Weekly European Commodity Winners
Crude Oil Brent (CBQ25), +9.23%
The contract finally broke the range between $59.70-62.70 with an explosive move over the weekend due to the sudden confrontation in Iran-Israel. The latest rally has been driven almost totally by that event, so expect maximum volatility and a reversal anytime.
On the fundamental side, there's not much in the way of catalysts for higher prices:
- U.S. production remains elevated: Weekly adjustments raised domestic crude output by ~7 kbd, and overall production is near a record.
- The current conflict has not affected oil exports globally so far.
- Global demand growth is slowing: IEA projects demand growth will decline from ~0.99 mbd in Q1 to ~0.65 mbd through the rest of 2025.
Technically, the range between $62.50-66.20 has been reliable, with only 2 exceptions since April. Prices were locked inside the 10-, 20-, and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) waiting for direction. From June 11, we have the first breakout to the upside. The most recent breakout and whatever follows, in keeping with the new trend, will only be driven by the news on the conflict.
Looking at the forward curve we see a steep "backwardation" pattern with prices well below $70 already from December 2025. This again confirms the idea the current jump is short term.
Technical traders should keep $75 as a key resistance level to watch for the next week.
UK Natural Gas (NFN25), +7.96%
Norway’s Langeled pipeline continues to supply unhindered, providing around 20% of UK demand. LNG imports remain robust as the UK sources gas globally to offset reduced Russian pipeline supply. The current capacity is ~6.5% below the 5‑year average.
Cooler-than-expected weather has suppressed demand for heating, lowering short-term pressure. Added to that, renewables account for about 35% of UK electricity and gas covers just 20.5% of power demand.
As for Europe, its storage sits near 52% of capacity (below the typical 62%), reflecting tighter regional conditions. For the first time since February 2025, we see prices breaking out to the upside of the 50-day EMA, which is a bullish move and well-supported with higher-than-average volume. UK natural gas was locked in a range of $79.50-88.20 from the start of May until the last 2 sessions.
As long as prices remain above the 50-day EMA, this contract has more upside potential.
Weekly European Commodity Decliners
Robusta Coffee 10-T (RMU25), -5.82%
The drop in robusta futures prices keeps surprising the markets. Vietnam is currently facing post-drought recovery with better expectations for the current crop. It exported around 813 k MT of coffee Jan–May 2025, down 1.8% YoY, but USDA projects output will rise.
According to this same report, output will rise by around 7% in 2025–26 to a 4‑year high. The forward curve is sharply pointing downwards for the next 2 years, confirming the market expects a better supply ahead.
Technicals are in a clear downtrend, with prices below the 10-day, 20-day, and 50-day EMAs. Having said that, and watching the candle patterns (in particular, a bullish hammer over the last 2 sessions), it looks like the decline is attempting a pause. The 10-day EMA remains a solid resistance, so we need to see a breakout to declare a change in trend.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 28 (oversold), and all signs point to a bottom. Long traders have an edge according to the technicals, at least for the short term.
Nickel 3M Cash (P8Y00), -2.28%
Indonesia now represents 63% of global nickel production with more projects coming soon. According to Reuters, it is expected that the surplus will continue into 2027–28, driven by heavy output and slowing battery demand.
The main issue is that higher adoption of lithium‑iron‑phosphate (LFP) batteries has cut the forecast for nickel demand from the electric vehicle (EV) industry by around a third.
Despite the above, many projects are unprofitable below $15,000/t, where about 25–50% of producers are losing money.
LME spot curves futures pricing hints at gradual strength, but Q2 remains pressured. The forward curve is pointing upward, indicating that the current oversupply could be only for the short term.
The metal is approaching a critical support level at 15,000 that has been tested 5 times since December 2024 and broken only once. Prices are below the 10-day, 20-day, and 50-day EMAs, so the direction is down. The 14-day RSI is at 39.88, and historically values close to 35 have produced turning points.
Long traders should watch out for the next move, as this chart seems to be approaching a bottom.
