Today in Campaign 2016
- So much for every Republican running away from Trump. House speaker Paul Ryan will campaign with the presidential nominee in his home district in Wisconsin on Saturday, according to a statement from his office. Rather hilariously – no, let’s go with quite hilariously – given Ryan’s chronic bobbling of the Trump question, the statement advises that “all questions related to Mr. Trump should be directed to the Trump campaign.”
- At the end of the first presidential debate last week, Donald Trump patted himself on the back for not bringing up some unnamed thing relating to the Clinton family, which pretty clearly was Bill Clinton’s infidelities. After the debate, Trump continued to pat himself on the back for not bringing up Clinton’s infidelities, which most political analysts agreed was not a fight that would end well for him. Now Trump has definitively declared – on Page Six of the New York Post – that he will NOT bring up “Bill Clinton’s past”:
“I want to win this election on my policies for the future, not on Bill Clinton’s past,” Trump told Page Six via email. “Jobs, trade, ending illegal immigration, veteran care, and strengthening our military is what I really want to be talking about.”
- Trump running mate Mike Pence this morning told CNN that Trump no longer supports a ban on Muslims entering the US but wants a ban on immigrants “from countries compromised by terrorism.”
- “We’re going to suspend immigration from countries compromised by terrorism,” Pence said. CNN’s Chris Cuomo does a good job of pushing him: “But governor that is a finessed position,” Cuomo said, pointing out that Pence strongly condemned Trump’s call for a Muslim ban back when he was supporting Ted Cruz. “You condemned those comments. Why do you not condemn them now?” Pence laughed, as if no questions could be sillier. “Well because it’s not Donald Trump’s position now.”
Donald Trump’s core supporters may back his views on curbing immigration – but they disagree with him over global trade and US involvement in Nato, an opinion poll has found.
Trump has made opposition to the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal between the US and Asia a central theme of his populist campaign, but more of his base favour it (49%) than oppose it (46%), according to the 2016 Chicago Council on Global Affairs survey.
In another surprising finding, despite Senator Bernie Sanders’ vocal criticism of the TPP during the Democratic primary, some 56% of his supporters back the agreement, as do 74% of Hillary Clinton’s.
The annual survey suggests a gap between the views of those who shout loudest during the presidential election and the more nuanced positions of many Democratic and Republican voters on the ground, most of whom want America to remain engaged with the world.
As expected, immigration does seem to be a vote winner for Trump, who has been accused of inciting hatred and violence. “Trump’s rhetoric on immigrants and refugees has most clearly struck a chord with his base,” notes the report, published on Thursday. “On each and every question concerning immigration, Trump’s core supporters are the least favorable.”
The final question at Donald Trump’s town hall: “What is one of the earliest memories you had as a child?” The question is followed by a “Go, Donald!” from its asker.
He answers this question by discussing the vacancy on the supreme court.
Apparently, despite being spoon-fed handpicked softballs by a sycophantic moderator in a venue packed exclusively with supporters chosen by his campaign, Trump wasn’t that interested in treating tonight like actual preparation for Sunday night’s debate.
Updated
Pete from Nashua wants to know about social security! Specifically, how Hillary Clinton will bankrupt the programs by extending citizenship to undocumented immigrants.
“When they want to do their jobs, and, it’s much more difficult, and who’s gonna come out and endorse Trump?” Trump begins, before meandering into a discussion about the war on drugs. “If I win, and if I become president - first get the nomination, that happened - then become president, I’m gonna promise the people of New Hampshire that we’re gonna stop this crap coming into your state.”
Voter registration in Florida will not be extended, despite the arrival of Hurricane Matthew:
Rick Scott will not extend reg deadline due to storm, he says at presser, via @MAlexJohnson: "Everybody has had plenty of time to register."
— Alex Seitz-Wald (@aseitzwald) October 6, 2016
Next question, this time from Bob Swanson: Can you assure the American people that you are going to clean house at the FBI, Justice Department, State Department and the FDA?
“One of my favorite questions,” the “moderator” declares.
“What’s happened to the FBI and to the Justice Department at the highest level, honestly I think it’s one of the saddest things that’s happened to this country,” Trump says.
