What I think, know and believe about the college football world, the Ohio State College Football Playoff problem, getting rid of coaching problems, and the legitimacy of the season, all in the latest College Football Cavalcade.
Sorry if this column sucks, it’s not my fault …
If I miss one more column, I won’t be eligible for the Big Ten Championship. You’d get Northwestern vs. a Michael Penix-less Indiana for your 2020 title, and then you’d be sad.
– Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews & @PeteFiutak
– Check out all the past Cavalcades
– Fiiiiine, put Ohio State in
– I Think, I Know, I Believe
– 5 Footballey Opinions
– Sure-Thing Picks of the Century
Wait … so giving up 491 passing yards and five touchdowns against the one decent team you played is a bad thing?
Let’s say Purdue had the best offense in the Big Ten with a great group of receivers and a future NFL starting quarterback.
Not crazy, right?
Let’s say the Boilermakers also had the league’s worst pass defense by a mile – giving up 31 more yards per game than the second-worst Rutgers pass D.
Also, let’s say they’re among the worst in the country at generating tackles for loss, allow the second-most sacks in the conference, only hit 2-of-5 field goals, and was last in the league in punting – to be fair, though, net punting is a misleading stat.
What if I told you that Purdue was 4-0, but three of its wins came against teams that aren’t going to finish with a winning record and have gone a combined 4-13 overall so far? The other win was against Indiana by seven in a wild shootout – it was a win, but the defense totally melted down and the great quarterback was outplayed, giving up three interceptions.
Also, there are two more games remaining against teams that won’t finish with a winning record, and if Purdue can’t play both of them, it won’t be able to play in the Big Ten Championship.
Would Purdue be considered an automatic pick for the top five in the latest College Football Playoff rankings? No, but top ten yes and probably the top eight.
If Purdue finished 5-0 and didn’t win the Big Ten Championship – much less if it went 4-0 – and considering its resumé with just one okay-not-great win, in a million, gajillion, bazillion years would it be considered for the College Football Playoff?
HAY-ELL no.
Now take all of that and replace Purdue with the words Ohio State, and ask yourself why America is so willing to give a free College Football Playoff pass to the Buckeyes.
Has the program earned the benefit of the College Football Playoff doubt? Not really, at least compared to Clemson and Alabama it hasn’t – 2014 was seven seasons ago and OSU hasn’t won a CFP game since.
Is it because of the talent level? LSU has NFL talent. So does Miami, and Auburn, and Texas A&M, and Florida, and North Carolina. Ohio State might have more, but that’s not supposed to mean anything in the College Football Playoff discussion.
Is it because of the always murky “eye test” that so many like to use as a default fallback when they can’t come up with a real reason? Here’s what I get whenever I’ve made this argument …
“Come on … you KNOW this is one of the four best teams … “
Actually, no. I don’t.
I mean … okay, yeah, of course I do – I can’t bring myself to believe this isn’t at least one of the six-or-so best – but this Buckeye team is hardly a be-all-end-all juggernaut who has to be in the CFP to give the tournament any sort of legitimacy.
Have you really watched Ohio State? It’s not even close to as strong as the 2019 version. It’s obviously great, but everyone looks very good when playing very bad teams.
And let’s stop playing nice-nice here – if Indiana is your one bullet in the argument gun, there’s a problem.
Alabama destroyed Georgia, Texas A&M, and Auburn. Florida has a win over Georgia. Texas A&M has a win over Florida. Notre Dame beat Clemson, and Clemson handed Miami its only loss in an ugly blowout.
Ohio State beat Indiana 42-35.
So if Ohio State has to miss one more game and isn’t eligible to go to the Big Ten Championship, give me the playoff argument.
Give me exactly why Ohio State deserves to be honored with a top four spot in the final College Football Playoff rankings based on what it accomplished on the field this 2020 season.
If you actually believe whatever talking points fit your narrative, then you just lost Ohio State’s 2017 argument to get into the College Football Playoff over Alabama.
Now, with ALL of that said …
NEXT: FIIIIIINE …
This is a silly thing to get into a twist over in 2020, and at the end of the day, if you REALLY think Ohio State is one of the four best teams, FIIIIIINE …
Yeah, it’s Ohio State.
I might not like it if it gets in after going 4-0 or 5-0, I’d argue against it, and it wouldn’t be fair, but if there isn’t an obvious fourth option, it’s sort of hard to get too insane about this program getting in.
But let’s not assume Ohio State is missing another game quite yet.
If Ohio State finishes undefeated with a Big Ten championship, no matter what, I absolutely 100% completely and totally agree that it should be in the College Football Playoff – mostly because I believe that any unbeaten Power Five champion has to be in the tournament, especially from the Big Ten.
Understand that this whole rant has nothing whatsoever to do with Ohio State.
