Andy Burnham could stop Labour haemorrhaging so much support in London to the Green Party and Liberal Democrats, according to a new poll.
The Savanta survey for the Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London (QMUL), put Labour on 31% for Westminster voting intention, the Conservatives 19%, Greens 18%, Reform UK 16%, Lib Dems 10%, and independents and other parties 5%.
“Labour have lost about a quarter of their support since 2024 but remain comfortably the most popular party in the capital,” said Dr Eoghan Kelly, a postdoctoral researcher in British politics at QMUL.
The findings could see Labour ending up with 28 MPs in London, less than half the 59 that it won at the general election two years ago, as the Greens and Reform make major breakthroughs after their May local election successes.
Justice Secretary David Lammy may lose in Tottenham, as could Communities Secretary Steve Reed in Streatham and Croydon North, and former Health Secretary Wes Streeting in Ilford North, the QMUL analysis suggests.
Zack Polanski’s Green Party could win 13 seats, the Tories 12, Nigel Farage’s Reform 11, Lib Dems six and independents five.
But the poll also found that 25% of London voters said they were more likely to back Labour under Mr Burnham than Sir Keir Starmer.
Dr Kelly said: “This is good news for Burnham as a quarter of Green and Lib Dem voters stated that they were now more likely to vote Labour.”
Seventeen per cent of Londoners said they were less likely to support Labour with the former Greater Manchester Mayor at the helm of the party.
Twelve per cent said they would vote Labour anyway, according to the survey which was carried out after Sir Keir’s resignation.
But Labour is still facing battles on multiple fronts.
“Labour’s decline opens doors to all the other parties but in very different parts of the capital,” explained Dr Kelly.
“The Greens are up 8% since 2024 and will be in contention for seats in places like Newham, Hackney and Lewisham.
“Support for the Conservatives is down slightly but they stand to gain seats in west London, and outer boroughs in the north west.”
He added: “Reform could pick up some seats in eastern outer boroughs, in Bromley, Bexley and Havering.
“The Liberal Democrats are about the same as in 2024 but could gain seats from Labour in the south west.”
With the surge in support for the Greens and Reform, fracturing the largely two-party British politics of past decades, many of the seats are difficult to predict with 20 to 25 showing the winner less than five per cent ahead of the second place, and very few outright majorities.
But the Greens could win Dulwich and West Norwood, Hackney North and Stoke Newington, Hackney South and Shoreditch, Islington South and Finsbury, and Lewisham North, according to the QMUL analysis.
Mr Polanski’s party could also gain Lewisham West and East Dulwich, Leyton and Wanstead, Poplar and Limehouse, Peckham, Streatham and Croydon North, Stratford and Bow, Tottenham and Walthamstow.
Reform, which has been hit by the furore over Mr Farage resigning as MP to fight a by-election in Clacton, could win Barking, Bexleyheath and Crayford, Bromley and Biggin Hill, Croydon East, Dagenham and Rainham, Eltham and Chislehurst, Feltham and Heston, Old Bexley and Sidcup, Orpington, Romford, as well as Hornchurch and Upminster.
Jeremy Corbyn may retain his Islington North seat, with independents also possibly winning in Ilford North, Bethnal Green and Stepney, Chingford and Woodford Green, and East Ham.
The Conservatives could win back from Labour the Cities of London and Westminster, Kensington and Bayswater, Chelsea and Fulham, Chipping Barnet, Hendon, as well as Finchley and Golders Green, but may also lose a string of seats to Reform.
Kemi Badenoch’s party could also gain Brent West and Harrow West from Labour.
The Lib Dems may hold Kingston and Surbiton, Richmond Park, Twickenham, Sutton and Cheam, Carshalton and Wallington, as well as Wimbledon.
* Savanta interviewed 1,038 Londoners aged 18+ online between 30th June and July 8th. Data are weighted.
