Predictions of a fourth Covid-19 wave based on mathematical models are overblown as no model is, or can be, prescient enough to make such a forecast, experts told TOI on Tuesday. They were reacting to queries about an IIT-Kanpur analysis - yet to be peer-reviewed - that claimed India could see a fourth wave sometime in June, with a peak in August, reports Nisha Nambiar.
Professor Gautam Menon, a mathematical modeller at Ashoka University, said a fourth wave, if it comes at all, will most likely be driven by a new variant and not by waning immunity against ones already circulating. "And this is impossible to predict. We can only be vigilant and continue to collect data that lets us react quicker and effectively," Menon said.
Dr Lalit Kant, former head of epidemiology and communicable diseases at ICMR, said it's "not easy" to convert a biological phenomenon into an accurate mathematical formula, especially if there are a large number of unknown variables.
