The Indianapolis Colts enter Week 16 in the thick of a contentious battle for the AFC South crown and a playoff berth. Nothing can be settled this weekend but each game continues to matter more because of win or loss will have major implications heading into Week 17.
The Colts will be on the road against the Atlanta Falcons. The two franchises have faced each other just 17 times since 1966 with Indianapolis having won 15 of those contests.
The two wins by the Falcons came in 2011 (in Indy) and 1998 (in Atlanta). The Falcons should be a feisty team in this matchup because a loss will basically eliminate them from the postseason and a win can keep their slim playoff chances alive.
With both teams needing a big win on Sunday, let’s take a look at five things to watch for:
1
Facing Taylor Heinicke
The Falcons are again making a change at quarterback after Arthur Smith announced that Taylor Heinicke will start in the final three weeks to close out the regular season. Throughout the season, Atlanta is averaging 200.8 passing YPG, the 10th fewest in the NFL.
In the two starts for Heinicke this season, he’s averaged 221.5 passing YPG while throwing two touchdowns and an interception in those games. Even though it was with the Washington Commanders, Heinicke should still be somewhat fresh in the minds of players on the defense.
In a 17-16 loss to the Commanders, Heinicke threw for 279 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. He also had six rushes for 29 yards and a touchdown. Which also includes a nine-play, 89-yard game-winning drive.
Taylor Heinicke led a nine-play, 89-yard TD drive to secure the @Commanders a Week 8 win! pic.twitter.com/xjEkacQDJU
— NFL (@NFL) October 31, 2022
Gus Bradley should have some revenge on his mind and have a better gameplan against Heinicke this time around. If they can keep him from getting into a rhythm and not allow him to move the chains with his legs, then they should be able to keep a struggling passing attack from getting on track with Heinicke.
2
Can Gardner Minshew find success?
Gardner Minshew is coming off his best game as the starting quarterback. After throwing for 215 yards and three touchdowns, he will face an Atlanta defense that has kept the opponent’s passing attack at bay this season. They are allowing 199.5 passing YPG, the 10th fewest in the league.
Over their last six games, only two quarterbacks finished with over 200 passing yards, which were Derek Carr and Kyler Murray. In those six contests, they’ve only allowed four passing touchdowns and those came in two games.
The positive side is that even though the Falcons have limited their opponent’s passing yards, they have only gotten their hands on the ball for just three interceptions in those six contests.
The good things from Minshew in his performance against the Steelers must carry over in the final three weeks. Not only did he protect the ball, but he did a better job at knowing when to look to escape the pocket to extend a play, which helped pick up a crucial first down.
Big third down conversion by the #Colts down 13-0. 3rd-and-5, Gardner Minshew escapes the pocket to extend the play, points for Michael Pittman Jr. to get up the field, the cornerback trailing MPJ falls to the ground, and they pick up 42 yards for the first down. pic.twitter.com/frBvMbIgtH
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) December 17, 2023
Minshew’s ball placement was also improved from what it looked like in the Week 15 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. His throws were to open spots for his receivers and gave them space to pick up yards after the catch or walk in the endzone like Mo-Alie Cox.
First play following the #Colts second takeaway. Gardner Minshew drops the ball right into the waiting arms of a wide-open Mo Alie-Cox for an 18-yard TD. pic.twitter.com/7ZRRXXjtZO
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) December 18, 2023
It’s a weekly safe bet that Atlanta’s defense will look to limit the Indy rushing attack and dare Minshew to beat them, if he can stack back-to-back games like this then the Colts should be in position to win this matchup in the fourth quarter.
3
Continued improvement from the rush defense
The Indy defense was getting gashed on the ground through the middle part of the season which is why they have allowed 114.7 rushing YPG this year, the 13th most allowed in the NFL. But the obvious was that the team was missing Grover Stewart, who was serving a six-game suspension until he made his return in Week 14.
In the last two games with Stewart back in the lineup, Joe Mixon, Chase Brown, Najee Harris, and Jaylen Warren combined for 177 rushing yards while averaging 3.47 YPC.
Under Arthur Smith, the Falcons are known for being a run-heavy offense, which carries over from his days as the offensive coordinator with the Tennessee Titans. Atlanta averages 126.4 rushing YPG, the ninth-most in the NFL.
While much to the dismay of fantasy football managers, Smith hasn’t leaned into his top 10 draft pick Bijan Robinson. The rookie running back has split carries with Tyler Allgeier, even though Robinson has been more efficient with his touches.
In comparison, Robinson has 176 rushing attempts and averages 4.6 YPC while Allgeier has 166 rushing attempts and averages 3.5 YPC. With Robinson’s efficiency and homerun ability, it makes you wonder why Smith doesn’t give his young back the ball more often but one possible reason might be that he has put the ball on the ground multiple times this season.
