Already through
With seven wins from seven, Arsenal have a perfect record in the league phase. Only Bayern Munich and Inter have found the net against Mikel Arteta’s team, who dismissed Atlético Madrid 4-0 in October. The bottom side, Kairat, visit the Emirates Stadium on the final night, with Arsenal needing a draw to confirm top spot and, theoretically, the most favourable last-16 draw.
Bayern Munich are the only other team who have a shot at finishing top, having secured their top-eight place last week with a 2-0 win against Union Saint-Gilloise. Harry Kane and co need to beat PSV in Eindhoven and hope Arsenal lose to Kairat in a way that leads to a five-goal swing.
In the hunt for a top-eight place
Here it gets tricky. Technically any team down to Galatasaray and Qarabag on 10 points can finish in the top eight but goal difference and the fact that some of the teams above them are playing each other makes this highly improbable.
Real Madrid, now led by Álvaro Arbeloa, gave their goal difference a massive boost with a 6-1 thumping of Monaco last week. Two points clear of ninth place, they take on a familiar face in José Mourinho on Wednesday: a win away at Benfica would confirm a spot in the last 16 and a draw would almost certainly be enough too. Liverpool are another team on 15 points and a win at home to Qarabag would take them through. Given their lesser goal difference, hampered by a 4-1 home defeat to PSV in November, a draw may not be enough.
Tottenham have not allowed their stuttering domestic form to affect their performance in Europe. After beating 10-man Dortmund last week to move on to 14 points, Thomas Frank’s side have their fate in their own hands – a win at already-out Frankfurt would mean automatic qualification for the last 16. A draw or defeat and things would start to get sticky, with eight teams a point behind them.
All Wednesday 8pm (GMT)
Ajax v Olympiakos, Arsenal v Kairat Almaty, Athletic Bilbao v Sporting, Atlético Madrid v Bodø/Glimt, Barcelona v Copenhagen, Bayer Leverkusen v Villarreal, Benfica v Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund v Inter, Club Brugge v Marseille, Eintracht Frankfurt v Tottenham, Liverpool v Qarabag, Manchester City v Galatasaray, Monaco v Juventus, Napoli v Chelsea, PSV v Bayern Munich, Pafos v Slavia Prague, Paris Saint-Germain v Newcastle, Union Saint-Gilloise v Atalanta
Then we have a bunch of teams on 13 points, from sixth to 13th. Perhaps the standout fixture of the final round is between Paris Saint-Germain and Newcastle at the Parc des Princes. After their controversial last meeting in Paris two seasons ago, where a last-minute Kylian Mbappé penalty dented Newcastle’s hopes of progression from the group stage, this will have a similar high-stakes feel. Given both teams’ healthy goal difference, the winners should secure automatic qualification, but a draw would put both in danger of falling out of the top eight. The losers would stay on 13 points and be easy pickings for the six teams directly below them.
After edging past Pafos last week, Chelsea hold the final top-eight place but face a difficult trip to Antonio Conte’s Napoli, despite the Italian champions’ injury problems. A win in Naples should put Liam Rosenior’s side through to the last 16 but it may come down to goal difference. A draw or a defeat and, again, given the number of teams on 13 points, Chelsea would likely be condemned to the playoffs.
Goal difference will no doubt come into play for the five teams holding places nine to 13 before the final round. Barcelona and Sporting, on +5, will be the first in line should any of the teams above them drop points – PSG and Newcastle will also take points off each other. Barcelona are at home to Copenhagen, while Sporting are at Athletic Bilbao – with the caveat that both of those opponents will be vying for a playoff spot.
Manchester City, on +4 goal difference, will have a good shot at breaking into the top eight if they beat Galatasaray at home, although last week’s humbling 3-1 loss at Bodø/Glimt show they are susceptible to a shock result. Atlético Madrid have +3 goal difference after last week’s disappointing 1-1 draw with Galatasaray and host a buoyant Bodø – who can still qualify for the playoffs – realistically needing a win to give themselves a chance of the top eight. Atalanta, on +1 goal difference, are the final team on 13 points. Last week’s 3-2 home defeat to Athletic was damaging to their hopes of finishing in the top eight and only a win at Union would do now.
There are two teams on 12 points: Juventus and last season’s beaten finalists, Inter, who both have an outside chance of automatic qualification. Luciano Spalletti’s Juve go to Monaco needing a win and hoping multiple teams above them drop points. Inter will be up against a much more hostile atmosphere in their visit to Dortmund, who mathematically can still finish in the top eight. Even if results do not go their way in terms of a top-eight finish, any points and places gained will contribute to a more favourable playoff draw.
In the mix for the playoffs
There are 16 places at stake in the playoffs, from ninth to 24th, and every team down to Ajax in 32nd are mathematically capable of at least qualifying for them.
Last season, in the only final league phase table to date, clubs needed 16 points to make the top eight and 11 points (and -6 goal difference) to finish 24th. Dortmund (on 11 points and +4 goal difference), Galatasaray and Qarabag could make the top eight but could also fall out of the top 24. There are 10 teams capable of usurping the German side (although it would need a improbable run of results and goal swing) with eight places below them.
