Restaurant chain Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc (NASDAQ:CBRL) aims to show it has moved on from the backlash over a logo change when it reports first-quarter financial results Tuesday after market close.
Here are the earnings estimates, what analysts are saying ahead of the report and key items to watch.
Earnings Estimates: Analysts expect Cracker Barrel to report first-quarter revenue of $802.22 million, down from $845.09 million in last year's first quarter, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
The company has beaten analyst estimates for revenue in only three of the last 10 quarters. The revenue estimate would mark the lowest quarterly revenue for Cracker Barrel in 15 quarters, dating back to the third fiscal quarter of 2022 ($790.2 million).
Analysts expect Cracker Barrel to report a loss of 68 cents per share for the first quarter, down from a profit of 45 cents per share in last year's first quarter.
The company has beaten analyst estimates for earnings per share in four of the last 10 quarters overall.
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What Analysts Are Saying: Analysts have been cautious on Cracker Barrel since the company reported fourth-quarter financial results. Those results included the quarter ended Aug. 1 and didn't include the backlash and boycotts stemming from a planned logo change in mid-August.
Bank of America Securities analyst Sara Senatore said the company's fourth-quarter results and forward guidance showed the response to the company's rebrand could hurt the stock.
"Negative rebrand response a setback for turnaround," Senatore said.
The analyst said the sales momentum in the fourth quarter was “overshadowed” by the backlash to the company’s logo change and store décor changes.
“With younger consumers reacting more strongly than older consumers, we see risk that efforts to evolve the brand have been stymied, at least temporarily.”
The analyst reiterated an Underperform rating and lowered the price target from $48 to $42 after Q4 results.
Traffic declines in the fourth quarter and updated guidance were reasons for Piper Sandler analyst Brian Mullan to lower the price target from $56 to $49 after Q4 results, while maintaining a Neutral rating.
The analyst said that Cracker Barrel’s fourth-quarter traffic was down 1% and remained around that level through the first 18 days of the current first quarter.
“Following the unveiling of the new logo on August 19 and the related media attention, traffic has been running down ~8%,” Mullan said.
The analyst said 2026 guidance was below consensus and shows the potential for traffic down 4% to 7% for the full fiscal year. EBITDA guidance was also well below estimates.
Here are other recent analyst ratings on Cracker Barrel and their price targets:
- UBS: Maintained Neutral rating, lowered price target from $48 to $30
- Truist: Maintained Buy rating, lowered price target from $58 to $50
- Citigroup: Maintained Sell rating, lowered price target from $42 to $24
Key Items to Watch: Data from Placer.ai shows just how much visitor traffic fell at Cracker Barrel locations after the logo change.
Data shows that visits fell 5.3% in the week of Aug. 25 through Aug. 31, after the logo change on Aug. 19.
Visits fell even more in the weeks after the company announced plans to revert to the old logo on Aug. 26. Here are the visits tracked by Placer.ai:
- Week of Sept. 1: -10.1% year-over-year
- Week of Sept. 8: -10.0% year-over-year
- Week of Sept. 15: -9.9% year-over-year
- Week of Sept. 22: -7.2% year-over-year
"The consumer backlash to Cracker Barrel's new logo in August triggered a sharp decline in restaurant visits, with year-over-year traffic dropping by roughly double digits for most weeks following the announcement," Placer.ai Head of Analytical Research R.J. Hottovy said.
The data from Placer.ai showed sharp declines in visits to Cracker Barrel for several weeks, but a potential recovery in the last week of September.
Visits fell 7.2% in the last week of September, reversing course from the 10% declines in three straight weeks.
Overall, September monthly visits were down 12.1% year-over-year according to the Placer.ai data. That comes after the month of August saw visits down 0.1% year-over-year.
That might be a key point in the first-quarter results, which will include the month of August. Even with the logo change happening in August and a 5.3% drop in the last full week for visits, the month ended almost even for visit growth, according to the report.
The fourth quarter marked the fifth consecutive quarter of comparable-store restaurant sales increases, but future quarters could see pressure as the backlash occurred after the end of the fourth quarter.
Cracker Barrel’s fiscal 2026 revenue guidance of $3.35 billion to $3.45 billion fell short of analyst estimates of $3.47 billion.
The impact of the backlash on the Q1 results and the forward guidance from a potential recovery are the top details investors and analysts will likely be watching for on Tuesday.
CBRL Price Action: Cracker Barrel stock is down 2.7% to $27.07 on Monday versus a 52-week trading range of $25.62 to $71.93. Cracker Barrel shares are down 50.7% year-to-date in 2025.
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Image created using artificial intelligence via Gemini.
