Footwear stocks have broadly rallied over the past month, appearing to sidestep concerns over President Donald Trump's tariffs. Shares surged early Monday on news of a trade deal between the U.S. and China.
Rocky Brands leads the group with a 39% gain over the past month, followed by Puma with a 26% jump and Wolverine World Wide with a 24% advance. Skechers has rallied 22% amid acquisition news. Crocs is jumping on its recent earnings beat. On Holding and Birkenstock rebounded above key moving averages ahead of their quarterly reports this week. Hoka-maker Deckers also reclaimed a key technical line.
However, not all shoe stocks are winners. Overall, the apparel and shoes industry group is still down almost 20% this year, MarketSurge data shows.
On Holding
Switzerland-based On Holding is also testing its 200-day line with shares on track for a three-week advance. Shares jumped 3.8% Monday on the trade deal news.
Analysts are mixed about ONON stock ahead of Q1 results on Tuesday.
Needham on Wednesday reportedly lifted its price target on ONON by 5 to 55 and maintained a buy rating. The firm notes strong company momentum, growing brand awareness, as well as greater shelf space and store counts. Needham added that On Holding has some of the lowest tariff risk in its coverage.
Telsey Advisory also views On Holding as a stock with multiple avenues for global growth. The firm lowered its price target on ONON stock by 2 to 65 but kept an outperform rating on shares.
Morgan Stanley has an overweight rating for ONON stock. However, any Q1 earnings upside will likely be overshadowed by tariff-driven outlooks or guidance withdrawals, the firm wrote in a Tuesday note. Morgan Stanley lowered its ONON price target by 4 to 62.
FactSet expects On Holding on May 13 to report earnings of 25 cents per share, down from 36 cents last year. Analysts forecast almost 46% revenue growth to $822 million.
Birkenstock
FactSet expects Birkenstock to report a nearly 39% increase in earnings to 61 cents per share on about 23% revenue growth to $641 million.
BIRK stock rebounded above its 200-day moving average last week ahead of its Q2 results on Thursday. Shares are working up the right side of a cup base with a 62.66 buy point.
BIRK climbed 1.3% Monday.
Crocs Stock
Crocs stock closed up nearly 13% for the week following its Thursday earnings report. Shares jumped another 8.3% Monday.
The clog maker reported earnings of $3 per share, beating FactSet views for $2.48 per share. Crocs sales eased to $937 million, but still topped expectations for $908 million. However, Crocs still pulled its guidance due to anticipated tariff impacts.
Executives on the call noted that the company's 2025 sourcing mix pulls about 47% from Vietnam, 17% from Indonesia, 13% for China and India, and 5% for Mexico and Cambodia.
CEO Andrew Rees said that a 10% incremental tariff on all sourcing into the U.S. would translate to $45 million in additional costs on an annualized cash basis. If the 145% China tariff stays in place, with the 10% tariff on other countries, that would translate to about $130 million in additional costs annually.
Still, Crocs continues to import goods from China, although the company is bringing in "minimal" products under the 145% tariff. The shoemaker is "very selective" for its popular Crocs brand. But imports are "almost nonexistent" for its HeyDude segment.
Ross noted that April was a "strong" month, with a consistent trajectory from March.
"I would say the U.S. consumer in particular seems to be holding up well," Rees said in the call. He added they're seeing that continued trajectory for Crocs international business.
Wolverine World Wide, Rocky Brands
Wolverine World Wide cleared Q1 estimates on Thursday following Rocky Brands' beat on April 29.
Bootmaker Wolverine pulled its guidance due to tariff uncertainty. Still, executives said that they remain optimistic based on improving market share gains, while demand trends "appear to be holding at this point." CEO Christopher Hufnagel on the call noted that sell-through rates for U.S. retail remained strong in April, with similar reports from international segments. Still, the company is looking for ways to leverage its supply chain and minimize impact tied to China imports.
Rocky Brands did not pull its guidance and said it was also working on ways to reduce product sourcing from China. The company is looking to procure more from partners in Vietnam, Cambodia and India, as well as shift production to manufacturing facilities in the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico.
Still, executives warned that Rocky Brands would likely begin hiking prices in June. Aside from tariffs, the company's military segment was down in Q1, in part due to purchasing freezes from the Department of Government Efficiency.
Skechers
Elsewhere, Skechers on Monday announced it was being taken private in a $9.4 billion deal with investment firm 3G Capital. Under terms of the deal, 3G Capital will pay $63 per share in cash for Skechers, representing a 30% premium to its 15-day volume-weighted average stock price. The transaction is expected to close in the third quarter.
SKX stock received a number of downgrades to hold, neutral or equal weight rating following the announcement.
Morgan Stanley in a research note wrote that the $63 price tag may seem relatively low to investors compared to recent levels. But it is fair, given the current industry dynamics, Morgan Stanley added.
UBS believes that Skechers will likely trade on deal dynamics rather than fundamentals until the transaction closes.
Deckers
Deckers reportedly received a price hike from UBS on Wednesday ahead of its Q4 report later this month. UBS raised its price target on DECK stock by $8 to 158 and kept a buy rating on the shares. The firm believes that Hoka brand momentum is stronger than the market assumes. Still, the firm doubts Deckers will provide 2026 guidance due to tariff uncertainty, similar to many of its peers.
FactSet expects Deckers to report a 30% decline in earnings to 58 cents per share on 4.5% revenue growth to just over $1 billion.
Deckers shares surged more than 3% last week to reclaim its 50-day line. DECK stock is up 4.3% over the past month.
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