Robinson has fumbled three times and has lost all of them, which include one from last week that led to him not getting the ball again in Atlanta’s loss to the Carolina Panthers.
lost in the "I can't believe Arthur Smith didn't play Bijan Robinson more" conversation is this brutal fumble by Bijan Robinson
it gifted the Panthers 3 points
(was his final touch. Would he fumble again? Likely not. Allgeier/C-Patt combined for just 5 more touches in the 4Q) pic.twitter.com/d2cCBV3Jy9
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) December 19, 2023
This should be a focus point for the Indy defense, there could be an opportunity to force a turnover when making a tackle attempt on Robinson.
The Arthur Smith offense is fueled through their rushing attack so if Gus Bradley can get his defensive front seven to dominate all four quarters then they should keep the Falcons out of the red zone often on Sunday.
4
Who's in the backfield?
There are some question marks surrounding the availability of Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss for Week 16 but there is more optimism that Taylor will be back after missing the last three weeks. Since Sunday, there have been reports that the team will be back against the Falcons, and after registering a full practice on Wednesday, it appears the star back is trending to take back over the backfield.
#Colts coach Shane Steichen told reporters that RB Jonathan Taylor is progressing well and will participate in the walk-through today (as he's done the last few weeks).
There remains optimism that Taylor will go this week, but he'll be evaluated on a daily basis.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) December 20, 2023
The last time Taylor was on the field, he was a big factor in the Colts’ win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The #Colts first TD came behind 2 straight runs for 21 yards by Jonathan Taylor.
– JT gets skinny in a hole for a 17-yard gain.
– Great blocking by Bernhard Raimann & Will Mallory leaves him 1-on-1 against Devin White for the 4-yard score. pic.twitter.com/KhxykXP90G
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) November 28, 2023
The #Colts rode Jonathan Taylor three straight times for 19 yards for their third touchdown of the game.
– 8 yards
– 10 yards
– 1-yard TDQuenton Nelson on that first run lol and followed that up opening a lane on the second one. pic.twitter.com/VQPPwEbUxL
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) November 28, 2023
As far as Moss, Wednesday’s practice report wasn’t a promising sign that he won’t miss this contest after he started the week with a DNP. The good news is that the backfield showed some quality depth when he left the game against the Steelers.
If Moss can’t go then I would expect a mixture of Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson to spell Taylor (if he plays). Both were unsung heroes in the win over Pittsburgh.
Sermon played a vital role in a time-consuming drive that helped close out the win when he got 10 carries for 57 yards, which included three third-down conversions.
On a drive that took 8:57 off the clock between the 3rd and 4th quarter, the #Colts ran the ball 13 straight times which included 3 third down conversions by Trey Sermon.
3rd-and-1: 9 yards
3rd-and-2: 19 yards
3rd-and-5: 5 yardsSermon had 10 rushes for 57 yards on the drive. pic.twitter.com/aTFoeDeJNl
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) December 18, 2023
If Taylor is indeed in the lineup, while I would expect to see Sermon, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Goodson get the second-most touches out of the backfield. He showed some nice things as a pass catcher and some juice on the longest run of the game for Indianapolis.
Tyler Goodson taking advantage of a pulling Quenton Nelson vs a cornerback for the longest run (31 yards) of the game for the #Colts pic.twitter.com/WLww9ptZVu
— Cody Manning (@CodyTalksNFL) December 18, 2023
Regardless of who is at back, if the offensive line can dominate the trenches as they did in Week 15, then whoever gets the ball should help move the chains on the ground.
5
Defending Drake London
The 2022 first-round pick for the Falcons is their leading receiver with 58 receptions for 769 yards and two touchdowns on 87 targets. The receptions-to-targets comparison for Drake London tells a story about the quarterback play he has dealt with.
There is a lot of chatter about the use of London (among others) in Arthur Smith’s offense. Maybe having Taylor Heinicke in the lineup can turn those targets into catches but based on a small sample size, the looks for Drake could drop with him in the lineup.
Drake London was targeted on 3 (14.3%) of Taylor Heinicki's 21 passes when the two shared the field together mid-year.
London was averaging a 24.6% target share from Desmond Ridder.
— John Daigle (@notJDaigle) December 19, 2023
After only seeing three targets in the loss to the Falcons, I would expect Arthur Smith to make a concerted effort to get the ball in Drake’s hands. In the four games this season he has been targeted at least eight times, he averaged 110.5 receiving YPG.
He’s the biggest threat in Atlanta’s passing attack so it will be up to JuJu Brents and Jaylon Jones to lock him down. If the secondary can hold Drake and Heinicke from developing some chemistry then the Indy defense should stall a passing attack looking to finish the season on a strong note.
