Aluminium prices remain elevated amid persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with prolonged supply disruptions and concerns over tighter global inventories keeping sentiment firmly bullish. The supply shortages are acting as structural tailwinds, and any further escalation in the US-Iran conflict could trigger sharp spikes in prices due to already depleted global stockpiles.
May aluminium contracts were trading higher on the MCX around 2:30 pm, rising by 0.4% to hit the day's high of Rs 382.85 per kg.
Ajit Mishra, Senior Vice President, Research at Religare Broking, said aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) have risen by 2.2% over the past month, bringing the total increase over the last year to roughly 45.2%. The market outlook remains strong as supply disruptions in the Middle East continue to drag on, he said.
“A standoff between the US and Iran has worsened following an exchange of threats, which has completely halted cargo ship traffic through the Persian Gulf. Additionally, direct attacks on the region's largest refineries mean it will take much longer for normal production to recover. The market emphasises that these high prices are driven by lasting supply shortages, rather than just an increase in demand,” Mishra said, emphasising that global stockpiles are currently so low that even a small buying order or minor news about the US-Iran conflict could trigger a massive, sudden spike in prices.
