Tasmania's AFL club would be up to $5.9 million worse off per season if it played at the existing stadium in Hobart and not a new venue.
That's according to modelling contained in the club's submission to the planning process for a proposed 23,000-roofed stadium at Macquarie Point.
Construction of the stadium at the waterfront site is a condition of the Tasmania Devils being granted a licence for inclusion in the competition in 2028.
The Devils would be between $5.4 million and $5.9 million worse off per year if they played at Hobart's Ninja Stadium at suburban Bellerive and not the new venue.
"The club would face a perpetual competitive disadvantage that no amount of management excellence could overcome," the submission says.
The modelling is based on "conservative" estimates developed by the AFL and informed by industry benchmarks and revenue analysis.
The Devils would earn $1.2 million less annually in sponsorship and $1.8 million less in corporate hospitality, because of limited premium seating and event-hosting infrastructure.
Membership would be $1.3 million down, match receipts would be $200,000 lower and merchandise sales $100,000 less because of smaller crowds.
There would be "intangible" losses of $1.4 million.
Ninja Stadium, which hosts some North Melbourne fixtures, will be the Devils' home in their first season before the stadium at Macquarie Point is scheduled to be completed in 2029.
The club plans to play the majority of its home games in Hobart and the remainder at University of Tasmania Stadium in Launceston.
"The stadium will be a game-changer - not just for footy, but for Hobart and the whole state," Tasmania Devils CEO Brendon Gale said.
"The project needs scrutiny - that's fair and necessary. But we have to accept that without the stadium, the club won't happen."
The stadium must be approved by Tasmania's parliament, with a vote to be held mid-year after the government announced plans to fast-track the project.
The governing Liberals and Labor opposition support the stadium. It needs the support of two independents in the upper house to get across the line.
Premier Jeremy Rockliff this week delivered an ultimatum to upper house MPs, saying the team would die if they didn't vote the stadium through.
The government has cited tight timelines for wanting to supersede the current planning process with the fast-track legislation.
It says the stadium will cost $775 million, but a recent independent report said the figure would be almost $1 billion.