Next question: How do you define the income range for “middle class”?
“The middle class has been forgotten in this country,” Trump says, before drifting into talking about China for a spell. “I will tell you, it’s such a great question, because our middle class has been treated so badly by our politicians - it’s been forgotten.”
Next question in New Hampshire: What message do you have for Latinos deceived by the biased media to vote for Hillary Clinton?
(Yes, this is seriously a question in Donald Trump’s debate prep.)
“People that are here legally, they don’t want people coming across the border illegally taking their jobs, taking their homes, taking whatever they want to take,” Trump says. “We’re gonna do fantastic with the Hispanics - I believe that.”
“Doing well!” the moderator says.
Donald Trump’s “moderator” in the town hall that his campaign insists is not debate prep allows the first question - after noting that there is a two-minute clock he can use or not use, at Trump’s discretion - which asks of Trump whether he will amp up his criticism of Hillary Clinton, after “holding back” in the first debate.
“I think for good reason, I think for good reason,” Trump said. “Let’s see what happens, I mean, let’s see what happens. I think we’re all better off if we can do that.”
Donald Trump begins his “town hall” in New Hampshire by pumping his poll numbers in South Carolina – where he’s only five points ahead.
Donald Trump speaks at 'town hall' in Sandown, New Hampshire
With a friendly moderator and a hand-picked crowd, Donald Trump hopes to prepare for Sunday night’s town-hall debate with Hillary Clinton tonight in New Hampshire. Watch it live here:
Donald Trump campaigns in Sandown, New Hampshire
Watch it live here:
That’s the wrong building.
Looking forward to a great future... pic.twitter.com/5i1EkvThym
— Evan McMullin (@Evan_McMullin) October 6, 2016
Evan McMullin to announce running mate
#NeverTrump spoiler candidate Evan McMullin, who joined the race for the White House in August, will announce the official selection of his running mate with only 33 days to go before the presidential election, according to Buzzfeed News.
The choice is another little-known Republican: Mindy Finn, a Republican consultant who has advised the Republican National Committee and founder of conservative women’s organization Empowered Women whose LinkedIn page describes her as “a media strategist, an early founder of the digital democracy movement, and specializes in brand marketing, issue advocacy and civic reform.”
McMullin is running as an independent conservative alternative to Trump, backed by some of the Republican nominee’s most determined rightwing opponents.
President Barack Obama is cutting short the sentences of 102 federal inmates as part of his ongoing push to grant clemency during his final months in office.
The latest round brings to 774 the number of sentences Obama has commuted, including 590 this year. The White House says it is more than the previous 11 presidents put together.
Almost all of those receiving commutations were convicted of drug-related offenses. Most are considered non-violent offenders, although some were convicted of firearms charges in connection with drug crimes.
Many of the recipients had been serving life sentences.
But Obama is not setting them all free right away. Many of those receiving commutations will see their sentences end in October 2018, almost two years into the next president’s term.
Update: Matt Drudge is now a Hurricane Matthew truther.
Hurricane Center has monopoly on data. No way of verifying claims. Nassau ground observations DID NOT match statements! 165mph gusts? WHERE?
— MATT DRUDGE (@DRUDGE) October 6, 2016
For the first time in the history of presidential debates, the American public has the opportunity to vote for some of the questions that will be asked during Sunday night’s presidential debate.
Any one of the top 30 questions voted on the Open Debate Coalition’s website will be up for consideration - and some of them are making major waves on social media:
Which ones do you think should be asked?
As Donald Trump’s campaign urges Floridians in Hurricane Matthew’s path to seek shelter, some of his supporters are apparently wondering whether the entire “strongest Florida storm in more than a century” thing is just a liberal conspiracy:
The deplorables are starting to wonder if govt has been lying to them about Hurricane Matthew intensity to make exaggerated point on climate
— MATT DRUDGE (@DRUDGE) October 6, 2016
PEAK TRUMP, asked about Yucca Mountain, read this whole thing: "And I will come very strongly one way or the other. I will have an opinion." pic.twitter.com/0K6H8XPFW0
— Sopan Deb (@SopanDeb) October 6, 2016
With 32 days remaining until the US election, Hillary Clinton’s campaign is touting its advantage over opponent Donald Trump in the early voting process that is already underway in pivotal battleground states.
