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Bull vs bear: Top 5 triggers that may dictate stock market this week

By Asit Manohar
Bull vs bear: Rupee falling to record low against US dollar, triggered fresh selling by FIIs, say stock market experts.

Advising investors to avoid any kind of hurry and concluding about the market bottom, Ruchit Jain, Lead Research at 5paisa.com said, "The sectoral indices too have not yet shown any signs of reversal or bottoming out. The Banking index showed some relative strength at the start of the week but ultimately it resumed the downtrend on the weekly expiry day and the day after. Thus, the trend here too remains negative and since there’s no divergence seen yet, one should not be in a hurry to bottom-fish."

Speaking on the major triggers that may dictate stock market next week, Anuj Gupta, Vice President — Research at IIFL Securities said, "The week ended on Friday was the worst in last two years. Dollar index rising to record 20 years high and crash in commodity prices were one of the major reason for equity market crash this week. These two are expected to keep dictating the global markets including Dalal Street next week as wll. One has to keep an eye on the upcoming company results as well."

Here we list out top 5 triggers that may dictate stock market next week:

1] Dollar Index: The impressive surge in the dollar index continued this month and the index surged to 230-year high this week. So, investors are fishing out money from equity and other investment instruments and pumping money in US dollar. So, movement of the index will be crucial in immediate term and hence investors and traders are advised to keep a hawk eye on dollar index.

2] Crash in commodity price: "Commodity prices suddenly crashed last week, bringing down the metal stocks. Stocks like SAIL, VEDL, and HINDALCO were the worst-performing previous week's stocks. The direction of the commodity prices and the continuation of volatility will decide the fate of Metals and linked sectors," said Sonam Srivastava, Founder at Wright Research.

3] Rupee vs dollar: "Last week, Indian National Rupee (INR) tumbled to record low triggered fresh selling by FIIs. If rupee continues to remain weak then FIIs selling may further pick up momentum and hence rupee-dollar deviations is an important factor that may dictate stock market next week." said Anuj Gupta of IIFL Security.

4] US retail sales data: It is going to affect US dollar directly and any ease in dollar may spark profit-booking in dollar. So, US retail sales data is an important factor that may impact stock market next week.

5] Q4 results: "We are in the middle of the earnings season. Many companies, including IOC, DLF, ITC, Lupin, etc., will post earnings next week, which could decide the fates of many sectors," said Sonam Srivastava of Wright Research.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint.

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Dive Deeper:
Gold gets cheaper: 5 key trigger points to move yellow metal this week
In India, a 24 carat gold in 10 gram is priced at ₹50,450 down by ₹220 from the previous closing…
Oversold markets due for pullback, LIC listing will be key sentimental factor
Stock market week ahead: Most of the momentum indicators are trading in oversold territory; therefore, we can expect a bounceback…
In a volatile market, what should investors look for this week
In the last five trading sessions, investors' wealth on BSE has been wiped out to the tune of ₹13,83,637.96 crore.…
Soaring inflation gives investors the jitters, stocks continue dive
Fears of aggressive interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve following unexpectedly high inflation in the world’s largest economy…
One subscription that gives you access to news from hundreds of sites
Foreign investors' selling continues; pull out ₹25,200 cr in May so far
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) remained net sellers for seven months to April 2022, withdrawing a massive net amount of over…
Sensex crashes 1,158 points; Nifty ends at 15,808: Top reasons behind today's fall
NEW DELHI: Equity indices plunged for the 5th straight session on Thursday with the benchmark BSE sensex crashing over 1,000…
Get all your news in one place