If you’ve read me over the years, you might remember that I was HOWLING in 2017 to the point of getting into screaming arguments with a variety of sports radio hosts – I need help, I know – over Alabama getting into the College Football Playoff after not even winning its own division.
Of course, Bama went on to win the national championship, but that doesn’t necessarily make it fair that it got in.
In a Process Matters way, I was pounding sand for Ohio State, who suffered a blowout loss at Iowa, but won the Big Ten Championship over an unbeaten Wisconsin and had one other loss to an Oklahoma team that got into the CFP.
I’m an unwavering believer that if you can’t win your conference championship, you shouldn’t deserve to be in the College Football Playoff. Now, this year, if Florida beats Alabama in a close fight AND Clemson wins a thriller over Notre Dame, I’m totally cool on all four of them getting in …
Unless Ohio State wins the Big Ten championship, and then the Irish are out.
If Ohio State can’t even play in the Big Ten title game, then you can’t assume it’s the conference champion any more than you can assume Cincinnati would win the Big 12 or BYU could take the Pac-12.
But yeah, after ALL of that, if Ohio State can’t play in the Big Ten Championship and is 4-0 or 5-0, will I go crazy about it getting in? Ehhhhh, yeah, because it’s not fair – again, if it was Purdue, no way – but okay.
At the end of the day, give me the unknown – an unbeaten Ohio State – over a possible rematch of something we’ve already seen this year.
And yes, give me the unbeaten Power Five program with four or five Power Five wins over the unbeaten Group of Five or Independent that doesn’t have any.
– Ohio State’s Playoff problem
– I Think, I Know, I Believe
– 5 Footballey Opinions
– Sure-Thing Picks of the Century
NEXT: I Think, I Know, I Believe …
America’s newest family-friendly fun-time … Think, Know, Believe
I think … the Sarah Fuller kick against Missouri was cool no matter what.
I know … a whole lot of men who were offended that a young woman got a whole lot of attention for a kick that any of us could’ve made.
I believe … 96% of those same men would’ve torn/pulled/injured something just walking into the stadium.
I think … there’s going to be a huge debate about whether or not it’s okay to be as physical playing college football with a woman on the field.
I know … two words when it comes to toughness and pain tolerance: child birth.
I believe … EVERYONE gets hurt playing football.
I think … 99% of the college football world would be totally cool if the College Football Playoff had Alabama, and three of the four out of Clemson, Notre Dame, Florida and Ohio State, no matter what the configuration.
I know … Texas A&M is getting unfairly dogged because it wasn’t razor-sharp and perfect offensively against LSU.
I believe … the College Football Playoff would LOVE to find a way to make it Ohio State vs. Notre Dame in the Rose Bowl and Alabama vs. Clemson in the Sugar.
I think … the Pac-12 still has a shot of making the College Football Playoff.
I know … it would take a massive miracle for that to happen.
I believe … if you hooked up ESPN and CFP to a lie detector, they’d want to find a way to make it Ohio State or Notre Dame vs. USC to play in the Rose Bowl and Alabama vs. Notre Dame or Ohio State in the Sugar.
I think … making Denver play that game against New Orleans without postponing or pushing it a few days later was brutally unfair.
I know … I could complete one pass in the NFL, and it’s shocking that Denver couldn’t complete two.
I believe … I’m SO wrong on that, but screw it. Yes, I would complete that pass before becoming horribly disfigured, or dead, or a spectacular combination of both.
– Ohio State’s Playoff problem
– Fiiiiine, put Ohio State in
– 5 Footballey Opinions
– Sure-Thing Picks of the Century
NEXT: The College Football Cavalcade footballey opinions on footballey stuff
Five College Football Cavalcade footballey opinions and, like, other stuff
5. Why won’t the Big 12 expand to be a 12-team conference?
I know, I know, it doesn’t want to carve up more of the pie, but when it comes to huge alumni bases, expanded TV and recruiting markets, and just making the conference a bigger thing, Cincinnati makes total sense, along with Houston, too.
For the life of me, I’ve never understood why the Big 12 or ACC hasn’t taken over I-4 and brought in UCF and USF – MASSIVE alumni, big cities, important recruiting area.
At least this year, how much fun would it have been to have Cincinnati in the Big 12? I’m not saying it wins it, but …
Iowa State is going to play for the Big 12 Championship.
4. Every team needs Jamelle Holieway
If you’re an NFL team and you’re down to your third quarterback, or worse, why not have an In Case of Emergency Break Glass plan in place with an old-school Oklahoma wishbone attack utilized to get through the day?
The chances of winning in the NFL with an emergency quarterback are next to zero, and God forbid you’re Denver on Sunday with no quarterbacks in that abomination of a game against New Orleans.