“We are certain that more voters are going to cast ballots in this election than any other election in our nation’s history,” Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook told reporters on a Thursday conference call, while predicting a historic show of early voting as well.
Key swing states such as Nevada, North Carolina and Florida “could be decided before Election Day,” he added, stating the campaign’s objective to create an “insurmountable lead” by encouraging supporters to cast their ballots early.
Citing a 50% increase in vote-by-mail requests in Florida alone, compared with the same point in the race in 2012, Mook said the Clinton campaign was already succeeding in turning out its low propensity voters as opposed to Republicans.
Another significant development working in Democrats’ favor: An uptick in voter registration among African Americans and Hispanics. Vote-by-mail requests among Hispanics in Florida, for example, were up 77% since this juncture four years ago, Mook said.
The trend of more vote-by-mail requests extended to other demographics who have increasingly voted Democrat and might feel alienated by Trump, such as Asian Americans. Changes to strict voter ID laws in some battlegrounds, enacted by Republicans and found to disproportionately target minorities, would also help to boost Clinton’s campaign, Mook said.
“We think we have a superior turnout operation than Donald Trump does and early voting is the time when we can really put that to use and exploit that advantage that we have,” Mook said.
Republicans have historically dominated the process of voting early by mail. While Clinton’s campaign acknowledged Democrats were unlikely to overtake their opponents overall in early voting this cycle, they were optimistic about closing the gap.
Mook also said the campaign was requesting that officials in Florida extend its Oct. 11 voter registration deadline in light of Hurricane Matthew. The Category 4 deadly storm, which is making its up up the Florida coast, prompted its governor to declare a state of emergency.
Mook additionally previewed the next presidential debate, slated for Sunday evening in St. Louis, Missouri. While Clinton was near unanimously regarded as the winner of the first debate, Mook said the campaign did not anticipate Trump to be as undisciplined.
“We expect a more focused, more prepared Trump at this debate,” Mook said.
And while Trump has foreshadowed bringing up controversial issues such as Bill Clinton’s previous infidelities, Mook was less convinced. “We do not expect him to come with the personal and harsh attacks he’s been threatening,” he said.
Bernie Sanders blasted Donald Trump as a billionaire who exemplifies a “corrupt American political system” in the Vermont senator’s first visit to Michigan on the campaign trail for Hillary Clinton today.
At a local United Auto Workers chapter in Dearborn, the first of four campaign stops across the state, Sanders’ appearance on behalf of Clinton came several months after he eked out a shocking victory in Michigan’s primary election. But in his roughly 50-minute speech, Sanders stressed the importance of electing Clinton, declaring Trump’s policy agenda is “particularly dangerous and un-American”.
The Republican nominee, Sanders said, differs from any candidate in modern history for one reason: “The reason Trump’s campaign is particularly dangerous and un-American is that he has made the cornerstone of his campaign bigotry.”
He continued, “This campaign, what Trump is trying to do trying to win votes by dividing us up, by insulting the Latino brothers and sisters, by insulting the Muslim community, by every day hurling insults at women.”
Sanders said the revelation of Trump’s 1995 tax returns released last week accomplished more in one day “than I have in a year” to illustrate the “corrupt” American economy.
Donald Trump has issued a statement regarding the impending landfall of Hurricane Matthew:
Our thoughts and prayers go out to everyone in the path of Hurricane Matthew, namely in Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas, and we encourage everyone to listen to their Governors and local emergency officials urging the evacuations of at-risk coastal communities. These warnings are very, very serious – if your home is in the path of the hurricane and you are being advised to leave, you need to do so right now. Nothing is more important than the safety of your family.
I would also like to offer my thanks to the law enforcement, first responders and power crews making the necessary preparations for the storm and carrying out their plans to help our communities survive and recover in the aftermath.
