Defending CRO Race champion Brandon McNulty (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) made a potentially decisive GC bid on stage 4, clinching the victory on the toughest single day of climbing to take a commanding lead overall.
McNulty shot away on the lower slopes of the punishing steep Skitaca ascent with around 24 kilometres to go, opening a gap of roughly 1:40 on his closest pursuers by the finish.
Second on the final category 3 climb in Labin that concluded the stage was Edoardo Zambanini (Bahrain Victorious), comfortably outsprinting Michal Kwiatkowski (Ineos Grenadiers) for second on the stage. Joel Nicolau (Caja Rural-Seguros RGA) was a more distant fourth.
Asked about his 22km solo breakaway to victory, McNulty said, "It was kind of the plan all day, we knew this climb was super-steep and decisive, the team just kept everything controlled and then I gave it everything I had.
"I had a little bit of suffering to the finish but it was basically how we planned it."
There are two stages remaining and McNulty has become the overwhelming favourite to repeat his 2024 overall title. After Friday's latest success, he added an 187th triumph victory to UAE's record-breaking tally of 2025.
Now with a lead of nearly two minutes overall, as for whether he could keep the top spot all the way to Sunday's finish for a second year running, McNulty was optimistic.
"I think it's easier than last year," he said. "Last year we had less of a gap and there were all the bonus seconds so to have over a minute is a bit more comfortable.
"As long as everything goes smoothly, it should be OK."
How it unfolded
Despite the peloton having to tackle the long, but steady upward grind of the category 1 Poklon midway through the 192-kilometre stage, the second, much harder half proved far more significant in deciding the outcome.
After the summit, UAE Team Emirates-XRG clearly racing for McNulty and Ineos Grenadiers keeping the front half of the bunch together, it became a point where previous GC leader and multiple stage winner Paul Magnier (Soudal-QuickStep) was amongst those dropped as well as numerous other sprinters.
The GC battle began in earnest on the crucial ultra-steep Skitaca, its summit 22km from the line. UAE's Tim Wellens opened hostilities on the steep lower slopes, the Belgian National Champion's pace reducing the peloton very quickly.
McNulty then jumped away confidently on yet another tough ramp some two kilometres from the top and only Kwiatkowski, former Italian national champion Filippo Zana (Jayco-AlUla) and promising young Slovenian racer Jakob Ormzel (Bahrain Victorious) were able to follow. However, when McNulty stomped on the pedals again, it proved impossible for anybody to continue to stay on his wheel and the rider from Arizona continued onwards and upwards alone at the head of the field.
McNulty seemed more than comfortable despite the challenges of the poorly surfaced, rugged ascent perched high above the coastline. By the summit, 22km from the line, he was more than half a minute ahead of his closest pursuers, Zana and Ormzel, and with the peloton shattered behind, it appeared like much of the heavy lifting the rider from Arizona needed to take the stage win and lead was done.
Ten kilometres further on, having successfully negotiated the twisting descent and headed onto much more straightforward roads, McNulty then exploited his well-known time trialling skills to the maximum to open a gap of 1:10 and rising.
The limited collaboration behind in a roughly formed chase group of 15 riders between the top-name teams, Ineos Grenadiers and Soudal-QuickStep, only gave the American even more of an advantage. Then when Kwiatkowski drove clear with Nicolau and Zambanini, their refusal to work with the Polish rider more than the bare minimum was yet another nail in the coffin for McNulty's rivals.
All that could really stop McNulty by this point was a late drop in his strength, but that wasn't going to be the case. Rather than having any problems on the final third-category ascent at Labin, he stormed up the ascent with virtually no drop in his pace, blazing across the late section of cobbles and crossing the line to claim his fifth win of the season and the overall lead.
Meanwhile, Kwiatkowski tried to outpace Zambanini for second, but despite the Italian looking back constantly, his driving acceleration to the line was more than a match for his Polish challenger.
Stage 4 from Karlovav to Sveta Nedelja is much shorter and less challenging than Friday's ultra-hilly coastline trek, but it could see some important GC attacks in its the second half, with a category two climb close to the finish.
For now, though, with a 1:39 advantage overall on closest pursuer Zambanini, the 2025 CRO Race looks very much like McNulty's to lose.
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