Caterpillar warned in a late-Thursday filing that its bill from Trump tariffs imposed in 2025 will range from $500 million to $600 million in Q3, an extra $100 million compared to its outlook on Aug. 5. Caterpillar stock was the biggest loser on the Dow Jones Industrial Average in early Friday stock market action, as Dow and S&P 500 futures both pointed modestly lower.
Caterpillar said the higher-than-expected impact stems from "several additional clarifications and additional tariffs" announced since Aug. 5. Part of the effect may relate to Trump's Aug. 15 order expanding steel and aluminum tariffs to more than 400 additional product lines.
Expanded Trump Tariffs
"Basically, if it's shiny, metallic, or remotely related to steel or aluminum, it's probably on the list," Brian Baldwin, vice president of customs at logistics company Kuehne + Nagel International, wrote on LinkedIn.
Caterpillar said it now expects the total impact from Trump tariffs to range from $1.5 billion to $1.8 billion for all of 2025, up from the outlook of $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion announced on Aug. 5.
The estimate suggests the additional hit to CAT earnings could double to $200 million in Q4. Caterpillar said it now expects its full-year adjusted operating profit margin to be near the bottom of its target range.
Caterpillar Stock
Shares of the Dow Jones stock fell 3% to 422 in early Friday stock market action. If that holds, CAT would be set to open just below its 21-day exponential moving average, though still in a buy range after its breakout on July 23.
Dow Jones and S&P 500 futures are off 0.3% after both closed at record highs on Thursday.
Be sure to read IBD's The Big Picture column after each trading day to get the latest on the prevailing stock market trend and what it means for your trading decisions.
