Republicans won Tennessee's hotly watched special U.S. House election Tuesday, but the single-digit margin in a conservative Nashville-area district was the party's latest warning sign ahead of next year's midterms.
Driving the news: In a district President Trump won by 22 points last year, Trump-backed Republican Matt Van Epps defeated progressive Democrat Aftyn Behn by just under 9 points, 54% to 45%. The result created an unusual mixed bag of feelings on both sides:
- Republicans cheered the victory while fretting over the latest evidence that voters are cooling on Trump's agenda and his handling of the economy.
- Democrats were encouraged by what the results could mean in the 2026 midterms for candidates in less conservative districts now represented by Republicans — but wondered whether they could've come closer to winning by running a more moderate Democrat.
Four takeaways from Tuesday's election:
- A costly GOP win: Van Epps' victory pushes the Republican majority in the House to 220–214, but required a multimillion-dollar ad campaign to keep the seat former Rep. Mark Green (R) vacated last summer.
- For Republicans, the result echoed the GOP's underperformance in Florida's special House elections earlier this year and came a month after blowouts in New Jersey's and Virginia's races for governor.
2. Hope — and regret — for progressives. Behn, who campaigned with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), was hit with millions of dollars' worth of attack ads highlighting past comments like calling herself "radical" and boasting about "bullying the ICE vehicles."
- The GOP's bet that those controversial remarks would activate some of the district's MAGA base in an off-year election was proven right.
- On Tuesday, some moderate Democrats privately and publicly argued a more centrist candidate might have won, or come closer to it, reflecting the party's debate over whether to nominate "electable" moderates or progressives who energize young voters.
3. The "Affordability" light keeps flashing red.
- Taxation was the most-mentioned topic in ads run by both sides, according to data compiled by the ad-tracking firm AdImpact.
- Behn made affordability the centerpiece of her campaign like the winning Democratic candidates last month for New Jersey and Virginia governor and New York City mayor.
As polls have shown Americans increasingly worried about inflation and affordability, Trump has begun talking more about affordability — begrudgingly.
- He's floated ideas such as handing out $2,000 tariff rebate checks and creating 50-year mortgages — even as he's downplayed worries about prices.
- On Tuesday his frustration was evident as he called concerns about affordability "a Democrat scam" and said his administration had "stopped inflation in its tracks."
4. Trump's GOP is hyper-focused on 2026.
- The president and his political operation went all-in for Van Epps with telerallies and the Trump-aligned MAGA Inc. super PAC spending more than $1.5 million.
- Trump's involvement highlights one of his top priorities for the next 11 months: Maintaining the GOP's tenuous House majority — and with it his control of Congress.
- Trump — who faces the threat of impeachment if Democrats take control of the House next year — is backing redistricting in red states to create more GOP-friendly districts, building a billion-dollar political war chest, and backing loyalists in GOP primaries.