Everyone below Dortmund is at risk of not qualifying for the playoffs. Galatasaray’s results in the Champions League have oscillated wildly. They opened their campaign with a 5-1 loss at Eintracht Frankfurt (who are 33rd of 36) but also beat Liverpool and thrashed Ajax 3-0 in Amsterdam. Gala will be wary of defeat at Manchester City on Wednesday, but also conscious that if they lose, they must not lose heavily.
Qarabag have been brilliant in their debut Champions League season and have a real chance of reaching the playoffs but face a trip to Liverpool. The Azerbaijani team have 10 points and that is probably enough to make the top 24 but goal difference could be crucial and Qarabag will want to avoid a hiding at Anfield.
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 7 | 18 | 21 |
| 2 | Bayern Munich | 7 | 13 | 18 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 7 | 11 | 15 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 7 | 6 | 15 |
| 5 | Tottenham Hotspur | 7 | 8 | 14 |
| 6 | PSG | 7 | 10 | 13 |
| 7 | Newcastle | 7 | 10 | 13 |
| 8 | Chelsea | 7 | 6 | 13 |
| 9 | Barcelona | 7 | 5 | 13 |
| 10 | Sporting | 7 | 5 | 13 |
| 11 | Man City | 7 | 4 | 13 |
| 12 | Atletico Madrid | 7 | 3 | 13 |
| 13 | Atalanta | 7 | 1 | 13 |
| 14 | Inter Milan | 7 | 6 | 12 |
| 15 | Juventus | 7 | 4 | 12 |
| 16 | Borussia Dortmund | 7 | 4 | 11 |
| 17 | Galatasaray | 7 | 0 | 10 |
| 18 | Qarabag FK | 7 | -2 | 10 |
| 19 | Marseille | 7 | 0 | 9 |
| 20 | Bayer Leverkusen | 7 | -4 | 9 |
| 21 | Monaco | 7 | -6 | 9 |
| 22 | PSV | 7 | 1 | 8 |
| 23 | Athletic Bilbao | 7 | -4 | 8 |
| 24 | Olympiacos | 7 | -5 | 8 |
| 25 | Napoli | 7 | -5 | 8 |
| 26 | Copenhagen | 7 | -6 | 8 |
| 27 | Club Brugge | 7 | -5 | 7 |
| 28 | Bodo/Glimt | 7 | -2 | 6 |
| 29 | Benfica | 7 | -4 | 6 |
| 30 | AE Pafos | 7 | -6 | 6 |
| 31 | Union Saint Gilloise | 7 | -10 | 6 |
| 32 | Ajax | 7 | -12 | 6 |
| 33 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 7 | -9 | 4 |
| 34 | Slavia Prague | 7 | -11 | 3 |
| 35 | Villarreal | 7 | -10 | 1 |
| 36 | FC Kairat | 7 | -14 | 1 |
Marseille know all too well how strong Liverpool can be in this competition after a 3-0 defeat last week. Roberto De Zerbi’s side are weakened with Benjamin Pavard suspended and the new loan signing Ethan Nwaneri is not available to play in the Champions League until the knockout phase, having featured for Arsenal in this competition this season. A draw would be enough for Marseille, on zero goal difference and nine points, as long as six out of Bayer Leverkusen, Monaco, PSV, Athletic, Olympiakos, Napoli and Copenhagen fail to win. Leverkusen and Monaco are also on nine points but owing to their poor goal difference, they may have to do better than a draw against their respective opponents – Villarreal and Juventus – to make sure of the playoffs.
Just below, PSV Eindhoven are precariously placed in 22nd but have a positive goal difference. No other side up to Dortmund in 16th can say the same. A final home tie against Bayern is not ideal, although PSV will hope the already-qualified Bundesliga side will rest their biggest stars. PSV are one of five teams on eight points (Athletic, Olympiakos, Napoli and Copenhagen – the last of those in 26th). Even nine points could be enough but it depends on goal difference and the results for teams below.
With Club Brugge, 27th and the only side on seven points, we have finally entered the realm where only a win would raise hope of making the top 24. Even if the Belgian side beat Marseille, they require four of Copenhagen, Napoli, Olympiakos, Athletic, PSV, Monaco and Leverkusen not to win and Qarabag and Galatasaray to lose.
The five remaining teams mathematically able to make the playoffs are all on six points: Bodø, Benfica, Pafos, Union and Ajax. The last two need something of a miracle, given the goal difference for both Union Saint-Gilloise and Ajax is negative into double digits. Both have relatively kind home ties against Olympiakos and Atalanta respectively, though: stranger things have happened. Pafos, with the 38-year-old David Luiz in their ranks, will surely give it a right go against already eliminated Slavia Prague but asking Bodø/Glimt and Benfica to beat respective opponents Atlético and Real Madrid is a tough ask.
Already eliminated
That 5-1 win for Eintracht Frankfurt over Galatasaray in the opening round proved to be false dawn for the German side, whose only other decent result was a goalless draw at Napoli. Slavia Prague may be out but the Czech side will be targeting an away win at Pafos regardless. It is not just pride at stake: each team receive €2.1m per win and €700k per draw, while €700k is also awarded for each placing. So plenty still to play for: Slavia in 34th could finish as high as 28th. Villarreal are fourth in La Liga and on course to qualify for next season’s Champions League but they have been a shambles in this year’s competition. Bottom side Kairat beat Celtic in qualifying to reach the league/group phase for the first time but have been outclassed in all but one of their games. A trip to Arsenal will at least be memorable for the Kazakh side.
