline assumptions and monsoon conditions do not worsen, "FMCG volume growth is likely to edge up towards 5 per cent.
Over FMCG growth in the March quarter, the report said it continued to post healthy topline growth over FY26, with value growth comfortably ahead of volume growth.
"The latest quarter mirrors this pattern: value momentum is intact (13.1 per cent), even as volume growth has accelerated (3.5 per cent to 5.4 per cent) in the March quarter," it said.
Urban reported a strong 6.4 per cent growth in the March quarter of 2026, sequentially higher from 4.8 per cent of December quarter.
"While Rural continues to be above the 4 per cent growth mark for the second quarter in a row. Both Urban and Rural are performing at a level much higher than the same period last year (MQ 25)," it said.
The report also highlighted a survey on impact from disruptions in LPG availability and repeated price hikes saying the impact is "now a visible, managed constraint that is shaping daily routines, meal choices, and household budgets.
Households are increasingly batch-cooking, skipping some cooking occasions, and cutting down on snacks or special dishes prepared at home, it said.
Though "immediate FMCG behaviour change remains limited" from the LPG price hike, but "in the near term, headline demand is likely to hold, as most households delay various purchase changes.
"But as price expectations harden, downtrading and frequency risks will build - first selectively, then structurally," it said. Now, simpler, quicker cooking is already influencing consumption choices.
"This is a good time for categories like easy-to-prepare foods, accompaniments, and short-cook formats to market themselves as relevant in this scenario," it said.
The report also noticed a shift in consumer behaviour, with a decline in purchase occasions, even as overall consumption continues to edge up.
"Shoppers are consolidating their shopping. Instead of buying less, they are buying less often, but more per trip. Larger packs, fewer top-ups and more deliberate stock-up missions are becoming the norm," it said.
As a result, the average spend per occasion has gone up from Rs 121 to Rs 139 in the last couple of years, and from Rs 130 to Rs 145 in the March quarter of 2026, over the year-ago period.
