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Sports Illustrated

Bryan Fischer

College Football Playoff Projection After Week 6: Chaos Shakes Up Postseason Picture

Football Miami Ohio State College Football Playoff Penn State Texas Alabama (Organization) Oklahoma (Organization) Ole Miss Texas Tech

If you cover college football for any amount of time, you have to further and further refine your definition of trust in the sport. During the preseason, this is essential. We don’t know about these teams from week to week, much less year to year when player movement is constant and NIL has introduced a host of new factors to consider.

So we often lean on things that look like we can trust them. A veteran quarterback coming back is one example, a good play-calling head coach is another and the biggest of all is when dozens of returning starters try to run it all back in pursuit of a historic year.

It’s this trust that was very much betrayed in 2025. Back in the summer, we bought into all those returnees at places like Penn State and Clemson. We bought into the hype around a quarterback at Texas because of trust in a last name and a coach’s track record assembling a good offense. We trusted in other teams to string together consecutive winning seasons when nothing in their recent history suggested they could do that. We believed the scouts who said there was a ton of NFL talent at Georgia and LSU ready to deliver them to a CFP quarterfinal.

Well, so much for all that after Week 6 in the college football season underscored that you can’t really trust anything in this zany enterprise. No wonder the postseason looks much different from how we all expected it to coming into the season and how we thought things would play out even with a bit more of a sample size.

Factoring in all of the results so far, forecasting the rest of the season out and then putting our selection committee hats on, here’s the latest updated College Football Playoff projection and which matchups we could see this December.

College Football Playoff projected rankings after Week 6

Ohio State
Miami
Oregon
Alabama
Texas Tech
Texas A&M
Indiana
Georgia
Oklahoma
Ole Miss
Michigan
Tulane

First Round

No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Texas Tech
No. 11 Michigan at No. 6 Texas A&M
No. 10 Ole Miss at No. 7 Indiana
No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 8 Georgia

Quarterfinals

Sugar Bowl: No. 4 Alabama vs. winner of No. 12 Tulane–No. 5 Texas Tech
Cotton Bowl: No. 3 Oregon vs. winner of No. 11 Michigan–No. 6 Texas A&M
Orange Bowl: No. 2 Miami vs. winner of No. 10 Ole Miss–No. 7 Indiana
Rose Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State vs. winner of No. 9 Oklahoma–No. 8 Georgia

No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Texas Tech

Until proven otherwise, the Red Raiders are the prohibitive favorite in the Big 12 and have a clear path to Dallas for the conference title game even if they suffer a surprise loss along the way. The Green Wave have more Power 4 wins than Texas by mid-October and still look to be the class of the American.

Texas Tech offensive lineman Howard Sampson celebrates with quarterback Behren Morton after a touchdown pass. | Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

No. 11 Michigan at No. 6 Texas A&M

This was supposed to be a quasi-rebuilding season with a true freshman quarterback for the Wolverines, but you can’t help but think the runway is there to go into the Ohio State game with a 10–1 record. The Aggies, too, have a pretty favorable schedule and might be even better positioned to get to Atlanta than they were a year ago.

No. 10 Ole Miss at No. 7 Indiana

If this matchup was to actually fall into place, we may need to block out an hour for a joint press conference just so Lane Kiffin and Curt Cignetti can trade barbs. The Hoosiers, by the way, could be playing with house money this weekend in Eugene, Ore., given how much more winnable that game at Penn State seems later in the year.

No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 8 Georgia

There was a ton of worry about the Sooners as soon as the announcement was made about John Mateer’s injury, but given the way that Texas’s offensive line has looked, they have a great shot to win Red River with their defense and then set up a 10–2 run to the CFP once they get their star quarterback back.

Sugar Bowl: No. 4 Alabama

Revenge was served against Vanderbilt, but the Crimson Tide don’t look like they’re stopping there. They are already looking like the SEC favorite, but they can stamp that officially with a pair of wins the next few weeks.

Alabama running back Jam Miller breaks off a touchdown run to seal the victory over Vanderbilt. | Gary Cosby Jr.-Imagn Images

Cotton Bowl: No. 3 Oregon

If you’re the Ducks, do you question how good you are after seeing what Penn State did at the Rose Bowl or are you thinking you beat them so badly that you wound up winning twice on that trip to Happy Valley?

Orange Bowl: No. 2 Miami

It’s going to be tough to prevent the Hurricanes from getting a quarterfinal at home now. The ACC favorites have the best résumé in the country and it’s not even close following that win at Florida State.

Rose Bowl: No. 1 Ohio State

The Buckeyes have given up 25 points all season, but it seems completely within the realm of possibilities that they won’t play a really good team until they make it to Indianapolis.

Top 25 after Week 6

While predicting how the College Football Playoff will wind up is an exercise in projecting out wins and losses throughout the season, my own Top 25 is much more of a week-to-week task focused on the here and now. How did teams play? Who did they beat? How does the talent on hand live up to their billing—or not?