The NFL laughs at the option because it’s so simplistic – and the quarterback would get murdered – but it’s an easy offense to run with just a few basic plays. Of course, it’s all about timing, too – and that’s the problem practice-wise – but at the very least, it throws a curveball into a game and gives a desperate team a shot.
3. One year later …
Last year at this exact time we were getting ready for the conference championship games and the announcement of the College Football Playoff pairings to come a bit later.
And the Heisman votes were about to come in.
This year? College GameDay is going to Conway, South Carolina for Liberty vs. Coastal Carolina.
So remember, it’s totally okay to move around the dates for these things. They’re just college football games – they’re going to be interesting and fun no matter when they’re played.
2. It’s not like any of this matters, anyway …
Can we please stop with wondering if this college football season is “legitimate” or not? I keep getting asked about this season and if any of this should count considering all of the craziness … compared to what?
An NBA that ditched a slew of teams in a made-up regular season finish and playoffs played in a bubble?
A baseball season that didn’t even have a home field advantage in the World Series after a shortened season?
An NHL that was one big – and glorious – tournament under controlled conditions and no travel?
I’d actually argue that the college football season is second behind the NFL as the most representative of season of any of the sports.
Outside of the Ohio State issue, what else do you really need to know to come up with a legitimate champion?
1. You’re better off giving all of that money to the recruits
The greatest trick that sports agents have ever pulled was convincing the college athletics world that a long contract leads to better recruits.
Especially in this time of athletic departments gutting sports and staff, and when colleges are doing everything they can to keep the lights on, enough with the TOTAL bullspit that college football coaches need a contract extension or recruiting will suffer.
17-year-old star recruits either 1) are smart enough to know that by the time they’re done, they’ll go through at least two assistant coaching changes and will probably have another head coach, or are 2) so naive that a great salesman can land the pitch no matter what the reality is, and/or 3) will take whatever school makes the best offer.
If he doesn’t get fired, Jim Harbaugh might be at the end of his deal after next year. Here’s the recruiting pitch to any recruit who cares …
“Yeah, it’s the last year of my deal, which means I’m more motivated than ever to produce a winner, and I need you to be a part of it and make that happen as the next star at the University of Michigan.”
And there’s one other aspect to this, too … the transfer portal.
If there’s a coaching change, and the recruit doesn’t like it, he’ll just transfer.
Worst of all with this sports agent hoo-ha, even if the coach gets the extension, that doesn’t mean his job is secure. If he has the extension and stinks, the school will buy him out and there’s going to be a new coach anyway.
– Ohio State’s Playoff problem
– Fiiiiine, put Ohio State in
– I Think, I Know, I Believe
– Sure-Thing Picks of the Century
NEXT: The sure-thing picks of the century for this week
This week’s reason I should be the next Commissioner of the Big Ten …
You think Northwestern plays Indiana in your 2020 Big Ten Championship on my watch? Not bloody likely.
The sure-thing, 100%, rock-solid lock, sell the house, sell the kids, no doubt about it picks of the century for this week
PICK SO FAR: 29-22 SU, 25-31 ATS
I’m trying to get back my MAC groove, and I need to make up that -7 ATS deficit, so let’s go really, really large here …
Fortunately, all these picks are correct.
– Clemson -22 over Virginia Tech
– Ohio State -23 over Michigan State (assuming that goes on)
– Akron -2.5 over Bowling Green
– Oregon State +10.5 over Utah (but Utah straight up)
– Oklahoma State -2.5 over TCU
– Wisconsin -14.5 over Indiana
– Texas Tech -27.5 over Kansas
– Oklahoma -23 over Baylor
– South Alabama +5 over Troy
– Alabama -28.5 over LSU
Bet on any of all these games at BetMGM. Please.
C.O.W. shameless gimmick item …
The weekly five Overrated/Underrated aspects of the world
5. Overrated: Games being scheduled years and years in advance
Underrated: Calling a school up and figuring out a game a day in advance
4. Overrated: The game was canceled
Underrated: The game was cancelled
3. Overrated: Aunt Bonnie
Underrated: Aunt Joanie
2. Overrated: Jim Harbaugh probably being fired from a college job
Underrated: Jim Harbaugh probably being on the short list for at least five NFL jobs
1. Overrated: Tom Herman possibly being fired because Cameron Dicker’s kick against Iowa State went two feet to the left
Underrated: Tom Herman possibly getting an extension if senior Sam Ehlinger didn’t make a mind-bending true freshman mistake taking that late sack, and had Cameron Dicker’s kick against Iowa State gone two feet to the right
Sorry if this column sucked, it wasn’t my fault …
It was written from my living room while yelling at my TV. Fortunately, Steve Sarkisian did a good enough job filling in and there wasn’t any drama.
– Ohio State’s Playoff problem
– Fiiiiine, put Ohio State in
– I Think, I Know, I Believe
– 5 Footballey Opinions