I also want to extend my personal condolences to those families in Haiti who lost loved ones as this storm tore through their island. The news reports that over a hundred people are feared dead saddens us all, and the United States should offer our assistance to help our island neighbors.
Please stay safe.
Pence says Trump no longer wants a Muslim ban
Trump running mate Mike Pence this morning told CNN that Trump no longer supports a ban on Muslims entering the US but wants a ban on immigrants “from countries compromised by terrorism.”
Even before Tuesday’s debate, a large part of Pence’s job had become to describe Trump’s policies and views as less extreme than the candidate has described them (see the lengthy Sunday show footage of Pence taking questions about whether Trump still wants a “deportation force”).
“We’re going to suspend immigration from countries compromised by terrorism,” Pence says.
CNN’s Chris Cuomo does a good job of pushing him: “But governor that is a finessed position,” Cuomo says, pointing out that Pence strongly condemned Trump’s call for a Muslim ban back when he was supporting Ted Cruz.
“You condemned those comments. Why do you not condemn them now?”
Pence laughs, as if no questions could be sillier. “Well because it’s not Donald Trump’s position now.” Ha. Ha.
Why isn't Mike Pence condemning Trump's past call for a Muslim ban? "Because it's not Donald Trump's position now" https://t.co/9fAIpGXCd4
— New Day (@NewDay) October 6, 2016
The plan is still to ban immigration from Muslim-majority countries, which is based on religion. https://t.co/DQ4M1ZPrzW
— Sabrina Siddiqui (@SabrinaSiddiqui) October 6, 2016
Here is a mashup of Hillary Clinton and a bunch of other Democrats pronouncing “Nevada” correctly as Donald Trump, speaking to a Reno crowd last night, did not (see earlier):
Hey @realDonaldTrump,
— Tim Hogan (@timjhogan) October 6, 2016
We made this video to help you pronounce Nev-AD-a!https://t.co/T1hQzrqaZx
A debate Wednesday in the interesting – or not – Democrat-on-Democrat US senate race in California, pitting state attorney general Kamala Harris, who leads in polls, against US representative Loretta Sanchez culminated with congresswoman Sanchez dabbing.
To wit:
Today in 2016 election moments: US Senate candidate Rep. Loretta Sanchez dabbed after her closing statement in tonight's California debate pic.twitter.com/pZWIwiL9hm
— Max Tani (@maxwelltani) October 6, 2016
@seungminkim this: https://t.co/Ry3PTr8DKu
— Michael Schwab (@michaelschwab13) October 6, 2016
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Updated
The man who ran Trump tower
Here’s an eye-opening Associated Press report: Donald Trump once hired a convicted felon – a man who had tried to help a triple murderer break out of prison – to run Trump tower.
Here’s the top of the report:
Six years after George Gjieli left federal prison, where he’d been sent for trying to break out a triple murderer, Donald Trump gave him a job running Trump Tower, where the billionaire businessman lived and worked.
For a decade, the Albanian immigrant, whom federal prosecutors had described as having “utter disdain for the laws of our country,” was the live-in residential superintendent of Trump’s most prized Manhattan high-rise. Meanwhile, he was accused in court papers of coordinating a cash-for-jobs racket inside the building, an Associated Press review has found.
Trump’s decision to entrust responsibility of his namesake Fifth Avenue skyscraper to Gjieli adds to a growing public accounting of men with questionable backgrounds whom Trump has hired or partnered with. The AP and others have reported they include a Mafia-linked government informant whom Trump named as a senior adviser and a convicted cocaine dealer whom Trump supported in a letter to a federal judge.
Gjieli, who said Trump wrote him a recommendation letter when he left Trump Tower in 2001, denied taking kickbacks including cash in envelopes delivered to his 29th floor office. In an interview, he called the allegations “bulls-t,” likely made by Romanian building workers harboring generations-old European ethnic rivalries.
The AP uncovered no evidence that Trump knew of money being paid for jobs. His presidential campaign spokeswoman, Hope Hicks, declined to address whether Trump ever conducted a background check before hiring Gjieli. She said Trump wasn’t familiar with the kickback allegations.
