September arabica coffee (KCU25) today is down -0.35 (-0.10%), and September ICE robusta coffee (RMU25) is down -29 (-0.69%).
Coffee prices today fell from 2-month highs and are slightly lower. Coffee prices shed their gains and turned lower today on comments from Brazil's Agriculture Minister Favaro, who said he believes his country's coffee exports could be excluded from the 50% US tariffs on Brazilian exports.
The coffee market is awaiting clarity on US tariff policies, as President Trump has yet to exempt coffee from his 50% tariff on Brazilian exports. The tariff could hurt sales of Brazilian coffee to the US and boost Brazil's coffee inventories.
Below-average rainfall in Brazil's coffee-growing regions is supporting prices after Somar Meteorologia reported today that Brazil's largest arabica coffee-growing area, Minas Gerais, received no rain during the week ended August 16.
Coffee prices have moved higher over the past two weeks when Brazil's Trade Ministry reported on August 6 that Brazil's July unroasted coffee exports fell -20.4% y/y to 161,000 MT. In related bullish news released last Wednesday, Brazil's green coffee exports in July fell -28% y/y to 2.4 million bags, according to exporter group Cecafe. Cecafe said July arabica exports fell -21% y/y, while robusta exports plunged -49% y/y. Cecafe said Brazil's July coffee exports fell -28% to 2.7 million bags, and that coffee shipments during Jan-July fell -21% to 22.2 million bags.
A decline in ICE coffee inventories is supporting arabica prices. ICE-monitored arabica inventories fell to a 1.25-year low of 726,661 bags last Thursday, before recovering slightly to 731,739 bags on Friday. Also, ICE robusta coffee inventories fell to a 3-week low last Friday of 6,907 lots, mildly below the 2-year high of 7,029 lots posted on July 28.
The ongoing Brazilian coffee harvest is bearish for coffee prices. Safras & Mercado reported August 8 that Brazil's overall 2025/26 coffee harvest was 94% complete as of August 6, ahead of the comparable level of 92% last year. The breakdown showed that 99% of the robusta harvest and 91% of the arabica harvest were complete as of August 6. In related news, Brazil's Cooxupe coffee co-op announced Wednesday that the harvest among its members was 80.4% complete as of August 8. Cooxupe is Brazil's largest coffee cooperative and Brazil's largest exporter group.
As a bearish factor, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported August 6 that global June coffee exports rose +7.3% y/y to 11.69 million bags. However, cumulative Oct-Jun coffee exports were down -0.2% y/y at 104.14 million bags.
Due to drought, Vietnam's coffee production in the 2023/24 crop year decreased by -20% y/y to 1.472 MMT, the smallest crop in four years. Also, Vietnam's General Statistics Office reported that 2024 Vietnam coffee exports fell by -17.1% y/y to 1.35 MMT. Additionally, the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association reduced its 2024/25 Vietnam coffee production estimate to 26.5 million bags on March 12, down from a December estimate of 28 million bags. By contrast, the Vietnam National Statistics Office reported last Tuesday that Vietnam's Jan-Jul 2025 coffee exports were up +6.9% y/y to 1.05 MMT.
The USDA's Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) projected on June 25 that world coffee production in 2025/26 will increase by +2.5% y/y to a record 178.68 million bags, with a -1.7% decrease in arabica production to 97.022 million bags and a +7.9% increase in robusta production to 81.658 million bags. FAS forecasted that Brazil's 2025/26 coffee production will increase by +0.5% y/y to 65 million bags and that Vietnam's 2025/26 coffee output will rise by 6.9% y/y to a 4-year high of 31 million bags. FAS forecasts that 2025/26 ending stocks will climb by +4.9% to 22.819 million bags from 21.752 million bags in 2024/25. However, Volcafe is projecting a global 2025/26 arabica coffee deficit of -8.5 million bags, wider than the -5.5 million bag deficit for 2024/25 and the fifth consecutive year of deficits.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
