The Indianapolis Colts are in a win-and-in situation for the playoffs as they are set to host the Houston Texans on Saturday night.
The winner of this contest not only will make the postseason but if the Tennessee Titans are able to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars, the winning team will also win the AFC South.
If the Colts do beat the Texans on Saturday night then it will be the first time they have swept Houston and Tennessee in the same season since 2014. Which happens to be the last time Indy won the AFC South.
With a chance to clinch a playoff berth with a possible home playoff game makes the stakes even higher for both franchises. Here are five things to watch for when they faceoff in Lucas Oil Stadium in prime time:
1
Facing C.J. Stroud
If the Colts will find a way to beat their divisional rivals then it starts with not allowing C.J. Stroud to carve their young secondary up. In the first meeting between these two franchises in Week 2, Stroud threw for 384 yards and two touchdowns in a 31-20 loss to Indianapolis.
That was the second-most yards he threw for in a game this season. Stroud has crossed the 300-yard mark in six of 14 games while averaging 274.6 passing YPG and throwing 21 touchdowns and five interceptions.
Timing and ball placement have made Stroud succeed in his rookie season. He’s able to deliver balls with precision on every level of the field, which makes him such a threat when he has time in the pocket. It was on display in his return from a concussion in Week 17 against the Titans.
Small sidestep in the pocket and still gets this throw on the deep Out out of his hand plenty early.
CJ Stroud 👍👍 pic.twitter.com/2ZhuDqTKFe
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) January 3, 2024
Shane Steichen gave Stroud very high praise on how well he was playing before his concussion.
Steichen on C.J. Stroud: "He was playing at an MVP level there."
— Joel A. Erickson (@JoelAErickson) January 2, 2024
Gus Bradley can’t allow Stroud to sit back and play catch with his receivers like Aidan O’Connell did in the second half against the Colts last week. He will have to scheme up ways to not only get consistent pressure to throw off his chemistry and timing with his receivers but also try his best to confuse him with coverages to force a turnover or two.
If the Indy defense fails to get that done then it will lead to a long Saturday night for the unit.
2
Which Gardner Minshew shows up?
As much as this contest could come down to how well the Indy defense plays against C.J. Stroud, the outcome could very well be dependent on which Gardner Minshew shows up. On any given week, Minshew can help guide the team to a win but also be the reason why the offense sputters and fails to sustain drives to put points on the board.
The Colts are 7-5 in the games Minshew has started this season, which will be his best record as a starter since he went 6-6 in his rookie year with the Jaguars. This shouldn’t be a surprise if you have watched every game but the five games he lost all included at least one giveaway from Minshew.
Minshew turning the ball over isn’t an automatic loss for Indianapolis, in four of the seven games he won as a starter, he did have at least one turnover.
In the first matchup against Houston, Minshew took over in the second quarter for an injured Anthony Richardson with a 14-7 lead. He led two straight touchdown drives to end the first half and played mistake-free to help leave with a victory.
He finished the game 19/23 for 171 yards and a touchdown. How Minshew filled in this game and how he played in the wins where he didn’t turn over the ball is what Shane Steichen needs on Saturday night.
The biggest key for Minshew is to not panic with pressure. When he does, he misses open guys, leaves the pocket way too early, and walks himself into sacks. Not panicking was something he did very well in crucial plays in the win over the Las Vegas Raiders.
The first one came on the 58-yard touchdown pass to Alec Pierce on a third-and-one.
3rd-and-1. Shane Steichen dials up a max protect play action shot play. Alec Pierce took advantage of the free release and breezed past the defender for the 58-yard TD. Longest reception of his career.
Great job by Gardner Minshew to not panic and hit him in stride. pic.twitter.com/cn1qVSmGu3
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) January 2, 2024
What was even more impressive was when he stood tall with Maxx Crosby in his face to convert a big fourth down in the second half.
4th-and-2 after LV made it a 14-10 game. Gardner Minshew does another great job not panicking under pressure with Maxx Crosby in his face.
Stands and flicks the ball to Michael Pittman Jr.'s outside shoulder for a 20-yard gain. pic.twitter.com/J7XHLYLACW
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) January 2, 2024
If the Colts can get this out of Minshew on Saturday night then they should be in a position to win this game in the fourth quarter.
3
Defending Nico Collins
Year 3 can be the season when everything clicks for a receiver and he sees a major boom in his production. That happens to be the case for Nico Collins who has emerged as a threat in Houston’s passing attack. He has more receptions (71), receiving yards (1,102), and touchdowns (seven) this year than he had in his first two seasons combined.
He has been one of C.J. Stroud’s favorite targets and without Tank Dell in the lineup, he’s his go-to guy.
Nico Collins' three full games with C.J. Stroud + no Tank Dell (including Week 13 when Dell left early):
* 29.9% target share (9th)
* Targeted on 36% of routes (7th)
* 117 YPG (3rd)
* 4.81 YPRR (2nd)— John Daigle (@notJDaigle) January 2, 2024
With the Colts struggling to slow down Davante Adams despite knowing the ball was going his way (21 targets), the defense allowed the best receiver on Las Vegas to eat. Seeing that performance from Adams likely has Collins think he has a chance to have another big game against Indianapolis.