“Mr. Trump’s management style has led to the creation of one of the great private companies anywhere in the world,” she said.
Trump himself has said he cares more about his supervisors’ ability to get things done than their tactics or pasts, writing approvingly in his best-selling “Art of the Deal” about a “con man” project manager who likely stole $50,000 annually from the company, including from his secretaries’ funeral fund used to buy flowers.“Even so, I was probably getting a bargain,” Trump wrote, saying the con man it was not Gjieli was a good manager.
Read the full piece here.
In an unusual development, Trump fliers appearing in mailboxes in Iowa, Colorado and Pennsylvania are listed as paid for by the New York state Republican party. It could indicate that polling in New York has convinced the local GOP that mailing these in-state would be a waste.
Or maybe the phenomenon represents a jury-rigged coordination among the state parties or some other Trumpian disorganized logic.
Trump campaign mail hitting Iowa mailboxes. Paid for by New York State GOP pic.twitter.com/2QJ2onwgcL
— Jason Noble (@jasonnobleDMR) October 5, 2016
New Trump flier hitting CO mailboxes. Check out who paid for it. #copolitics pic.twitter.com/nLfTw2JQeu
— John Frank (@ByJohnFrank) October 6, 2016
(h/t @bencjacobs)
Trump works to hold Nevada
In front of an energetic crowd at the Reno-Sparks convention center in Reno, Nevada, Trump on Wednesday sang a symphony composed largely of old favorites from his songbook: Nafta took up a large part of his speech, with the debates – either his last week or his running mate’s on Tuesday – barely mentioned.
Pence, who was widely considered to have bested Kaine in the debate, merited only the barest of nods. “The problems we face as a country are immense – and, by the way, didn’t Mike Pence do a great job?” The line did not get much of a cheer, and he did not mention his running mate again.
If Trump has suffered in national polling since his debate with Clinton last week, his supporters did not seem to mind. The atmosphere in Reno was almost festive, with the crowd engaging in Trump’s call-and-responses with gusto. “What’s my economic – my economic,” Trump said, pretending to forget, and the crowd shouted back: “Jobs! Jobs!”
Only when Trump asked if there were any Latinos in the room was the Republican candidate met with near-silence. Even the booing of the media – a ritual at Trump rallies – seemed milder and more good-natured than usual.
Read the full piece here:
Can we please get these? pic.twitter.com/eNhhJq8I1a
— Michelle White (@MickyWhiteNV) October 6, 2016
Updated
Anywhere but Washington: Maine edition
As Hillary Clinton makes history while openly campaigning for gun law reform, the NRA faces possible defeat in a Maine referendum. Paul Lewis and Tom Silverstone travel to Maine, where a push for universal background checks is being bankrolled by billionaire Michael Bloomberg:
Trump tells Page Six he won't bring up Bill at second debate
At the end of the first presidential debate last week, Donald Trump patted himself on the back for not bringing up some unnamed thing relating to the Clinton family, which pretty clearly was Bill Clinton’s infidelities.
After the debate, Trump continued to pat himself on the back for not bringing up Clinton’s infidelities, which most political analysts agreed was not a fight that would end well for him.
Now Trump has definitively declared – on Page Six of the New York Post – that he will NOT bring up “Bill Clinton’s past”:
“I want to win this election on my policies for the future, not on Bill Clinton’s past,” Trump told Page Six via email. “Jobs, trade, ending illegal immigration, veteran care, and strengthening our military is what I really want to be talking about.”
Battleground states: North Carolina
North Carolina has been in the eye of many storms this year. The state of emergency declared by Governor Pat McCrory ahead of the expected arrival of Hurricane Matthew this weekend follows similar civil measures in September when the police killing of a black man set off a wave of angry protests on the streets of the state’s largest city, Charlotte.
Few of the tempests to sweep by in 2016 have defined the national mood quite as much, though, as the political maelstrom battering this state. A vital battleground in the presidential election, North Carolina could determine whether Donald Trump manages to assemble enough angry white voters to make it all the way to the White House. A “bathroom ban” preventing transgender students from using toilets not matching the gender on their birth certificates has reopened the wounds of America’s culture wars, leading to a boycott by college sport authorities and protests from leading employers such as Apple, American Airlines and Bank of America.
