Candidates in the Virginia special election to succeed the late Democratic Rep. Gerald E. Connolly are facing a sprint, especially compared with their counterparts looking to fill other open House seats this year.
While those running for a vacant seat in Arizona will have had months to campaign before their July primary, the Democrats who’ve announced bids to complete Connolly’s term have less than a month to officially campaign for their party’s nomination for Virginia’s 11th District ahead of a September special election.
They include James Walkinshaw, Connolly’s former chief of staff and now a member of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors; state Sen. Stella Pekarsky; state Del. Irene Shin; Fairfax County Planning Commissioner Candice Bennett; attorney Amy Roma; former Democratic National Committee member and onetime Venezuelan legislator Leo Martínez; health care entrepreneur Dan Lee; Navy veteran Josh Aisen; and former CIA operations officer Amy Papanu.
The nominee will be chosen in a so-called party-run firehouse primary on June 28, for which three days of early voting begins next Tuesday. Republicans will pick their candidate in a canvass of their own on the same day, but the Democratic nominee will be strongly favored in the Sept. 9 general election for the Northern Virginia district with a sizable population of federal workers. Kamala Harris carried the seat by 34 points last year, according to calculations by The Downballot.
Stephen Farnsworth, a political science professor at the University of Mary Washington, said the primary electorate will likely be small, but highly motivated.
“We’re talking about the most intense partisans participating,” he said. “The road to success may very well be who can demonstrate the greatest dislike and the most aggressive challenges to President Trump.”
The primary also comes a little over a week after Virginia voters pick their nominees for state legislative and executive positions ahead of the commonwealth’s November elections. Virginia is one of two states, along with New Jersey, that hold statewide elections in the year after a presidential contest.
Primary landscape
The quick nature of the campaign gives an advantage to candidates who already have a base of support within the district, likely boosting those who have previously run for office and already have a campaign infrastructure.
“Obviously it’s a very fast election, which makes it very difficult for people who don’t already have some kind of base, some kind of name ID and ability to raise money to get their message out there and knock on doors and talk to voters,” Pekarsky said in a Tuesday interview.
Pekarsky, who won election to the state Senate in 2023 after serving on the Fairfax County Public Schools board, said she got into the special election in response to frustrations with the Trump administration.
She also said it was important for Northern Virginia to have a woman representing the area in Congress, which it no longer does after Democrats Abigail Spanberger and Jennifer Wexton did not seek reelection last year.
Pekarsky, who has support from Democratic leaders in the state Senate, said she thought the primary would come down to “who got their message and who was able to get their people out on short notice.”
Walkinshaw, meanwhile, is considered the front-runner and is highlighting his decade of experience as Connolly’s top aide, as well as the endorsement the congressman gave him before he died last month just weeks after announcing that his esophageal cancer had returned. Walkinshaw also boasts the support of Wexton and Rep. Donald S. Beyer Jr. and said in an interview that his record was “resonating very powerfully with Democratic voters” across the district.
“People want to see Democrats standing up and speaking out and fighting back against the Trump administration,” he said, adding that district voters were “highly knowledgeable” about Congress and Washington. “It’s not just about fighting. It’s about ‘Do you have the experience and the knowledge to know how to be strategic and effective in fighting the Trump administration?’”
A poll released last week by a super PAC supporting Walkinshaw found him leading with 41 percent of the Democratic vote, while Pekarsky had 8 percent and Shin 6 percent. Thirty-six percent of voters were undecided.
Roma, whose legal career has focused on energy policy, says in an ad airing on local cable and streaming services that her background will help her be an effective counter to the Trump administration’s agenda.
“Donald Trump is dismantling the government piece by piece,” she says in a television spot. “I’ve spent my career using the law to make things happen in Washington. I know Congress, I know our federal agencies and I know our systems inside and out. And I know how to use all those levers of power to stop Trump’s agenda.”
Shin has the backing of Leaders We Deserve, the political action committee run by gun control activist David Hogg, who left his position as a DNC vice chair last week. New Jersey Sen. Andy Kim has also endorsed Shin’s campaign, giving her a boost from a candidate who took on his state’s political establishment last year and won.
In a June 10 update on her campaign website, likely aimed at supportive outside groups, Shin’s operation said that voters in Burke and Centreville “need to see ads on non-broadcast TV (streaming and YouTube) and on prestige news outlets ads that show that Irene Shin is an effective progressive who has taken on establishment ‘business as usual’ politicians and won – and she will do the same in Congress.”
The update also urged allies to help ensure Asian American voters, who make up about 20 percent of the district, know that Shin is the daughter of Korean immigrants.
Martínez has the backing of the Latino Victory Fund, a group he helped found.
Some of the candidates have benefited from outside spending, according to Federal Election Commission filings as of close of business Tuesday.
Fight for Virginia’s Future has spent $351,000 supporting Walkinshaw through advertisements, calls and mailings. Another group called People Over Monopolies has spent $56,000 on digital ads and mailers supporting Shin. And SD PAC spent $113,000 on direct mail and TV advertisements to support Pekarsky.
Focus on federal workers
The Fairfax County-based 11th District has one of the highest percentages of federal workers, and Connolly was known as an advocate for federal workers throughout his time in the House.
With thousands of federal jobs lost since January under the Trump administration, it’s an issue that’s resonating in the special election.
The National Federation of Federal Employees has endorsed Walkinshaw, who pointed to his work alongside Connolly to support federal workers.
“There aren’t a lot of champions, vocal champions, for federal employees in Congress, and my commitment is, I hope, to have a long career in Congress and to be a long-term champion for federal workers, just as Gerry Connolly was,” he said.
Pekarksy, who has the endorsement of the Fairfax County Federation of Teachers, said nearly everyone in the district had either been touched directly or knew someone who was affected by federal layoffs this year.
“It is on everyone’s mind,” she said. “A lot of what I hear when I talk with people, the fear is real and people want to know how are you going to stand up? Will you be a strong voice?”
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