The North West’s R number has now risen above 1, the M.E.N. can reveal, meaning it now has the highest rate of Covid transmission in the country.
Scientists from the Public Health England and Cambridge University have been tracking how the virus spreads - a number known as the ‘R’ value - throughout the pandemic and their latest analysis now shows every region hovering just below or just above the crucial 1 figure, the government’s crucial measure of whether the disease is under control.
It shows the North West now running above that at 1.01, up from 0.73 a few weeks ago when the data was last released and higher than anywhere else.
The South West is listed as exactly 1, although the researchers believe the number of new daily infections there is 'relatively low'. It is followed by the South East on 0.97, London on 0.95 - a huge increase from its last value of 0.4 - and the East of England on 0.94.
It measures the number in the Midlands to be at 0.9 and in the North East and Yorkshire, which previously had the highest R value, at 0.89.
The figures will pose questions for the government about the easing of the lockdown, as well as questions over how it intends to handle the rise.
"There is some evidence that Rt [the R] has risen in all regions and we believe that this is probably due to increasing mobility and mixing between households and in public and workplace settings," says the analysis.
"An increase in Rt will lead to a slowdown in the decrease in new infections and deaths.
"There is evidence, from the forecast of deaths for the whole of England, that the increases in the regional reproductive numbers may result in the decline in the national death rate being arrested by mid-June."
Previously ministers have said they will move towards 'local lockdowns' and the use of tracking and tracing should the spread start to increase again, but the national tracing system is not yet fully operational and plans for localised action have not yet been finalised.
Asked about the numbers, Greater Manchester Andy Burnham said: “It’s very worrying. It appears, I would say, that lockdown has been relaxed too early, given the fact that ‘track, test and trace’ is some way from being up and running.
“I think it begs the question as to whether the advice is right to people in the North West.”
Nationally, the government has been quoting the R number as being within a range of up to 0.9 for some weeks.
However the latest analysis shows two regions have now just tipped over into territory where the virus could begin to spread exponentially.
It also comes as Greater Manchester reported a mixed picture on the current Covid situation here on Wednesday.
Hospital deaths from the virus increased slightly over the past week - from 53 to 58 - while Covid admissions appear to have returned to April levels.
However care home infections have been dropping, as have new cases.