But the conservative wave that allowed Republicans to take control of all layers of local government in the state is now threatening to drown the party itself. The fervour stoked by battles over gay rights, voter registration laws, and immigration is putting off many moderates and could yet see Democrats win presidential, Senate and gubernatorial races here in November.
What has made such controversies so shocking to many outsiders is that the Tar Heel state had long since stopped conforming to any easy stereotypes of a politically conservative southern backwater. The recent protests against the killing of Keith Lamont Scott in Charlotte took place among gleaming downtown high-rises of the New South – race riots shattering the calm of what otherwise appears a diverse and progressive boomtown at the heart of one of America’s major transport and financial hubs.
Pride in North Carolina’s modern and open economy is still visible, despite the high-profile battles over sexual and racial equality. Drive into the state from the north, and road signs quickly herald its repeated ability to win Nobel prizes, celebrating last year’s award of the chemistry prize to a Turkish American biochemist, Aziz Sancar, based at the University of North Carolina (UNC) in Chapel Hill. He proudly spoke of being a US Muslim at his acceptance speech andtold a Turkish newspaper that Trump should not be allowed to obscure America’s multicultural progress in the eyes of the world.
'How Howard Stern owned Donald Trump'
Here’s a perceptive piece by Virginia Heffernan in Politico, How Howard Stern Owned Donald Trump.
It was on shock-jock Stern’s radio show that Trump in 2002 said he supported the Iraq war, discussed the attractiveness of 12-year-old Paris Hilton and made some of his most nakedly sexist and craven pronouncements.
Heffernan points out that Trump was really broke in the mid-1990s, perhaps somewhat desperate, and hungry for attention and celebrity. And then Stern used him, she writes:
This much-craved publicity, of course, came at price: Stern has long had a devilish talent for lulling guests into a false sense of security—and then luring them into rhetorical traps. He casts his guests in a burlesque he scripts for them, and cattle-prods them into playing their parts, first fawning over them until they feel like celebrities, then bringing down the hammer of humiliation. He’s a diabolically domineering scene partner. No interviewer has ever been as adroit with treacherous leading questions in the vein of “When did you stop beating your wife?” Stern, in other words, gets people to publicly embrace their worst selves—and say things they live to regret.
That’s exactly what happened with Trump. Today, as the Republican nominee, he may fashion himself as a boss and a master of the universe. But what comes across in old tapes of the show, resurfaced recently by BuzzFeed and other outlets, is that Trump, like many of Stern’s guests, was often the one being played. By nailing him as a buffoon and then—unkindest cut—forcing him to kiss the Howard Stern ring, Stern and his co-anchor, Robin Quivers, created a series of broadcasts that today showcase not just Trump’s misogyny but his ready submission to sharper minds.
Read the full piece here.
Paul Ryan to campaign with Donald Trump
So much for every Republican running away from Trump. House speaker Paul Ryan will campaign with the presidential nominee in his home district in Wisconsin on Saturday, according to a statement from his office.
Rather hilariously – no, let’s go with quite hilariously – given Ryan’s chronic bobbling of the Trump question, the statement advises that “all questions related to Mr. Trump should be directed to the Trump campaign.”
For some reason it’s difficult to find a photo of Paul Ryan and Donald Trump together. Here’s a composite:
Senator Ted Cruz, who courageously refused to endorse Donald Trump onstage at the Republican national convention, only to be called to heel after it became clear that the non-endorsement was hurting him more than Trump – here Cruz phone banks under a bunch of Trump signs. Does this really humiliate Ted Cruz, though? Does anything...
The final humiliation pic.twitter.com/NvSQGKRAUL
— Liam Donovan (@LPDonovan) October 6, 2016
State polls look good for Clinton
We went looking for good news for Trump in the latest state polls. Instead we found a bunch of strong polls for Clinton. Every arrow seems to point in one direction: Clinton is gaining strength. Note that most of the following state snapshots represent one poll and that you should always consult the averages before acquitting yourself of an opinion about the state of the race.
