Get all your news in one place.
100’s of premium titles.
One app.
Start reading
Daily Record
Daily Record
Sport
Gabriel McKay

Celtic and Rangers on Champions League alert as supercomputer calculates nightmare scenario chances

With European football on a break until February, thoughts return to the Scottish Premiership.

It's a huge title race this season, with the winner almost guaranteed an automatic place in next season's Champions League.

That has provided a massive incentive for Celtic and Rangers, though there is a scenario where they could be denied.

Two of the 24 automatic group stage places are reserved for the winners of the Champions League and Europa League.

If the winners of the former have already qualified for the group stage via their domestic league, then their place goes to the nation ranked 11th by coefficient - in this case Scotland.

If, however, the Champions League winners fail to qualify then Celtic or Rangers would miss out on an automatic place and go into the play-off round.

Not since Chelsea in 2012 has the winner of UEFA's flagship competition failed to qualify via their domestic league, but what are the chances of it happening this time?

The statistics website FiveThirtyEight uses a complex algorithm to make predictions about competitions across the world.

We've crunched the numbers on domestic leagues and the Champions League to work out how likely it is that one of the 16 teams left fails to qualify despite lifting the trophy.

Bayern Munich

The current favourites for the Champions League are in almost no dangers of failing to qualify for next season's competition.

They've won the Bundesliga for the last eight years in a row and the model believes they're just a six per cent chance they fail to this season.

Even in that scenario they'd have to fall out of the top four, which FiveThirtyEight believes to be so unlikely it's statistically almost zero.

Chance of missing top four: Less than one per cent

Chance of winning Champions League: 23 per cent

Manchester City

Pep Guardiola has been looking to get his hands on the big cup for a third time ever since he left Barcelona.

His side made the final last season and are one of the favourites to go all the way this time.

Barring an unprecedented disaster though they're going to finish in the top four in the Premier League so there's nothing to worry about for the Scottish champions.

Chance of missing top four: Less than one per cent

Chance of winning Champions League: 20 per cent

Liverpool

Liverpool are another team who can have serious designs on the trophy but aren't going to fall out of the top four.

With Mohamed Salah on red-hot form they could go all the way in Europe and domestically.

(VI Images via Getty Images)

The numbers say the chance of them winning the Champions League is about one in five, but they'll qualify for next season's competition anyway.

Chance of missing top four: Less than one per cent

Chance of winning Champions League: 19 per cent

Paris Saint-Germain

Given they're 11 points clear at the top of Ligue 1 there's not a chance that PSG will fall out of France's top three.

The model doesn't give Lionel Messi, Neymar and Kylian Mbappé much chance of guiding the capital club to Champions League glory but that won't matter Celtic or Rangers.

Chance of missing top three: Less than one per cent

Chance of winning Champions League: three per cent

Ajax

Should Ajax fail to win the Eredivisie they would have to go through two rounds of qualifying to make it to the group stage.

FiveThirty eight believes there's only a 13 per cent chance of that, while there's only a two per cent chance of them falling out of the top two.

Despite the numbers giving them an 11 per cent chance of winning the competition, they won't need to do that to qualify again.

Chance of missing top two: Two per cent

Chance of winning Champions League: 11 per cent

RB Salzburg

Two things are pretty much certain: Salzburg will win the Austrian Bundesliga and they won't win the Champions League.

Taking the title would put them in the group stage automatically and second would be enough to secure qualification.

Chance of missing top two: Three per cent

Chance of winning Champions League: Less than one per cent

Sporting

Sporting are a proud club with a great history but there's not too much to worry about on this score.

The Portuguese side will make it to the top three and if they were to win Europe's top competition it would be a massive shock.

Chance of missing top three: Four per cent

Chance of winning Champions League: Less than one per cent

Inter

Simone Inzaghi's side have been touted as potential dark horses to win the Champions League.

The numbers give them a four per cent chance of repeating their 2010 success.

However, Inter are given a 95% chance of qualifying via Serie A so it would take a big turnaround for that to be an issue.

Chance of missing top four: Five per cent

Chance of winning Champions League: four per cent

Chelsea

Chelsea are another team who have an outside chance of winning the Champions League, but like Inter it's very unlikely they'll fall out of the top four.

Thomas Tuchel's side haven't been in great form recently, so that top four position is one to keep an eye on, but their eight per cent chance of retaining the trophy they lifted last season isn't any cause for alarm as it stands.

Chance of missing top four: Five per cent

Chance of winning Champions League: eight per cent

Lille

The bad news: if Lille win the Champions League there's just an 11 per cent chance that Rangers or Celtic will get the automatic Champions League place.

The good news: Lille aren't going to win the Champions League.

Chance of missing top three: 79 per cent

Chance of winning Champions League: Less than one per cent

Benfica

There's at least a puncher's chance that Benfica won't qualify via the Portuguese league, but that remains very unlikely.

FiveThirtyEight also gives them next to no chance of winning in Europe - and it's not just the algorithm that's against them.

(Carlos Rodrigues - UEFA/UEFA via Getty Images)

Legend has it the Lisbon side are cursed after legendary coach Bela Guttman, having won back-to-back European Cups, asked for a pay rise and was denied it.

He's said to have declared "Not in a hundred years from now will Benfica ever be European champions again". They've lost in eight finals since, despite Eusebio and fans visiting his grave to ask for forgiveness ahead of the 1990 Europea Cup final.

Chance of missing top three: nine per cent

Chance of winning Champions League: Less than one per cent

Villarreal

They may be the Europa League holders, but the algorithm gives Villarreal almost no chance of lifting the big one this season.

That's good news for the Scottish champions, as there's currently only an eight per cent chance of them qualifying again.

Chance of missing top four: 92 per cent

Chance of winning Champions League: less than one per cent

Manchester United

This is where things could potentially start getting interesting.

By the numbers United have only a 26 per cent chance of the top four as things stand.

They're also rated at a one in 100 chance to win the Champions League but if Ralf Rangnick can turn things around and Cristiano Ronaldo does what he does on a European night you wouldn't feel safe betting against it.

Chance of missing top four: 74 per cent

Chance of winning Champions League: one per cent

Atletico Madrid

The Spanish champions have struggled this season and currently have just over a 25 per cent chance of failing to finish in the top four.

That's a worrying proposition if you're Rangers or Celtic, even if their 2 per cent chance of European glory is hardly odds-on.

Diego Simeone has taken them to the brink before though, with two finals, so Atleti are one to keep an eye on.

Chance of missing top four: 27 per cent

Chance of winning Champions League: two per cent

Juventus

As things stand Juve are the most dangerous to Scotland's chances of an automatic group stage place next season.

A poor Serie A start has left them seven points adrift of a top four place, but Max Allegri's side have been better in Europe.

They won five of six games to top their group, though they were thrashed by Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.

Allegri reached the final in 2015 and 2017, and while going all the way is unlikely they're currently the biggest danger of a Champions League and non-qualification double.

Chance of missing top four: 60 per cent

Chance of winning Champions League: two per cent

Sign up to read this article
Read news from 100’s of titles, curated specifically for you.
Already a member? Sign in here
Related Stories
Top stories on inkl right now
One subscription that gives you access to news from hundreds of sites
Already a member? Sign in here
Our Picks
Fourteen days free
Download the app
One app. One membership.
100+ trusted global sources.