In the space of a few hours, former two-division UFC champ and box office king Conor McGregor went from negotiating a July return to announcing his retirement at age 30.
Obviously, something went down between McGregor’s appearance on “The Tonight Show” with Jimmy Fallon and his tweet in Tuesday’s wee hours. Did the Irish star have a sudden epiphany that made him reconsider his career, or is this just another stunt to be reversed later at a press conference? Here are four reasons to believe McGregor, and four to call B.S.
1) BELIEVE: He’s got enough money
No UFC fighter has made as much cash as McGregor inside and outside the octagon. He almost singlehandedly reversed a downtrend in pay-per-view buys and accounted for more than one-quarter of the promotion’s sales in 2015. And that was before he broke the bank with a reported $123 million for his “Money Fight” with Floyd Mayweather.
Just this past October, McGregor was one-half of the highest-selling UFC pay-per-view in history against Khabib Nurmagomedov. He diversified into the whiskey business, and early reviews indicate his popularity washed Proper 12 down a lot smoother than critics.
By all appearances, McGregor lives a pretty lavish lifestyle and spends like a champ. Plus, he employs a small army of lawyers for various legal troubles. But he could never strap on his gloves again and be just fine, provided he doesn’t buy an island or a sports franchise.
Next page: BELIEVE: He’s almost done it all
2) BELIEVE: He’s almost done it all
It took McGregor just over two years to win his first UFC title, and three-and-a-half to win his second. He made history as the first fighter to simultaneously hold belts in two divisions. He decimated some of the featherweight division’s toughest fighters – taking 13 seconds to end Jose Aldo’s long reign – and easily beat Eddie Alvarez. He also avenged a loss to Nate Diaz in a welterweight foray.
So, what’s left? Unless he pursues a belt at welterweight, McGregor is just retreading old ground. It’s impossible he’ll return to featherweight, where he struggled on the scale. He’s already tried to recapture the lightweight belt from Khabib Nurmagomedov, and that didn’t go so well. Does he think the result will change in less than one year? There’s still plenty of cash to be made in a rematch, and a trilogy fight with Diaz is money in the bank. But if McGregor can’t win back gold, he’d have to be content with simply taking part, and not taking over.
Next page: BELIEVE: He knows he’ll never beat Khabib
3) BELIEVE: He knows he’ll never beat Khabib
Five months ago, the question of the best UFC lightweight in the world was still an open one. Now, we know the answer. Nurmagomedov outwrestled McGregor and even dropped him with a punch. Grappling has always been McGregor’s weakness, and Nurmagomedov is quite possibly the best-ever lightweight grappler. There are certainly adjustments that McGregor can make, and perhaps he can delay the inevitable. But it’s hard to see how he gets up to speed with Nurmagomedov in such a short time. And with his former head coach John Kavanagh hedging on working with him again, he could lose the team that pushed him to incredible heights during his heyday.
McGregor is loathe to be anything other than the alpha wherever he goes. Could he stand to stick around as the No. 2 to Nurmagomedov? Doubtful.
Next page: BELIEVE: He’s in deep legal trouble
4) BELIEVE: He’s in deep legal trouble
Only Jon Jones gets into as much trouble outside of the cage as McGregor. Two pending cases currently hang over the ex-champ’s head, and on Tuesday, he was named in a New York Times Report as the subject of a sexual assault investigation. The report claims a woman accused McGregor of assault at a hotel in Dublin this past December, and police have video and physical evidence. If the claims are true – and because of Irish privacy laws, it’s impossible to confirm McGregor’s identity – they could expose the fighter to serious punishment.
Through his high-powered legal reps, McGregor has thus far been able to avoid doing any time. Whether or not that remains true in the future is the ongoing question.
Next page: BS: We’ve seen this before
1) BS: We’ve seen this before
Almost three years ago, McGregor did almost the exact thing he did Tuesday. One month removed from a stunning upset loss to Nate Diaz at UFC 196, he told fans, “Thanks for the cheese. Catch ya’s later.” As it turned out, the whole thing was about a spat over promotional duties. UFC President Dana White said he pulled McGregor for not playing ball, and McGregor walked back his announcement by explaining he didn’t want to break training for interviews with “Tim and Suzie on the nobody gives a (expletive) morning show.” UFC 200 came and went, and two months later, McGregor vs. Diaz 2 was booked for UFC 202. It was the promotion’s biggest pay-per-view event to date, and nobody said a word about retirement.
Next page: BS: This is just negotiation
2) BS: This is just negotiation
One week ago, McGregor stood atop a bar, asking for a share of the UFC’s profits. Contrary to Dana White’s claims, he said he’d gladly accept any position on a UFC card for a cut of the promotion’s revenue. At no time did he threaten to hang up his gloves.
For McGregor, ownership is a natural extension of his value to the company. The numbers don’t lie – he’s a major profit center for the promotion, and he wants to be acknowledged as such by having a direct stake in its success.
When previous calls for co-ownership were politely dismissed, McGregor fought for brand equity by putting McGregor Sports and Entertainment on the canvas for “The Money Fight.” Now that the UFC has put pay-per-views behind the ESPN paywall, potentially affecting the payout of those who benefit from a successful show, it would make sense that he’s digging in his heels.
Next page: BS: Dana White is welcoming it
3) BS: Dana White is welcoming it
The first time McGregor retired, White basically told everybody not to panic. The promotion had its priorities, and the Irish star simply wasn’t living up to his responsibilities. Action had to be taken.
Now, White is darn near rolling out the welcome mat. McGregor has the money, has accomplished everything and been “so fun to watch,” and his whiskey is “KILLIN it.” And in any event, White said, “I’m sure he has other things he’s working on.”
It’s a funny thing, considering just a few months ago, White was sternly against the 40-year-old Daniel Cormier retiring. Yet for the 30-year-old McGregor, he can’t wait to see how much whiskey his No. 1 draw sells.
The thing is, White doesn’t have the greatest track record of honesty when UFC stars decide to hang it up. All too often, his assessments are tied to the personal battles or lack thereof in his history with them. He questioned the will of Georges St-Pierre for years before the former welterweight and middleweight champ called it quits. And as we later found out, the real reason for the announcement was the UFC’s refusal to make a fight with Nurmagomedov.
Next page: BS: No seriously, the UFC needs McGregor
4) BS: No seriously, the UFC needs McGregor
The promotion may have stabilized its pay-per-view revenue stream with ESPN, but that doesn’t mean it doesn’t need stars any more. They might be more important than ever given the millions of dollars attached to the deal, and there’s no bigger star than McGregor at this moment. However nostalgic White appears to be at the moment, there’s nothing that brushes that side faster than wads of $100 bills and the fighters that deliver them.
Simple economics forever bond promoters and fighters – the rest is just details. Whatever sticking points McGregor and the UFC have hit, both sides will eventually come to their senses and realize there’s plenty of mutual benefit left before the till runs dry.
For more on the UFC’s upcoming schedule, check out the UFC Rumors section of the site.