Florida:
The UNF poll--a good one--shows Clinton+3 in Florida two-way, +7 in the two-way https://t.co/CZJV3jpC8z
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) October 6, 2016
North Carolina:
North Carolina Is becoming a problem for Trump: https://t.co/RAHINo46OZ pic.twitter.com/7ZSKoUzeGi
— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) October 6, 2016
Michigan:
Big lead for clinton in latest Freep poll: https://t.co/mAd9uQzCG3 via @freep
— Kathy Gray (@michpoligal) October 6, 2016
Arizona:
TPM Electoral Scoreboard Moves to Clinton 323, Trump 186 as Arizona Moves from Trump to Toss Up https://t.co/TqnIwFS0Je via @TPM
— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) October 6, 2016
Iowa:
Hey, Iowa back in (light) blue on @FiveThirtyEight predictor pic.twitter.com/LshT7ojbdW
— Iowa Starting Line (@IAStartingLine) October 6, 2016
If the election result matched current RCP averages: Clinton would win, 323 to 215. https://t.co/BCmurahs0D
— EV Tracker (@ev_tracker) October 6, 2016
Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway is first a pollster, and she has an argument to make: the pollsters are missing Trump supporters, who don’t want to tell anyone, much less strangers asking a bunch of nosy questions, about their political opinions. The shy Tory effect.
Could be?
Will Trump's poll-shy fans surprise elites? @CNN https://t.co/UR7wou2TlS
— Kellyanne Conway (@KellyannePolls) October 6, 2016
Updated
Trump loosens Republican grip on senate
Uh-oh. A month before the election, incumbent Republican senator Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire, who is up for reelection, has had to make an “I’m not perfect” ad:
In a debate on Monday night against challenger Maggie Hassan, the Democratic governor, Ayotte was asked whether Donald Trump would be a good role model for children.
“Absolutely,” she replied. Ayotte, a centrist Republican, has been trying to have Trump both ways all year, saying she would vote for him but not endorse him.
Quickly after the debate, Ayotte sought to walk back her statement about Trump, saying that she had misspoken.
But Hassan is out this morning with an ad seeking to pin her more closely to the top of the ticket:
A HuffPost Pollster average of polls in the senate race has it tied:
An Ayotte loss would be a significant blow to Republican efforts to hold the senate. The Democrats need to flip four seats – and for Clinton to win the presidency – to gain control of the senate. (If the Democrats get four seats, a 50-50 tie would be established, with straight party-line votes thereafter being resolved by the vice president, whoever he may end up being.)
The Democrats look very likely to flip in Illinois and Wisconsin. But they may lose the Nevada seat of retiring minority leader Harry Reid. So they may need at least three more wins from among the five states of Indiana, North Carolina, Missouri, Pennsylvania or New Hampshire. To see a map with further analysis, pay a visit to Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
Republicans are worried that Trump is screwing up their chances of holding onto Congress, report Jonathan Martin and Alexander Burns today in the New York Times:
Donald J. Trump’s support has plunged across the swing-state map over the last 10 days, wiping out his political recovery from September and threatening to undo weeks of Republican gains in the battle for control of Congress. [...]
Mr. Trump has already slipped perceptibly in public polls, trailing widely this week in Pennsylvania and by smaller margins in Florida and North Carolina — three states he cannot afford to lose. But private polling by both parties shows an even more precipitous drop, especially among independent voters, moderate Republicans and women, according to a dozen strategists from both parties who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the data was confidential.
Read the full piece here.
Update:
New: 30 former GOP members of Congress come out against Trump, saying they won't vote for him. pic.twitter.com/7H3Nyi5pDI
— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) October 6, 2016
Updated
Here’s New York Daily News editorial cartoonist Bill Bramhall on the veep debate:
Here's today's @billbramhall cartoon: https://t.co/6jDB4vdsnd pic.twitter.com/x1iVC8aCTJ
— Josh Greenman (@joshgreenman) October 6, 2016
We really don’t want to know any more about this apparent meeting between comedienne Rosie O’Donnell and the daughter of a man with whom she is engaged in an ongoing and epic flame war – “orange anus,” she called him last month – except that it happened and they appear to have gotten along just fine. #healing #bless
@IvankaTrump in a city of 8 million - we meet face 2 face - i thank u 4 listening - mother 2 mother - on this new years week - my best 2 u
— Rosie (@Rosie) October 6, 2016
(thx @fahima_haque)
How charming is this guy? Trump told Nevada voters last night to please cling to life until Election Day.
