China’s fertility rate dropped to an estimated record low of 1.09 in 2022, the lowest of any country with a population over 100 million, according to government data.
Demographers from the China Population and Development Research Centre, a Chinese government research institution, released data indicating that last year’s fertility rate fell to 1.09 from 1.15 in 2021, below Japan’s rate for the same time period and only slightly higher than South Korea’s, which was estimated to be 0.8.
Separately, Hong Kong’s Family Planning Association has said the number of couples without children in the Chinese territory has reached “alarming” levels. A study published on Tuesday found that the share of couples without children more than doubled between 2017 and 2022, from 20.6% to 43.2%.
But provisional government figures released this week showed that Hong Kong’s population increased by 2.1% in the 12 months to June, the first significant rise since a decline that began in 2020 after stringent Covid-19 control measures and the crackdown on the pro-democracy movement caused large numbers of people to emigrate.
The government has forecast that Hong Kong’s population will continue to increase but that growth will come from immigration rather than new births, with the fertility rate expected to remain low.
Last year, China’s population shrank for the first time in six decades, falling by 850,000 to 1.41 billion. It is predicted to fall below 1 billion before the end of the century. In April this year, India’s population hit an estimated 1.43 billion, overtaking China as the world’s most populous country.
China’s shrinking and ageing population is a significant concern for policymakers. Between 2019 and 2022, the working age population contracted by more than 40 million. At this year’s annual legislative meetings in March, several delegates offered proposals for boosting the low birthrate, such as tax breaks, allowing children born to unmarried parents to be legally registered and scrapping the three-child limit.
In 2016, China abandoned the one-child policy that had been in place since 1979. It now allows couples to have up to three children. Some provinces have gone further in loosening restrictions. In January, Sichuan, a province of more than 80 million people, scrapped all restrictions on registering births and removed the cap on the number of babies per parent. Some provinces offer marriage leave of up to 30 days for newlyweds.
But none of these measures have succeeded in boosting the birthrate. Young people, particularly women, are increasingly putting off marriage and childbirth and say that raising a child is too expensive. Youth unemployment hit a record high of 21.3% in June and on Tuesday China’s National Bureau of Statistics said it would stop releasing age-specific data, prompting mockery online.
Experts say that financial and administrative incentives will have little effect when the wider economic picture is gloomy, and women still face discrimination at work for being mothers.
A recent survey of 2,459 students by researchers at Zhejiang Sci-Tech University found that 30% “have a negative attitude towards marriage”. The study found many students no longer considered marriage to be inevitable and did not see it as the only way to have children. Students also think that “it is difficult to reconcile the contradiction between childbirth and a career”, according to a report in Jiemian News.
On Weibo, discussion of the topic seemed to be partially restricted. One influencer account with more than 4.3 million followers wrote: “Why is the birthrate falling? Because something is missing, that is ‘hope’. When it is difficult to get rich through hard work, and knowledge can hardly change one’s destiny, most people spend half their lives on a pile of reinforced concrete and their lives are worse than dogs. They don’t want to let the next generation suffer.”
