Rafal Trzaskowski from the governing, centrist party Civic Coalition (KO) has won the first round of Poland’s presidential election, but a slim lead suggests next month’s run-off against his nationalist rival will be tight.
Trzaskowski, the liberal mayor of the capital, Warsaw, took 31.36 percent of the vote, the electoral commission said on Monday, with all ballots counted. Karol Nawrocki, the candidate backed by the conservative, populist Law and Justice (PiS) party, finished the race on 29.54 percent.
While the result of Sunday’s vote settles some nerves by ousting far-right challengers, it sets up a close battle in the second round, which will run on June 1, to determine if Poland remains on a pro-European path or leans towards the populist trend reinvigorated by United States President Donald Trump’s return to power.
“We are going for victory. I said that it would be close, and it is close,” Trzaskowski told supporters. “There is a lot, a lot, of work ahead of us, and we need determination.”
Nawrocki also struck a defiant tone: “We must win these elections to prevent one political camp’s monopoly of power.”
Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on social media that the next two weeks would decide the future of Poland.
The Polish president has the power to veto laws, and the outgoing incumbent, Andrzej Duda, has blocked many of Tusk’s efforts to reform a system built by his PiS predecessor.
A Trzaskowski victory in the second round could enable Tusk’s government to implement an agenda that includes rolling back judicial changes introduced by PiS that critics say have undermined the independence of the courts.
Tusk and Trzaskowski have pledged to cement Poland’s role as a key player at the heart of Europe in contrast with PiS, which was frequently at odds with Brussels over rule-of-law concerns.
However, if Nawrocki wins, the impasse that has existed since Tusk became prime minister in 2023 will continue.
The two candidates started preparing for the second round early on Monday, with Trzaskowski meeting voters in Warsaw and Nawrocki in Gdansk.
Much of the campaigning ahead of the vote revolved around foreign policy at a time of heightened security concerns in Poland, a key member of NATO and the European Union bordering war-torn Ukraine, and fears that the US commitment to European security could be wavering in the Trump era.
Social issues have also been a vital theme on the campaign trail, with Nawrocki framing himself as a guardian of conservative values and Trzaskowski drawing support from liberal voters for his pledges to back abortion and LGBTQ rights.
Far-right candidates Slawomir Mentzen and Grzegorz Braun together accounted for more than 21 percent of the vote, a historically high percentage, winning widespread support from young voters. It is not clear who their votes will go to in the second round.
“We need to talk to everyone, arguments are the most important. I am glad that many young people went to vote, but the big challenge is to convince them to vote for me,” Trzaskowski told reporters.
Nawrocki said he will fight for the votes of people on both sides of the political landscape.
Wojciech Przybylski, the head of the Res Publica foundation, said the far right’s strong showing “means that Trzaskowski can’t be absolutely sure of winning”.
“The run-off result will depend on turnout and mobilisation among youths who voted for Mentzen” and leftist candidate Adrian Zandberg, he told the AFP news agency.