“I don’t care how sick you are,” he said, “hang on till November 8th, get out and vote and then, all we’re going to say is, we love you and we’ll remember you always.”
The crowd is cracking up. But this is not only in questionable taste – it’s misleading. Dying voters in Nevada, where a large 69% majority of ballots were cast early in 2012, only have to make it until the opening of early voting on 22 October to make their support for Trump known before dying.
The Trump campaign, which isn’t very good at get-out-the-vote, seems rarely to brief the candidate on useful information like this that he might share with voters.
And yes, if you vote early and then die before election day, your vote still counts. America.
Then Trump spots an Elvis impersonator. Most Las Vegas rally ever.
Hello and welcome to our live-wire coverage of the 2016 race for the White House. It’s 6 October, Barack Obama’s approval rating has touched a new second-term high of 55%, according to a CNN/ORC poll, and Hillary Clinton has a growing national lead of at least four points over Donald Trump in one, two, three, four respected polling averages.
Which makes this new poll from Fairleigh Dickinson University /PublicMind an outlier:
National poll of likely voters: Clinton 50%, Trump 40% pic.twitter.com/u8LTxz2Vrn
— Morning Joe (@Morning_Joe) October 6, 2016
Clinton supporters concerned that she might quit while she’s ahead might take heart in the facts that she continues to raise money, appear with down-ticket candidates at rallies across the country and produce new campaign ads, like two out this morning.
Here’s one directed by Lee Daniels (Monster’s Ball, Precious, The Butler, Empire):
Lee Daniels direct new Clinton ad, "What Will You Say", featuring African American stars talking about what's at stake in this election: pic.twitter.com/ODniz2O8gs
— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) October 6, 2016
Trump says ‘Nevada’ wrong
Like daughter, like father. Donald Trump lectured a crowd in Reno, Nevada – a state he needs to win – last night about how to pronounce “Nevada”. But he said it wrong, it’s “Nevada” like a baby’s “dada” not a Tzara’s Dada. They take this very seriously in Nevada.
Here’s Trump spouting nonsense:
Trump explains how to pronounce Nevada - the wrong way. #inners https://t.co/5ZlOEMEMzv
— All In w/Chris Hayes (@allinwithchris) October 6, 2016
Harry Reid https://t.co/kawy6zSpUv pic.twitter.com/NKhUG0iSZ3
— Farhad Manjoo (@fmanjoo) October 6, 2016
Trump supporters shout down Holocaust denier
Attendees at a Trump rally grew agitated that the media was interviewing the one guy seeking a platform for his theories about the Holocaust:
"You're not speaking the truth for us!" A Trump supporter shouts down alt-right man in Reno. pic.twitter.com/67Y5O1wDzI
— Ali Vitali (@alivitali) October 6, 2016
Here’s another Clinton ad out this morning, made from home movie footage:
Top Fox talent spat
This is more than just a public fight between top on-air talent at a national news network; this is a civil war inside the most powerful brand in “conservative” news, coming right after the network’s head was cut off, as Fox founder Roger Ailes succumbed to a sexual harassment scandal, but not before the network helped elevate a historically bad, in the judgment of many top Republicans, presidential nominee.
@megynkelly u should be mad at @HillaryClinton Clearly you support her. And @realDonaldTrump did talk to u. https://t.co/vsQiNMgHut
— Sean Hannity (@seanhannity) October 6, 2016
This is going to hit Florida starting as soon as tonight:
Hurricane #Matthew is expected to intensify later tonight and Thursday: https://t.co/MdjzkqMQtl #scwx #gawx pic.twitter.com/Bwr7sfz4gJ
— NWS Charleston, SC (@NWSCharlestonSC) October 6, 2016
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