In the Week 2 contest, Collins had seven receptions for 146 yards and a touchdown. This time he will be facing a different pair of starting boundary cornerbacks. It was Dallis Flowers and Darrell Baker Jr. that he got the best of on that day but this time around it will be a pair of rookies in JuJu Brents and Jaylon Jones.
Both have shown some good things this season and Brents is coming off his best showing since his return from injury in Week 15. He had some great reps in coverage against Adams in the second half.
JuJu Brents in coverage against Davante Adams on back-to-back plays late in the 4th quarter. Got physical fighting at the top of the route on a 2nd down but pulled his arms back to avoid the DPI.
Mirrors Adams and uses the boundary for leverage to force the FG on 3rd down. pic.twitter.com/kXLav8YJzK
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) January 2, 2024
While Collins isn’t the talent that Adams is, but he is capable of creating explosive plays with Stroud. Gus Bradley can’t allow a team’s best receiver to go off for the second week in a row.
4
Can Jonathan Taylor dominate?
With the playoffs on the line, this is a matchup that the Colts need their star back they just paid to help beat their division rival to keep their season alive. Jonathan Taylor has been on the edge of blowing up the box score but the splitting of reps with Zack Moss and others in the backfield has kept his numbers low.
He has yet to cross the 100-yard rushing yard mark this season but has run over 90 yards in two of his last three games. If there was a spot for him to break that mark for the first time, this is it. Especially because of the success he’s had against Houston in the past.
In five career games against Houston, he averages 124.6 rushing YPG and has seven total touchdowns. There wasn’t one game where he didn’t find the endzone. In his last three games versus the Texans, he has crossed 140 rushing yards but the last time he played in this series was in the 2022 season opener.
In that game, he had 161 rushing yards, which included 49 yards on four straight runs on a drive that sent that contest into overtime.
Jonathan Taylor ran the ball 4 straight times for 49 yards on the #Colts game-tying touchdown drive. pic.twitter.com/LSumdWvrPa
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) September 12, 2022
The one thing that boosted the rushing attack last week was that it was the first game since the beginning of the season when the starting offensive line started and finished the game.
JT took advantage of that unit on the opening drive with three straight runs for 20 yards to score the first touchdown of the game.
Jonathan Taylor took three straight carries from the 20-yard line to score for the #Colts. Loved the execution of the blocking assignments on the final two runs.
– 5 yards
– 10 yards
– 5-yard TDLuckily Quenton Nelson avoided a serious injury getting rolled up on the TD. pic.twitter.com/rsUPLBFWk1
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) January 1, 2024
As the line gelled through the first three quarters, it benefited not only Taylor but Trey Sermon in the fourth quarter when Shane Steichen leaned into the run to help close out the game.
In the 4th quarter, the #Colts ran the ball 10 times in a row for 74 yards between two drives. They got 53 of those yards on three runs.
– 15 yards (Jonathan Taylor)
– 27 Yards (Trey Sermon – longest of career)
– 11 yards (JT)Loved the blocking execution. pic.twitter.com/p8slkiRcxH
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) January 2, 2024
The concern with the rushing attack heading into this matchup is that Indianapolis may not have their starting lineup. Ryan Kelly practiced just once this week with an ankle injury that he suffered against the Raiders. He did return in that game so unless this is a serious injury, I can see him pushing through it with the postseason on the line.
But the good news for the Indy side is that the entire starting defensive front four for Houston is also dealing with injuries. If they are unable to go or are playing less than 100% then it could set up a day where the offensive line dominates the trenches to allow JT to explode.
Knowing that heading into the matchup, I can see Steichen leaning into the run early in this game to wear down the Texans’ defense for the fourth quarter.
5
Consistent pressure from defensive front
The Indy defensive front got hot back in November but has tailed off some with some inconsistency throughout December. Last week was a perfect example of the ups and downs we have seen in this unit lately. Entering halftime they registered two sacks and six QB hits.
That was what they finished with. Gus Bradley’s front four couldn’t get any pressure on the quarterback which gave Aidan O’Connell and his receivers to have plenty of time to find a hole in the secondary. As I alluded to with C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins, that is something this defense can’t afford to repeat in Week 18.
The Colts have the fourth-most sacks (49) in the NFL while the Texans have given up the sixth-most sacks (45). In the first meeting, Indianapolis found success getting after Stroud.
They finished with six sacks and nine QB hits and also forced the only turnover of the game.
Samson Ebukam's great pass rush rep and Dayo Odeyingbo's effort on the peanut punch helped create the only turnover forced by the #Colts defense. pic.twitter.com/3bUqikSr3s
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) September 18, 2023
It should be noted that Laremy Tunsil didn’t play in that matchup and that was something Samson Ebukam took advantage of.
If the Colts can dominate the trenches on both sides of the ball then I like their chances of making it to the postseason.
