For the second year running, Cardiff City are staring down the barrel of another relegation fight as we near the halfway point of the season. It's an uncomfortable truth, but avoiding the drop is something fans are already talking about, even this early on in the campaign.
Twenty-one games have already passed us by and the Bluebirds are once again on their second manager of the season and have won just seven times since the league began at the end of July.
Goals are the glaring problem. The defence, largely, is standing up to scrutiny, with 10 teams having conceded more goals than Cardiff. But the face-smacking fact is that Cardiff are the worst attacking team in the league when it comes to putting the ball in the back of the net.
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It was a problem Cardiff fans recognised at the start of the season. Callum Robinson was the white knight on deadline day, signed for £1.5million from West Brom, the Republic of Ireland international lumbered with the weighty burden of scoring the lion's share of City's goals.
Because a quick look at Cardiff's other attacking options is utterly alarming. Robinson aside, Cardiff's forward options have stats which read as follows:
- Sheyi Ojo: 12 goals in 130 Championship appearances
- Callum O'Dowda: 10 goals in 179 Championship appearances
- Mark Harris: Nine goals in 73 Championship appearances
- Rubin Colwill: Five goals in 49 Championship appearances
- Jaden Philogene: Three goals in 25 Championship appearances
- Isaak Davies: Two goals in 28 Championship appearances
- Max Watters: One goal in 22 Championship appearances
- Gavin Whyte: One goal in 40 Championship appearances
- Kion Etete: No goals in nine Championship appearances
Breaking that down further, it means that Cardiff's forwards and wingers, with Robinson out of the equation, have 43 goals in 555 Championship games . That means, on average, one of the above scores a goal every 13 games. Pretty stark reading.
At set-piece time, too, Cardiff have lost their aerial threat. If Cedric Kipre doesn't latch on to the end of a free-kick or corner, Cardiff can forget about it. The Bluebirds are 23rd in the table when it comes to scoring set-piece goals, having scored only three from such situations, which includes Ryan Wintle's direct free-kick goal away to Wigan Athletic.
Cardiff's midfield aren't particularly weighing in with goals either. There is an issue there, too.
Put together, it means the Bluebirds are last in the goals scored column; no team has scored fewer than the Bluebirds' 17.
Robinson, to his credit, has a far more palatable record in the second tier, having netted 45 times in 204 games. He has played a fair portion of that on the wing, too, which makes it more commendable. He knew when he came to Cardiff that he would be the main man, but he needs far more help from his team-mates than the above statistics show.
The Bluebirds are too easy to defend against. The theme of the season has been that Cardiff look good until they get to within 25 yards of the opposition goal, then that final pass or shot lacks the required conviction.
The ball is worked into dangerous positions before it is shipped out wide, where decent service is sometimes delivered by Cardiff's wingers or Mahlon Romeo, whose crossing has been impressive this term. But giant opposition centre-backs are finding it so comfortable to deal with the danger. They tower over Cardiff's diminutive forward line and can clear the danger with ease.
When the chances do fall their way, Cardiff are nowhere near clinical enough to make them count.
Against Sunderland, the Bluebirds produced arguably their best half of football before the break. The score at half-time? 0-0. The murmur around the press box during the break that day was: "It would be typical Cardiff to lose this one after a first half like that."
Fortunately, that day, it wasn't the case. Mark Harris produced a neat little finish from a low Romeo cross and Cardiff survived a late barrage from Sunderland to grab three points. In honesty, it should have been far, far easier, because they played well! They should have been out of sight. On another day, they come away from that with just a point.
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At half-time during the Sheffield United game on Saturday, the general feeling was similar to that of Sunderland - however the Bluebirds were not able to make their dominance count this time and the Blades, like good teams, found a way to win.
While Mark Hudson says goalscoring is something they will work on over the mid-season break, unfortunately there seems to be no short-term fix. Goals are, typically, a commodity you have to buy. And that is an issue at the minute.
Vincent Tan's hope of reaching the play-offs this season is fanciful at best with the lack of firepower up front in this current squad. Money needs to be pumped into the squad in January to stave off relegation at this point, let alone mount a play-off charge. But while Tan said help would be afforded to Hudson in the winter transfer window, the required sums for quality additions are unlikely to be available.
Sheffield United, for instance, had £23m Rhian Brewster and £20m Oli McBurnie missing on Saturday, but still had Championship striker extraordinaire Billy Sharp on the pitch. They also had James McAtee, one of the most gifted talents in Manchester City's academy, to come off the bench. That's a forward line fit for a promotion charge.
The crux of it is that the teams who tend to go up to the Premier League every year have spent money on their squad - and have highly-thought-of or experienced managers in charge. Cardiff's last three managers have been interim or stop-gap, which have turned into more permanent roles thereafter.
The huge cost-cutting exercise has taken a toll on the playing squad, manager and, ultimately, the club's league position. It is no coincidence that Cardiff have slid down the table year on year as investment has dried up.
Hudson, for what it's worth, comes across like a calming influence. He knows the predicament he is in and has taken over in difficult circumstances, with a brand-new squad and a team languishing at the bottom of the league. It's nothing new for him, he did it twice at Huddersfield Town and now he is the boss at Cardiff, having signed a permanent contract ahead of the defeat by the Blades.
He is a club legend from his playing days and as such will be afforded a little more leniency from City fans, but the unshakable feeling is that Cardiff are trapped in a tailspin, with their league position sliding further downwards.
With such a new squad this season, it has taken this chunk of games to make a more considered assessment of individual players. Some have emerged as decent signings, others don't look up to the required standard, especially if Tan is genuinely hopeful of getting into the top six any time soon.
The saving grace is that the Championship is still so tight. Cardiff are seven points off the play-offs, even if they are one point off the drop zone. There is ample time to turn this around.
They have also not been able to call upon their most creative talent in Rubin Colwill as much as they would have liked. He should be given the reins at No.10 by Hudson, not stuck out on the wing as he was against Sheffield United, to try and unlock defences centrally, rather than bombarding the box with crosses.
Romaine Sawyers and Sheyi Ojo have just not cut it in that position so far. And nor have the midfielders when put there, either.
Isaak Davies' return will be welcomed, too. Cardiff have missed his blistering pace out wide and there is hope he can play a big part in the back half of the season, just to give defences something else to think about and potentially open up space for others.
But while there are some speckles of positivity to look for, there is no substitute for bringing in proven Championship quality. Someone to ease the goalscoring burden on Callum Robinson. He can't do it on his own. It's my belief the squad needs more money pumped in to arrest the perennial slide.
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